Dr. Joseph Hagg Science Officer Adapta/on Scotland An Introduc5on: Climate Change Adapta5on 13 th February 2013 contact: joseph.hagg@sepa.org.uk
Adapta5on Scotland Partnership: Increase the resilience of organisa0ons and infrastructure in Scotland to meet the challenges and opportuni0es presented by the impacts of climate change
Part One: An Introduc:on to Adapta:on
change is constant social poli5cal environmental climate economic legal technological
change is constant 2012 2020s 2050s 2080s 22 nd Century
change is constant 2012 2020s 2050s 2080s 22 nd Century
change is constant 1929 Clean Air (Scotland) Act 1956 1960 1998 1999 Living Memory 1930s 1960s 1990s 2004 2012 2020s 1904 1956 2008 1948 M. Richardson Edinburgh City Archives capital collec:ons 1994-2004 1927 2 Billion 1960 3 Billion 1974 4 Billion 1987 5 Billion 1999 6 Billion 2012 7 Billion
change is constant 1929 Clean Air (Scotland) Act 1956 1960 1998 1999 Living Memory 1930s 1960s 1990s 2004 2012 2020s 1904 1956 2008 1948 M. Richardson Edinburgh City Archives capital collec:ons 1994-2004 1927 2 Billion 1960 3 Billion 1974 4 Billion 1987 5 Billion 1999 6 Billion 2012 7 Billion
Adapta5on to Climate Change Adapta5on: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected clima:c change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportuni:es. Scotland s Climate Change Adapta:on Framework (2009) The climate is changing and we need to be ready...... adapta:on means we prepare for the future to deal with threats and take advantage of opportuni:es.
The Challenge The Vision The Journey How will our climate change? What impact will this have on us? What would a climate ready place look like? How do we get there?
The Challenge The Vision The Journey
The Challenge The Vision The Journey
The Challenge How will our climate change? What impact will this have on us? Climate Informa5on: Understanding Impacts: Risk Assessment:
The Vision What would a climate ready place look like? Our Response to the Challenge: What should we do??? Visions and Placemaking:
The Vision
The Vision
The Vision
The Vision
The Vision Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo- edited by Land Use Consultants
The Vision Original image: SNH (Lorne Gill) Photo- edited by Land Use Consultants
The Vision What would a climate ready place look like? Our Response to the Challenge: What should we do??? Visions and Placemaking: Link to Other Priori5es:
The Journey How do we realise the vision? What is the role of planning? What direct measures can planning take? How can planning support other ini5a5ves? How do we ensure on- the- ground ac5on?
what are we doing today? Presenta:on: Climate Informa:on (coming up) Ac:vity 1: Understanding Impacts The Challenge Ac:vity 2: Developing a Vision The Vision The Journey TAYplan Workshop 2 WARNING: This is an introduc:on to s:mulate thinking unfortunately adapta:on to climate change cannot be solved in a workshop!!
Part Two: Informa:on on Climate Change
Arc:c Sea Ice Minimum Jetstream North America 2012 Global Weather
We ve already seen the global climate change 4 3 Global Surface Warming ( C) 2 1 0-1 1900 2000 2100 Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR- 4
Recent change in mean temperature (1961 to 2006)
Recent change in rainfall (1961 to 2006)
Rainfall in 2012 Annual Spring Summer Autumn December
Rainfall has increased over the last 50 years... This increase is mostly due to heavier rainfall on wet days (rather than more wet days) Winter (1961-1995) Source: CRU info sheet 15 Change in Total Precipita:on Change in Number of Wet Days Change in Average Precipita:on On Wet Days In London extreme rainfall events occurred once every 30 years before 1960 - and once every 6 years since then... source: Lloyds (2010)
Are we adapted to today s climate? Adapta5on to Present Climate or Weather Adapta5on to Future Climate Change
Projec5ons of Future Global Climate Global Surface Warming ( C) 4 3 2 1 0 High Growth (A2) Medium Growth (A1B) Low Growth (B1) Constant CO 2 (held at 2000 levels) - 1 1900 2000 2100 Source: adapted from NASA Earth Observatory data IPCC 2007 WG1 AR- 4
What do we know about Scotland s Future Climate? Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate and how humans are changing it...... and we con:nue to improve on this. Scotland has access to world leading informa:on the UK Climate Projec:ons - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. h`p://ukclimateprojec5ons.defra.gov.uk/
The key long- term climate change trends for Scotland are: Average summer is hojer and drier Average winter / autumn is milder and wejer Weather will remain variable (e.g. year- to- year), it may become more variable We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipita:on events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise
à hojer summers à à drier summers à à milder winters à 2050s
UKCP09: Probability Level 90% Projected Change in Mean Temperature (ºC) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 Jul likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 5 Jun 10% Aug change in mean temperature (ºC) 4 3 2 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 hojer cooler
UKCP09: Probability Level 90% Projected Change in Mean Temperature (ºC) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 Jul likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 5 Jun 10% Aug change in mean temperature (ºC) 4 3 2 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 hojer cooler
What difference do a few degrees make? Isle of Wight 2.6 C warmer in summer than the Dundee (in baseline 1961-1990) 2050s So our summer temperatures may be more similar to those in southern England by the 2050s... 2080s... and unlike anything currently experienced in the UK by the 2080s
UKCP09: Probability Level 90% 60 Projected Change in Mean Precipita:on (%) for Perth in 2050s High Emissions (A1FI) - Grid 728 we`er we`er Nov likely 67% 50% 33% very likely 50 Jan Feb 10% 40 Dec change in mean precipita:on (%) 30 20 10 0-10 - 20 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct wejer drier - 30-40 - 50 drier
Changes in extreme rainfall
Are we loading the climate dice for extreme weather events?
The sea is rising... ITV 2008 Flood ITV 2008 Flood
UKCP09 Rela:ve Sea Level Rise Dundee 1.0 Relative Sea Level Rise (m) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 High Emissions (A1FI) Medium Emissions (A1B) Low Emissions (B1) 74.4 cm the range reflects scien:fic uncertainty in models High Emissions (A1FI) 0.0 Medium Emissions (A1B) Low Emissions (B1) 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 5.8 cm Should we consider the upper es:mates from UKCP09?
Records from Tidal Gauges in Scopsh Ports Recent analysis of :de gauge records at Scopsh Ports indicates that sea level is now increasing around Scotland...... and the rate of sea level rise appears to be increasing since 1992...... these recent trends would put Scotland on the 95% frequency high emissions of UKCP09 model outputs Rennie & Hansom (2010)
How does sea level rise impact on the coast? Sea level rise can lead to instability, erosion and reworking of coasts Rates of sea level rise >3-4 mm year can lead to widespread reorganisa:on of coastal landforms The response of a coastline will depend on the balance between sediment supply and sea level rise... retreat will occur when there is inadequate sediment supply to maintain the coast under condi:ons of sea level rise Most Scopsh coasts are sediment- supply limited due to terrestrial condi:ons (limi:ng erosion), natural coastal processes, and human altera:on of coastal sediment movement (breakwaters and embankments)
reworking??? complicated
The key long- term climate change trends for Scotland are: Average summer is hojer and drier Average winter / autumn is milder and wejer Weather will remain variable (e.g. year- to- year), it may become more variable We can also expect to see: Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipita:on events Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall Sea level rise
- please contact us - www.adapta5onscotland.org.uk adapta5onscotland@sniffer.org.uk Adapta5on Scotland Partnership: