1966-2 Fall Colloquium on the Physics of Weather and Climate: Regional Weather Predictability and Modelling 29 September - 10 October, 2008 Eta at INPE Sin Chan Chou Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos/INPE Brazil
Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia MCT Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos CPTEC Eta Model at INPE: Applications Sin Chan Chou INPE National Institute for Space Research chou@cptec.inpe.br +55 12 3186 8424 1
Eta Model at INPE operational since 1997 NWP characteristics Domain Most part of South America Southeast Brazil Northeast Brazil Resolution: 40 km/38 layers; 20km/38 layers; 10km/38 layers; 5km/50 layers NH Grid-point model Arakawa E grid and Lorenz grid Eta vertical coordinate (Mesinger, 1984) Prognostic variables: T, q, u, v, p s, TKE, cloud water/ice, hydrometeors Time integration: 2 level, split-explicit Adjustmet: forward-backward Advection: first forward and then centered Convection: 1. Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, 2. Kain-Fritsch scheme Stratiform rain: 1. Zhao scheme 2. Ferrier scheme Turbulence: Mellor Yamada 2.5, MO surface layer, Paulson functions Radiation: GFDL package Land surface scheme: NOAH scheme, 4 soil layers, Initial conditions NCEP T126L28 analyses, L.B.C. CPTEC T126L28 GCM, uptd 6/6 h, Initial soil moisture: 12h Global model forecast or climatology Initial albedo: seasonal climatology 2
Step mountains 3
Eta Vertical Coordinate sigma σ = P P S PT P T eta P P T η = *ηs PS PT P ηs = P ref ref ( z S ) P T T (0) P Mountain tops coincide with coordinate Mesinger, 1984 Step Mountains Developed to reduce errors in the calculation of horizontal derivatives, mainly pressure gradient forces, near mountains 4
Zonda Wind (foën wind) 5
Eta 40km and 20km Forecasts up to 7 days: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/ 24-h accum precipitation 2-m temperature and 10-m winds Vertical motion 6
Site Hourly Forecasts Precipitation Temperature Relative Humidity 10-m winds Mean Sea Level Pressure Cloud covers http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/ 7
Systematic evaluation of Eta Model forecasts Tower measurements Rmse geop Sfc obs Precip FAR Sfc obs Precip ETS Satellite images 8
hires HIGH RESOLUTION FORECASTS for Northeast Brazil Eta Model 10km 9
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECASTS for Serra do Mar : Eta Model 5km/ 50 layers Non hydrostatic run hires 1800 UTC 0800 UTC 10
SREPS Short Range Ensemble Prediction System SREPS Method: perturbed initial conditions The perturbed initial conditions are obtained from the ensemble weather forecasts generated by the CPTEC global model at T126L28 (GCM EPS); The perturbations of CPTEC GCM EPS are based on Empirical orthogonal Functions (EOF); These perturbations are applied to wind and temperature fields (at 850 hpa) in the tropical region; 15 members (1 control + 14 perturbations) are generated; Cluster analysis is applied and generates 4 groups. One representative member is extracted from each group. 11
Forecast valid on 08 december 2002 T+96h SREPS control mean obs m1 m2 m3 12 m4
C - previsão controle P + - perturbação positiva P - - perturbação negativa A - ensemble médio T - estado real da atmosfera Good ensemble, includes true state Bad Ensemble 13
SREPS HGT500 Talagrand diagrams in both experiments indicate satisfactory spread. All variables show spread magnitude smaller than RMSE. Inclusion of moisture perturbation showed improvement for the rain forecasts 14
Heavy rainfall in São Paulo State Rainfall over 80mm in Bauru on 15 February 2004. 15
IR Satellite Images 15Z 14feb 18Z 14feb 21Z 14feb 12Z 15feb 16
Precipitation (mm) - T+72h -IC Perturbations - 40km Mi1 Mi2 Mi3 Mi4 17
Precipitation (mm) - T+72h -IC Perturbations - 40km Ensemble Mean Precipitation forecast Cntrl =M5 Mean T+72h T+72h
Spread of Instability Indices CAPE BRNSHR 19
Eta Model Ensemble Forecasts South Atlantic Convergence Zone OBSERVATION ENSEMBLE mean FORECAST Accumulated Precipitation between 31/12/1999 05/01/2000 20
Eta Ensemble Forecast Products Probability forecasts Precip > 1mm Precip > 10mm Precip > 50mm ENSEMBLE FCSTS OBSERVATIONS 21
High Resolution Forecasts flood case Eta Model -10km Eta-10 km 24-h Forecast 22
Floods Early 2000 Forecast Accumulated Precipitation Eta Model January 02-06, 2000 Observed Precipitation January 02 06, 2000 23
Eta Model for Severe Weather Forecasts http://tucupi.cptec.inpe.br/serradomar/tabela.shtml 24
Instability Indices for Severe Weather > 1500Jkg 1 > 50 m2 s 2 < 150 m2 s 2 (HS) < 4 m2 s 2 (HS) X 1 > 1 25
> 35 oc < 5 oc > 40 oc SHR= V300 V700 26
Helicity Supercell Parameter 27
road safety Fog forecast Agriculture Frost forecast 28
Wind power mapping Mapping at 10m, 50m ou 100m ~50m 29 Forecasts at 10m, 50m ou 100m
7-day accumulated precipitation forecasts for hydropower short term operations 30
Seasonal Forecasts Poor s man model climatology 5-year 4,5 month integrations: 1996, 1997,1998,1999, 2000 seasonal forecasts Model seasonal climatology = anomaly forecast 31 FMA 2004 Assume: climatology and model systematic errors have been removed
http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/prev_clima/reg_eta_clima.shtml 32
Totais trimestrais de precipitação sobre a Bacia do São Francisco Previsões x Observações Eta Precipitação Bacia São Francisco Modelo Eta m1 m2 14 m3 12 m4 10 m5 8 m6 6 media 4 Eta20km 2 Obs 0 OND 1997 DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA Trimestres 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 GCM Precipitação Bacia do São Francisco 14 m2 12 m3 10 m4 8 m5 6 obs 4 m1 2 0 33 OND 1997 DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA AMJ JJA ASO OND DJF FMA 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 mm/dia mm/dia
12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Crop model driven by Eta model seasonal forecasts oct1999 - jun2000 forecast vs observed corn production - Piracicaba, SP Rendimento de grãos estimado (kg-ha-1) Rendimento de grãos observado (kg-ha-1) 34 kg.ha -1 15/10/1999 29/10/1999 12/11/1999 26/11/1999 10/12/1999 24/12/1999 7/1/2000 21/1/2000 4/2/2000 18/2/2000 3/3/2000 17/3/2000 31/3/2000 14/4/2000 28/4/2000 12/5/2000 26/5/2000 9/6/2000
Crop model driven by Eta model seasonal forecasts Obs corn production X Crop Model + Obs X Crop Model + Eta Corn Production Forecast Brasilia Corn Production Forecast Patos de Minas, MG 18.000 18.000 16.000 16.000 14.000 14.000 kg/hectare 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 Corn Obs - Max Crop Model + Obs Crop Model + Eta kg/hectare 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 Corn Obs - Max Ceop Model + Obs Crop Model + Eta years years Corn Production Forecast Cascavel, PR Corn Production Forecast Piracicaba, SP 14.000 16.000 12.000 14.000 10.000 12.000 kg/hectare 8.000 6.000 4.000 M Corn Obs - Max Crop Model + Obs Crop Model + Eta kg/hectare 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 Corn Obs - Max Crop Model + Obs Crop Model + Eta 2.000 2.000 0 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 years 0 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 years 35
Eta Climate Change Version!961 1990 obs 30 year Eta Model Present Climate Integration (HADCM3 Forcing) 30 year HADCM3 Present Climate Integration 36
Future developments in weather and climate of the Eta Model at INPE Short-range Ensemble forecasts with Eta Model: IC+phys, increase no of members Increase horizontal resolution in weather forecasts, Forecasts from OAGCM lateral boundary conditions, Extended range forecasts with the Eta and CPTEC GCM models, Eta seasonal forecasts climatology Ensemble seasonal forecasts using Eta Model IC+ phys Coupling with hydrological model High resolution SST input for weather prediction Improvements in physics parameterizations 37
http://www.cptec.inpe.br/etaweb updates 38
List of products addresses: Eta 40km and 20km Forecasts: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/ Eta 40km Ensemble Forecasts http://www6.cptec.inpe.br/iodopweb/ioweb/etaens_40km.shtml High resolution 5 km Southeast Brazil http://www.cptec.inpe.br/produtos_serramar/etaserra/index.html http://tucupi.cptec.inpe.br/serradomar/tabela.shtml (temporary) Eta Nordeste Brazil http://www.cptec.inpe.br/eta/produtos/prod_eta/eta_sx6/eta_ne/gif Seasonal forecasts http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/prev_clima/reg_eta_clima.shtml Climate Change scenarios http://www6.cptec.inpe.br/pnud_bra (soon) 39
Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos THANK YOU! Chou Sin Chan chou@cptec.inpe.br +55 12 3186 8424 16/10/2008 40