National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 20 December 2016 If you are new to the webinar: For audio: Dial in: 877-922-7940 Enter code: 8292275 then # Please put your phone on mute to avoid interfering with presenters We welcome comments, questions and discussion at the end of the webinar Welcome to the webinar!
National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 20 December 2016
Outline Welcome Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status, seasonal forecasts & outlooks David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater Paul Ankcorn, USGS Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SERFC ACF reservoir conditions Cynthia Donald, United States Army Corps of Engineers Summary and Discussion
Rainfall Last 14 Days
Current drought status
December Temperatures Average Temperature Rankings # Days of 80 or above
Rainfall Last 90 Days
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Extended Forecast ECMWF 45-day precip. Typical mid-winter La Nina
La Nina Hanging On Nino 3.4 index at -0.4 C, slightly above the -0.5 C threshold La Nina conditions since mid-july
La Nina Forecast La Nina advisory issued Nov. 10 (NOAA) 65% Chance of La Nina in the next 1-3 months Indications La Nina will be short-lived Strong El Nino s usually followed by multi-year La Nina s
Average December Rainfall December Outlook La Nina Impacts.
La Nina Impacts on Winter Temp. and Precip.
Official NOAA 3-Month Outlook Precipitation Temperature
Take Home Messages More beneficial rain the last two weeks, especially in the lower ACF basin. Significant drought improvement in the lower ACF, upper and middle basin slower to respond Drought impacts on wildfires greatly eased, impacts on water resources and agriculture persist La Nina conditions since mid-july, contributing to the drought Likely to persist through January, models have it ending quickly afterwards La Nina favors a warm and dry winter, spring NOAA forecast reflects La Nina influences, favors warm and dry winter season
Streamflows and Groundwater Paul Ankcorn
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Current Streamflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee at Columbus(02341460)
Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)
Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
Current Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Conditions Previous brief Current brief http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Status Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)
Groundwater Status Dougherty County 11K003 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)
Summary-Paul Ankcorn Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin range from low to above normal. 28-day average streamflows into Lake Lanier, as indicated by Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega, are in the much below normal range. 28-day average streamflows for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are in the much below normal to normal range, with a new seasonal record low at West Point. 28-day average streamflows for the Flint River remain in the much below normal to below normal range. Groundwater levels are in the low to normal range across the ACF Basin.
Jeff Dobur
1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown
Summary-SERFC 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Below Normal though some improvement likely. 3 Month Streamflow forecast Below Normal Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
NIDIS Webinar December 20, 2016 State of Alabama Input
Alabama Drought Declaration Nov 14, 2016
Alabama Drought Declaration Dec 13, 2016
December 20, 2016 Cynthia Donald
Summary-US ACE West Point and Walter F. George are almost at winter levels. Buford still remains below average. The ACF system conservation storage has remained in Zone 2 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 2 over the next few weeks. Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
Questions, Comments, Discussion
References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Paul Ankcorn, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Cynthia Donald, US ACE Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring & forecasting http://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Thank you! Next briefing Tuesday, January 10 th, 2017, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extension-outreach/drought/ Please send comments and suggestions to: reuteem@auburn.edu