International Civil Aviation Organization IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18 14/12/09 WORKING PAPER INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG) FIFTH MEETING Lima, Peru, 15 to 19 March 2010 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports WASHINGTON VAAC IAVW MANAGEMENT REPORT JULY 2008-DECEMBER 2009 (Presented by the United States) SUMMARY This paper presents the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre Management Report. 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 This report is provided in response to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) International Airway Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) Conclusion 1/2 where it was agreed that each Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) operating under the ICAO IAVW Program provide a management report to the Secretary of the IAVWOPSG that describes the operations of the VAAC, implementation issues and future developmental work. This report covers the operations of the Washington VAAC (W-VAAC) for the period July 2008 through November 2009. During this period, the W-VAAC produced 1544 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) for 18 volcanoes within its area of responsibility and for 6 volcanoes that produced ash that approached or entered the area of responsibility of the W-VAAC. There were 3 volcanic eruptions during the reporting period that are considered to be of significance. Within the W-VAAC area, the State support to the IAVW also includes the Honolulu and Kansas City Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO) the Cascades, Hawaiian, Long Valley and Yellowstone Volcano Observatories (VO) and 20 Area Control Centers (ACC). This report is provided in response to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) International Airway Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) Conclusion 1/2 where it was agreed that each Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) operating under the ICAO IAVW Program provide a management report to the Secretary of the IAVWOPSG that describes the operations of the VAAC, implementation issues and future (6 pages) IAVWOPSG.5.WP.018.5.en.doc
IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18-2 - developmental work. This report covers the operations of the Washington VAAC (W-VAAC) for the period July 2008 through November 2009. During this period, the W-VAAC produced 1544 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) for 18 volcanoes within its area of responsibility and for 6 volcanoes that produced ash that approached or entered the area of responsibility of the W-VAAC. There were 3 volcanic eruptions during the reporting period that are considered to be of significance. Within the W- VAAC area, the State support to the IAVW also includes the Honolulu and Kansas City Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO) the Cascades, Hawaiian, Long Valley and Yellowstone Volcano Observatories (VO) and 20 Area Control Centres (ACC). 1.2 Program This management report is a summary of how the VAAC interacts and works to fulfil its obligation to the IAWV Program 2. INTRODUCTION 2.1 The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the MET Authority, has accepted by regional air navigation agreement the responsibility for establishing a VAAC within the framework of the ICAO IAVW as defined in Annex 3. At the request of the FAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Environmental and Satellite Data Information Service (NESDIS) agreed to establish a VAAC in Washington DC to become a provider State under the IAVW. The Washington VAAC supports 24 Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO) under its area of responsibility and numerous Area Control Centers (ACC). Also as part of the IAVW for the W-VAAC re the Volcano Observatories as listed in Table MET 3C, Part VI MET of the CAR/SAM and ASIA/PAC FASID. 2.2 This management report presents information on the operations of the W-VAAC as operated by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and is a collaborative effort of both the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution (OSDPD), of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). The W-VAACs area of responsibility stretches from 40degrees West to 130 degrees East and includes the areas of the United States Continental, New York and Oakland Oceanic Flight information Regions (FIR) and southward through Central America, the Caribbean to 10 degrees South in South America. 3. OPERATIONS OF THE WASHINGTON VAAC 3.1 This section describes operations of the Washington VAAC in accordance with the IAWV on the issuance of volcanic ash advisories, identification of significant eruptions that influenced the performance of operations, changes in operational procedures or use of technology to enhance operational capability of the VAAC, and issues related to back-up operations. a) issuance of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) During the period from 1 July 2008 through 31 November 2009, the W-VAAC produced 1,544 VAA (Table 1) with 560 accompanying graphics. Advisories were issued for 18 volcanoes within the area of responsibility for the W-VAAC and for 6 volcanoes that produced ash that approached our entered our area ( Sarychev Peak and Koryaksky Tokyo VAAC, and Kasatochi, Okmok, Cleveland and Redoubt Anchorage VAAC).
- 3 - IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18 The majority of the VAA issued by the W-VAAC were for Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador with 421 VAA issued. Soufriere Hills volcano on the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean was a close second with 406 VAA issued. In general, the eruptions from Tungurahua were short in duration and difficult to detect through remote sensing because of the cloud obscuration. Soufriere Hills volcano produces primarily low altitude (below FL120 ) emissions that hard to detect without visible imagery; b) significant Eruptions in VAAC Area As there is no international standard definition for a significant eruption the W-VAAC uses its own internal procedures or judgment to classify when an eruption is considered significant. Levels of significance are attributed to differences in volcano type, summit elevation, eruption height, eruptive volume and air traffic density. This section will focus on eruptions that the W-VAAC determined that the ash associated with an eruption posed a significant threat to aviation safety. Galeras (Colombia)- There were multiple events with plumes of steam, ash and SO2 however the most significant activity occurred between Feb 14-20 and June 7-8. The February eruption began on the 14th with an explosive eruption and accompanying shock wave that was detected in multiple areas, including Pasto, a city about 10 km E. Cloud cover prevented observations of the ash plume however observers noted ashfall, rain, and an odor of sulfurous gas on the volcano's slopes as well as in Pasto. Ash fell mainly to the E and as far away as 25 km. During 16-17 February, small steam plumes rose to altitudes of 4.6-6.7 km and drifted SE, E, and NE. According to news accounts authorities ordered the evacuation of about 8,000 people on the slopes. The explosion on 20 February represented roughly double the seismic energy seen on the 14th. Shock waves were felt in several local communities. Associated sounds were heard in Popayán (~ 160 km NNE). Analysis indicated the plume rose to FL410 with variable displacements. Ash at FL410 moved East at 30 knots, while ash at FL220 moved West at 15-25 knots and ash below FL200 moved North at 25 knots. The June events became on the 7th with an eruption that was preceded by a M 4 earthquake located about 3 km SSE of the crater. The eruption produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude of FL220 and drifted NW then on June 8th two explosions about 5 minutes apart were heard up to 45 km away. The event was preceded by an M 3.9 earthquake centered 1 km E of the volcano. The plume rose to around FL450 and moved NW with ashfall reported up to 180 km away. Fernandina (Galapagos Islands-Ecuador)- On April 10th 2009, Fernandina (also known as La Cumbre volcano) erupted. According to the Ecuador Institute of Geophysics (IG), the seismic station at Puerto Ayora, on the nearby island of Santa Cruz, recorded no earthquakes associated with this eruption. On the morning of 11 April an eruptive column was seen by both a passing tourist boat and the Galápagos National Park reported both lava flows and ash plumes. Based on analysis of satellite imagery, from 11-14 April, gas and possible ash plumes expanded laterally up to both 300 km W and 270 km N. The eruption also produced a substantial plume of sulfur dioxide (SO2) seen in Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) imagery that extended far W of the islands over the Pacific Ocean;
IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18-4 - Volcano 08 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 VAA Tungurahua 62 41 2 6 66 60 60 18 19 36 50 1 421 Soufriere Hills 18 2 2 3 122 17 1 111 130 406 Huila 4 29 1 56 64 154 Okmok 71 22 93 Reventador 12 7 21 2 5 1 3 15 11 77 Santa Maria 5 6 3 20 3 8 7 2 1 5 60 Fuego 6 7 3 2 6 7 6 4 1 9 5 56 Sarychev 33 33 Peak Galeras 2 7 3 4 7 6 1 5 35 Popocatepetl 2 5 4 2 2 2 8 3 4 32 Redoubt 8 19 27 Sangay 2 3 2 5 3 5 3 3 1 27 Fernandina 25 25 Masaya 5 4 3 4 6 22 Cleveland 12 2 3 17 Kasatochi 15 15 Anatahan 7 7 14 Pagan 10 1 11 San Cristobal 1 7 8 Colima 5 5 Turrialba 3 3 Koryaksky 1 1 Pacaya 1 1 St. Helens 1 1 Total 182 110 23 13 75 224 92 89 47 82 42 104 4 13 20 199 225 0 1544 Table 1- Volcanic Ash Advisories issued by the Washington VAAC by volcano per month between July 2008 and November 2009
- 5 - IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18 c) significant operation or technical changes 1) Due to a meeting with officials from the volcanological authority of Nicaraguathe Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER) an arrangement was made for the VAAC to receive an email of the daily status report on the monitored volcanoes and for email notification of any eruptions that occur. 2) The Washington VAAC continued its collaborating with Dr. Milton Graces, Director of the Infrasound Lab at the U. of Hawaii Kona on comparing notifications of infrasonic events from a test bed infrasonic network (ASHE) in Ecuador. The evaluation is the subject of another working paper for this meeting. 3) The Washington VAA started receiving Volcanic Ash Notification for Aviation (VONA) from the Alaska Volcano Observatory for volcanoes within Alaska; and d) VAAC back-up 1) Test of Back-up operations is preformed between Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) almost quarterly with the W-VAAC, to ensure pertinent AFWA personnel remain proficient. These tests are usually done over an 8-hour period to test that all resources required to provide this support are functioning and any problems identified during these procedures. During the period of this report AFWA took over W-VAAC operations in backup mode 3 times, most recently July 11, 2009. Since July AFWA has not been able to fully test back-up procedures due to software issues for forecasted ash cloud positions. 2) AFWA also provided operational back-up to the Washington VAAC twice (usually brief) when operations were impacted by technical difficulties such as lack of incoming imagery and loss of communications. No VAA however were required to be issued on the VAAC s behalf. 4. IAVW IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES 4.1 Communication of information is a continuing problem. The issues of communication cut across a multitude of issues that involve: incorrect use of WMO headers, lack of observations, language barriers, etc. Both the World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) in Washington and the W-VAAC are not receiving special Air Reports for the most of the CAR/SAM Region. There have also been incidents that WV SIGMETs have either not made it through the communications network or have been delayed by several hours. 4.2 The manager of the Washington VAAC gave several presentations on the IAVW and the role of the VAAC at meetings with meteorological, aviation, and geological authorities in Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras in June 2009. 4.3 The VAAC participated in 3 communications tests. One for the ICAO CAR-SAM region and 2 for the ICAO Asia-North Pacific region.
IAVWOPSG/5-WP/18-6 - 4.4 The USGS and NOAA sponsored a visit by 2 members of VAAC Buenos Aires in June 2009. Among the items discussed were the proper format and content of ash advisories, network and external communication issues, operational procedures for different eruption scenarios, volcanic ash detection from a variety of satellites, and the use of numerical models for ash transport and dispersion forecasting. A visit behind the scenes of the Global Volcanism Network and tour of the volcanism exhibit area was also provided by the staff of the Smithsonian s Natural History Museum. 5. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 5.1 The Washington VAAC hopes to start an evaluation of using the Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) provided by the USGS working group. This will be a combined effort with the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory by performing dual model runs of the HYSPLIT using model inputs from both the ESP and those estimated by the VAAC for some larger eruptions within the VAAC s area of responsibility. Results will be given at the WMO Volcano Workshop in March 2013. 5.2 The VAAC of Washington and Anchorage are hoping to make a shift south in the boundary between their areas of responsibility. The result will decrease the number of near VAA issued by the Washington VAAC for near summit activity within and along the Alaska volcanic chain. Details have yet to be decided. 6. ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG 6.1 The IAVWOPSG is invited to note the information in this paper. END