TEXAS FIREFIGHTER POCKET CARDS UPDATED: FEBRUARY 2014
Table of Contents Guide to Percentiles and Thresholds... 1 Fire Business... 2 Predictive Service Area Map... 4 Firefighter Pocket Cards Central Texas... 5 Coastal Plains... 9 High Plains... 13 Hill Country... 17 Lower Gulf Coast... 21 Northeast Texas... 25 North Texas... 29 Rio Grande Plains... 33 Rolling Plains... 37 Southeast Texas... 41 Southern Plains... 45 Trans Pecos... 49 Upper Gulf Coast... 53 Western Pineywoods... 57 Fire Danger Description... 61 Rate of Spread and Flame Length in Grass Fuel Types... 62 Web Links... 68 Note Pages... 69 i
1 Firefighter s Guide to Percentiles and Thresholds Percentiles and thresholds are used to help us measure the significance of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) outputs as they relate to levels of fire risk, fuel conditions and fire danger. Have you ever asked a firefighter the question, How are your fires burning, and you get a response something like real hot? The definition of real hot will vary depending upon who you ask. One objective of this refresher is to define the NFDRS and fire weather thresholds that relate to problematic fire behavior. Percentiles are based on a scale of 0-100. We use percentiles to sort and rank a collection of data. Thresholds are the actual values of NFDRS indices Energy Release Component (ERC), Burning Index (BI), Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI), weather observations (RH, windspeed) or fuel moistures (1hr,1000hr) that mark the change from one category to another. As an example, the Fort Davis RAWS has calculated the BI every day for 14 years for a total of 5,000 observations. In sorting through these 5,000 BI observations, we find that only 10% of these BI observations have a BI value of 60 or greater. The BI of 60 is the threshold. BI values greater than or equal to the threshold of 60 exceed the 90th percentile. We found that only three percent of the observations occur above the BI value of 74. Crossing the threshold of a 74 BI ranks in the 97th percentile. Percentiles 0-49 50-74 75-89 90-96 97+ Whether we are looking at fuel moistures, ERC, BI or KBDI, we generally make the same associations when rating the percentiles. At the low end of the scale in the green and blue we see normal to below normal conditions. Initial attack should be successful with few complexities. At the upper end of the scale in the orange and red we see unusual or rare conditions, and we would expect to see complex fires where initial attack may often fail. So the difficult category to describe, and thus maybe the most important category for initial attack, is the middle or transition zone in the yellow. Somewhere in the yellow, fires transition from normal to problematic.
Measure of Fire Business Fire managers and firefighters should never observe unexpected fire behavior. We should be able to use the tools available to us and anticipate containment problems that may occur during initial attack. It would be great if there were one magic index or number that would predict fire business. Unfortunately this number does not exist. We should look at combinations of fire weather, fuel moistures and NFDRS indices to gauge fire risk potential. Establishing thresholds and color coding percentiles is an attempt to help firefighters judge the daily fire risk. If all of the thresholds were in the red, it would be easy to recognize that it was going to be a tough day on the fireline. Most days the thresholds will not totally agree. Some will be in the yellow while others may be in blue or orange. Two key thresholds to watch for are the combination of ERC and BI. ERC is a good indicator of fuel conditions. BI is a good indicator of daily weather influences. The combination of these two indices can provide firefighters a sense of what to expect on the fireline. The fire weather thresholds are also key thresholds to monitor. Fire weather thresholds can be used in combination with ERC if a forecast BI is not available. If the ERC is in the yellow percentiles and the fire weather thresholds are met or exceeded, expect an active day. All of the indices and threshold values have applications in forecasting fire risk and should be monitored. Remember to stay current with weather changes and update the morning forecasts if needed. 2
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Predictive Service Area Map http://ticc.tamu.edu/psa 4
Central Texas 5 Central Texas
Central Texas 6
Central Texas 7 Central Texas
Central Texas 8
Central Texas 9 Coastal Plains
Coastal Plains 10
Central Texas 11 Coastal Plains
Coastal Plains 12
Central Texas 13 High Plains
High Plains 14
Central Texas 15 High Plains
High Plains 16
Central Texas 17 Hill Country
Hill Country 18
Central Texas 19 Hill Country
Hill Country 20
Central Texas 21 Lower Gulf Coast
Lower Gulf Coast 22
Central Texas 23 Lower Gulf Coast
Lower Gulf Coast 24
Central Texas 25 North Texas
North Texas 26
Central Texas 27 North Texas
North Texas 28
Central Texas 29 Northeast Texas
Northeast Texas 30
Central Texas 31 Northeast Texas
Northeast Texas 32
Central Texas 33 Rio Grande Plains
Rio Grande Plains 34
Central Texas 35 Rio Grande Plains
Rio Grande Plains 36
Central Texas 37 Rolling Plains
Rolling Plains 38
Central Texas 39 Rolling Plains
Rolling Plains 40
Central Texas 41 Southeast Texas
Southeast Texas 42
Central Texas 43 Southeast Texas
Southeast Texas 44
Central Texas 45 Southern Plains
Southern Plains 46
Central Texas 47 Southern Plains
Southern Plains 48
Central Texas 49 Trans Pecos
Trans Pecos 50
Central Texas 51 Trans Pecos
Trans Pecos 52
Central Texas 53 Upper Gulf Coast
Upper Gulf Coast 54
Central Texas 55 Upper Gulf Coast
Upper Gulf Coast 56
Central Texas 57 Western Pineywoods
Western Pineywoods 58
Central Texas 59 Western Pineywoods
Western Pineywoods 60
Category Low-L (Green) Fire Danger Description Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands although a more intense heat source, such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punk wood. Fires in open cured grasslands may burn freely a few hours after rain, but woods fires spread slowly by creeping or smoldering and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting. Moderate-M (Blue) Fires can start from most causes but, with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low. Fires in open cured grasslands will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Timber fires spread slowly to moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel, especially draped fuel, may burn hot. Short distance spotting may occur, but is not persistant. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is relatively easy. High-H (Yellow) All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended brush and camp fires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short distance spotting is common. High intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations of fine fuels. Fires may become serious and their control difficult unless they are attacked successfully while they are small. Very High-VH (Orange) Fires start easily from all causes. Immediately after ignition they spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light fuels may quickly develop high intensity characteristics, such as long range spotting and fire whirlwinds, when they are burning in heavier fuels. Extreme-E (Red) Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the Very High fire danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible and may be dangerous except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headway in heavy slash or conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme conditions last. 61
Rate Of Spread (ROS) and Flame Lengths (FL) In Grass Fuel Types The following graphs illustrate the ROS and FL in three different grass fuel models. The 1 fuel model is the traditional short grass fire behavior grass fuel model representing light fuel loading. The Gr3 fuel model represents a grass fuel model with moderate fuel loading, and the Gr4 fuel model represents a grass fuel model with heavy fuel loading. These adjective fuel loadings of light, moderate and heavy are subjective and are used here to show the variable fuel conditions in the field. Fine dead fuel moisture is a critical input in determining ROS and FL in grass fuel models. The instructions and reference tables for determining fine dead fuel moisture can be found on page B-22 in Appendix B of your fireline handbook. The graphs below range from 5% to 13% fine dead fuel moisture. To use these graphs, first find the graph representing the fine dead fuel moisture that matches your expected conditions. FL and ROS are plotted by 20-foot windspeed from 5 to 30 mph. Tim Stubbs has put together a good explanation of the concept of adjective fire behavior and how firefighters can use FL and ROS to plan suppression tactics at http://ticc. tamu.edu/documents/predictiveservices/fuels/adjective_ fire_behavior.pdf 62
Rate of Spread with 5% Fine Dead Moisture Surface Rate of Spread (maximum) (ft/min) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) Flame Length with 5% Fine Dead Moisture Flame Length (ft) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) 63
Rate of Spread with 7% Fine Dead Moisture Surface Rate of Spread (maximum) (ft/min) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) Flame Length with 7% Fine Dead Moisture Flame Length (ft) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) 64
Rate of Spread with 9% Fine Dead Moisture Surface Rate of Spread (maximum) (ft/min) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) Flame Length with 9% Fine Dead Moisture Flame Length (ft) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) 65
Rate of Spread with 11% Fine Dead Moisture Surface Rate of Spread (maximum) (ft/min) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) Flame Length with 11% Fine Dead Moisture Flame Length (ft) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) 66
Rate of Spread with 13% Fine Dead Moisture Surface Rate of Spread (maximum) (ft/min) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) Flame Length with 13% Fine Dead Moisture Flame Length (ft) 20-ft Wind Speed (upslope) (mi/h) 67
Fire, Leadership & Safety Web Links ticc.tamu.edu Current weather, fuel and intelligence see predictive services www.wildfirelessons.net Lessons learned, incident toolbox, and 48 & 72 hour reports www.fireleadership.gov Fire leadership issues and courses www.nifc.gov/safety/safety_main.html National Interagency Fire Center site for safety issues gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/ Southern Area Cordination Center site for Region 8 gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/ Southwest Area Coordination Center site for Region 3 www.fs.fed.us/fire US Forest Service - Fire & Aviation site 68
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