Climate Change in Newfoundland & Labrador Impacts and Adaptation Newleef Conference 08 October 2015
Met-Ocean Services The Team 55 personnel; 24/7 operational weather forecast desk; Equipment technician group; Ice management; Metocean data analysts; Modeling and consulting Terrestrial Weather Services Winter Road Weather Information Systems; Construction support services; Equipment installation and data monitoring; Severe Weather Forecasting (Insurance and Energy); Wind energy and resource assessment; Modeling high resolution atmospheric and sub-surface; Flood forecasting Marine Services Marine Forecasting Offshore, ports and harbours; Data collection and analysis (waves, currents, tides etc.); Ice Management Services; Modeling-- hydrodynamic, wave, tsunami, storm surge Information Management Cloud based database management; Customized web portals; Mobile apps, websites, and data collection tools; Forecast production systems Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Water resources, infrastructure, vulnerability risk assessments, energy projects, severe and extreme events projections 2 ISO 9001:2008 certified
Presentation Outline Weather and Climate Observed Changes Climate Change Science and Models Climate Change Projections and Impacts Adaptation and Resilience 3
Weather and Climate 4
Weather 5
Climate IPCC WG1 AR5 Figure SPM.3 http://www.windatlas.ca/ 50m mean 6
Climate Change Long term shifts in weather Average conditions Timing and magnitudes Variability and extremes Temperature, precipitation, winds, etc We can see it now! IPCC SYR AR5 Figure SPM.7 7
Observations 8
Global Observations The Air 10 warmest years in 134-year record have happened since 1998 0.68 C increase over preindustrial temperatures Record high temperature events increasing Increasing numbers of intense rainfall events 9
Global Observations The Sea Sea level +17 cm (6.7 ) in past century Ocean stores ~90% of additional heat in climate system Top 700 m +0.17 C since 1969 Acidity +30% since beginning of industrial revolution 10
Global Observations The Ice Greenland -285 B tonnes/year Antarctica -135 B tonnes/year Glaciers retreating globally -400 B tonnes/year Arctic sea ice declined rapidly since 1979 Spring snow cover extent has decreased Snow melting earlier Less of it to melt 11
Goose Bay Temperature Trends 12
Gander Precipitation Trends 13
Science and Models 14
1859 A Big Year! Image courtesy of EDF Energy 15
Forcing and Feedback NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Observatory Climate forcing The sun Radiation balance Feedbacks Countless and complicated E.g. T air Sea Ice T ocean T air 16
Climate Models Based on physical laws Approximations of the real world 3D grid of ocean and atmosphere Supercomputers National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 17
Projections and Impacts 18
Climate Projections Globally Robust Results CBC News IPCC AR5 Fig 12.5 NASA More uncertainty: Specific regional and local impacts 19
Climate Projections North America CURRENT PATH +4.5-6.0 C Add segment and caption if required. 20 IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-3
Climate Projections North America +10-30% 21 IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-3
Climate Projections NL in General Warmer temperatures year round Greater increases in winter and north/west/inland Increased agricultural potential Less frost events on shoulder seasons More growing degree days Increased precipitation Average annual accumulation More intense extremes Sea level rise Significant for the island, not so much for the Big Land 22
Climate Projections Extremes in NL Summer Extreme Hot RCP8.5 2046 2065 Extreme Precipitation RCP4.5 2046 2065 23 IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-4
Climate Projections Extremes in NL Summer Extreme Dry RCP8.5 2080 2099 March Extreme Low Snow RCP8.5 2070 2099 24 IPCC AR5 WG2 (Regional) Fig 26-4
Adaptation and Resilience 25
Adaptation and Resilience Successful adaptation does not mean that negative impacts will not occur, only that they will be less severe than would be experienced had no adaptation occurred. - Natural Resources Canada Resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a society to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience. - Adapted from 100 Resilient Cities Be Prepared! 26
Adaptation and Resilience Status quo no longer sufficient! Can no longer base designs, regulations, governance, etc on the historical record Reduce negative impacts Higher capacity culverts Reinforce/relocate coastal infrastructure Take advantage of the positive impacts Increase agriculture Plan for lower snow clearing and heating needs 27
Identify Key Systems and Infrastructure Healthcare Commercial buildings Education Homes and cabins Offshore industry Food security Water resources Fishery Energy security Tourism Recreation Agriculture Ocean transportation Land transportation 28
Vulnerability Risk Assessments Direct where adaptation efforts should focus What are the sensitive sectors? What is the current adaptive capacity? Risk = Consequences + Likelihood Free Adaptation Tools and Resources NL s 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Engineers Canada s PIEVC Protocol Federation of Canadian Municipalities Help develop an Action Plan 29
Action Plan Components Land use planning Infrastructure upgrades Community services & engagement Licensing and regulation Workforce development Adapted from Federation of Canadian Municipalities Changing Climate, Changing Communities: Guide for Municipal Climate Adaptation 30
Roads Snow clearing and ice control Bridge and culvert washouts Potholes freeze/thaw Amec Foster Wheeler Road Weather Information System Thorburn Rd Freeze- Thaw Cycles (2011-2015) Air (2 m) 225 Surface 331 http://www.env.gov.nl.ca/env/climate_change/vultool/pdf/chapter2.pdf Sub (6 cm) 266 31
Healthcare Increased heat stress Pests and invasive species Infrastructure vulnerabilities 32
Food Security Increased agricultural potential Food import challenges Long supply chains Droughts and conflicts Ports and ocean transportation Storm surge > sea level rise 33
Offshore Industry More severe storms Altered wind regimes Sea ice risks Iceberg risks 34
Challenges Awareness of climate change impacts Accepting the need to adapt Awareness of available tools and resources Making long term a priority Near term costs 35
Opportunities Awareness is increasing Replacing aging infrastructure Take advantage of positive impacts More than most places! Develop diverse industry 36
Thank you! Jonas Roberts jonas.roberts@amecfw.com (709) 722-7023 37