WEATHER & CLIMATE: VOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR?

WEATHER & CLIMATE: VOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR? JOSH DARR LEAD METEOROLOGIST, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT MAY 18, 2017 NLC-RISC TRUSTEES CONFERENCE, INDIANAPOLIS, IN

AGENDA VOLATILITY OR CHANGE IN THE AIR? What are the latest scientific views on global climate change? How does the changing climate impact the frequency and severity of North American catastrophe events? Translating catastrophe risk to exercising resiliency NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 2

WEATHER VOLATILITY & CLIMATE CHANGE WHY IS IMPORTANT TO STAY IN TUNE WITH LATEST SCIENCE? 2017 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report Increasing acknowledgement by many policy groups that we are witnessing an increase in cat events and extreme weather globally NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 3

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES & JET STREAM IMPACTS

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SINCE 1880 THE GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE SINCE 1998 IS OVER? Source: NASA GISS Baseline temperatures 1951-1980 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 5

EL NIÑO 2016 RECORD STRONG INTENSITY NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 6

COMPARING BACK TO BACK MEGA EL NIÑOS WHERE IS THE WARMING TREND MOST SIGNIFICANT? El Niño events tend to propel natural warming of the globe Most of the mega 2016 El Niño warming was focused in the Arctic Winter temperatures were 8-15 C (15-28 F) warmer than average NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 7

THE ACCELERATION OF ARCTIC ICE LOSS LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE TO WEATHER VOLATILITY NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 8

THE JET STREAM MEASURING THE STRENGTH OF TEMPERATURE CONTRAST NASA NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 9

TALE OF TWO WINTERS COMPARING FEBRUARY 2015 TO 2017 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 10

TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AT LOCAL LEVEL ALBANY, NY 2015 TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO HISTORY Record Coldest Start to Year Record Warmest End to Year Weather & Climate: Volatility or Change in the Air? 2016 NYMIR Summer Retreat: West Point, NY July 28, 2016 11

CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE UNDERSTANDING STACKING WEATHER PERILS SIDE BY SIDE Is there a way to link a changing climate to any individual catastrophe peril event? Science evolving rapidly in this field Highest confidence in link to precipitation events Least confidence in thunderstorm and winter events 2014 National Academy of Sciences Climate Change: Evidence & Causes NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 12

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS THE MOISTURE FREEWAYS As the atmosphere warms, the ability to transport higher amounts of moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes increases NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 14

WESTERN US DROUGHT AND FLOOD ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS Past performance is not indicative of future performance! 2016 Winter El Niño disappointing for Western US drought 2017 neutral conditions eradicated drought in roughly 6 weeks NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 15

TURNING OF THE TIDE IN CALIFORNIA 500 YEAR MEGA DROUGHT TO RECORD HIGH WATER YEAR NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 16

EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS MORE FREQUENT? Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events in the Contiguous 48 States (NOAA) Change in amount of precip falling in heaviest 1% of all daily events (NCDC) 2016 was the year of the flood in the U.S. In total, 19 separate floods swamped the nation last year, the most in one single year since records began in 1880. NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 17

POLAR VORTEX NATURAL DRIVER OF HEMISPHERE WEATHER PATTERNS earth.nullschool.net NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 19

WINTER TEMPERATURES SINCE 1950 BASED ON POPULATION AND ENERGY DEMAND December to February US Temperatures Trended for Population Demand Cold Winters Increase in volatility since 1980, much higher than seen in the 50s through 70s Warm Winters NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 20

MORE FREQUENT SNOW STORMS SNOWPOCALYPSE, SNOWZILLA, SUPERSTORM BLIZZARD Judah Cohen AER / Jason Furtado University of Oklahoma NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 21

WHERE ARE THE MAJOR HURRICANES? 2005 THE LAST CATEGORY 3+ US LANDFALL Credit: Hall & Hereid 2015 8 years 11 years NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 1-in-325 39% Annual Probability of 11 probability of Cat 3 year drought of US landfall major landfalls 23

RECENT UPTICK IN NUMBER OF LARGE STORMS KATRINA VS. SANDY Hurricane Katrina 2005 Hurricane Sandy 2012 Sandy windfield of tropical storm force winds was largest in recorded history and over three times the size of Hurricane Katrina NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 IN the Air? Weather & Climate: Volatility orindianapolis, Change in 2016 NYMIR Summer Retreat: West Point, NY July 28, 2016 24

SEA LEVEL RISE AND SINKING LAND INCREASING PROSPECTS OF RECORD STORM SURGE Dr. Bob Henson, University Center for Atmospheric Research NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 25

SEA LEVEL RISE WHAT PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MOST SUSCEPTIBLE? Gulf Coast: oil and gas production near and offshore Mid-Atlantic: I-95 Corridor ground water usage of aquifer under Chesapeake and Delaware Bays NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 26

WARMING TREND IN OCTOBER OCEANS CYCLICAL AMO OR NON-CYCLICAL WARMING? October 2016 SST Anomalies courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory 23.5 23 22.5 22 21.5 21 20.5 20 Sea Surface Temperature ( C) 30-42N Sea Surface Temperature ( C) 15-30N 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.4 SST source data: NOAA/ESRL NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 27

IS THERE A SHIFT IN LATE STORM FREQUENCY? OCTOBER-NOVEMBER STORM COUNT IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE 1950 14 12 Warm Atlantic Cold Atlantic Warm Atlantic 2.7 storms 3.0 storms 4.5 storms 10 8 6 4 2 0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: NOAA/HURDAT NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 28

ATLANTIC MULTI DECADAL OSCILLATION IS THE ATLANTIC SHIFTING INTO A COLD PHASE? Warm vs. Cold Atlantic 20-35 year cycles of warm and cold Traditionally, warmer ocean produces more hurricanes Latest Research Eastern Seaboard buffered against warm Atlantic? Extension of season due to warm autumn waters 1.50 1.00 0.50 - (0.50) (1.00) 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly: Spring 2017 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 29

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TORNADOES INCREASING OR DECREASING TREND SINCE 1950S? Many factors for the increasing trend in total tornado reports However, after detrending tornado frequency data: Significant increase in year to year variability starting early 2000s Recent 5-year period well below the detrended average of ~1,370 tornadoes NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 31

FAST START TO 17 SEVERE WEATHER SEASON HIGHEST LEVEL OF STORM ACTIVITY ON RECORD FOR Q1 17 Storm Activity Basis Normal Tornado +50% +60% +105% Winds The first quarter of 2017 recorded all-time high levels of tornado activity, which has maintained record high levels of storm activity during the month of April All three convective storm perils (tornado, hail, wind) are seeing activity 50% to 105% above average through late April 2017 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 32 Hail

EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ABILITY TO MODULATE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE GLOBE NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 33

SPRING SEVERE WEATHER FLUCTUATIONS EL NIÑO VERSUS LA NIÑA La Niña: Mississippi / Ohio River valley El Niño: Texas, Plains, Upper Midwest, Florida and Southeast NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 34

TORNADO CLUSTERING ARE OUTBREAKS MORE FREQUENT? Tippett & Cohen, 2016 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 35

WHAT ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER TRENDS? CHANGING CHARACTER OF OUTBREAKS No meaningful change in # of severe weather outbreaks per year 1960s & 1970s Outbreak 2010s Outbreak: blue tracks + yellow tracks However, the number of tornadoes that occurs in an outbreak has increased by 50%, and the most severe outbreak days of 30 or more tornadoes has tripled since the 1960s/ 70s Tippett & Cohen, 2016 Elsner & Jagger, 2015 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 36

TREND IN CONVECTIVE STORM EVENTS HAIL 2006-14 WITH OBJECTIVE TECHNOLOGY Hail reports show even more historical bias of trend and data issues than tornado Radar detected hail swath data has enabled a more systematic way to detect hail coverage, frequency and severity JLT Re licenses hail swath data for claims alerting and research NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 37

SUMMARY OF OBSERVED/FUTURE TRENDS INCREASED WEATHER VOLATILITY Will the future resemble the recent past? Entering cold Atlantic phase but different than last cold phase? Increasingly frequent and severe northern US More frequent large outbreaks Winter temperatures more volatile and bigger snowstorms NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN Expanding seasonally and geographically Population demographics 38

EXERCISING RESILIENCY STRETCH, FLEX & BOUNCE(BACK) WHEN ADVERSITY STRIKES 1 LOSS MITIGATION AND RESILIENCY DEFINED 2 THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF RESILIENCY 3 EFFORTS & CHALLENGES NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 40

SUPPORTING RESILIENCY LOSS MITIGATION & RESILIENCY DEFINED LOSS MITIGATION RESILIENCY ACCEPT TRANSFER MITIGATE AVOID YES RISK NO the act of making a condition or consequence less severe. the power or ability to return to the original form; ability to recover readily from adversity or the like, buoyancy. NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 41

SUPPORTING RESILIENCY FOUR MAIN FOCUS AREAS NEIGHBORHOODS COASTAL RESILIENCY / FLOOD BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 42

SUPPORTING RESILIENCY RESILIENT AMERICA CITIES Source: National Academies of Sciences ~ Engineering ~ Medicine; Office of Special Projects Program on Risk, Resilience, and Extreme Events NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 43

SUPPORTING RESILIENCY OTHER CONSIDERATIONS Applying resiliency efforts in underwriting & engineering Research & Development, Education, Implementation Cost vs. Investment Protection, Elevate, Move out of harm s way $1 of investment save $4 of loss Why aren t we seeing a greater impact? The Challenges NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 44

WEATHER & CLIMATE PATTERNS INCREASING VOLATILITY OR FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES? Is the weather getting worse? No! However, it s getting more volatile Why is weather getting more volatile? Warmer Arctic linked to stickier weather patterns, causing longer regimes with embedded extremes Can we say anything about the future? Arctic ice loss expected to continue, no sign of going back to historical normals What can be done to manage the volatility? Resiliency, insurance protection, real time monitoring & catastrophe modeling % Lower 48 Under Extreme Conditions 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 US Climate Extremes Index 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 CEI 5 per. Mov. Avg. (CEI) NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 45

CONTACT Josh Darr, Senior Vice President & Lead Meteorologist Chicago, IL E: josh.darr@jltre.com T: +1 312 637 6108 NLC-RISC Trustee Conference: May 2017 Indianapolis, IN 46