Satellite and Radar 5:55 am Infrared Satellite with Surface Wind Arrows 6:15 am Ruskin Doppler Radar Large southerly wind field Developing showers rotating onshore
NHC Forecast Hurricane Warning Big Bend Area Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Watch Levy to Pasco Counties
Changes Since Last Briefing TS Hermine is now forecast to become a Hurricane as it approaches Apalachicola tonight Threat of tornadoes has increased in central and north Florida Alafia River again forecast to go into moderate flood Coastal Flood Advisory issued from Pinellas to Sarasota including Tampa Bay with tides 2-3 feet above normal. The Tropical Storm Warning covers this for Pasco County. Above normal tides of 3+ feet Levy/Citrus/Hernando Counties to last more than 16 hours impacting multiple high tide cycles Highest above normal tides will be from around 10 pm Thu to 10 am Friday Cedar Key High Tides 2:28 pm Thu, 3:07 am Fri, and 3:06 pm Fri 6-8 feet MSL (surge of 4-6 feet) further east, Waccassa River floods to U.S. 19 Yankeetown High Tides 2:35 pm Thu, 3:14 am Fri, and 3:13 pm Fri 6-8 feet MSL (surge of 4-6 feet) floods parts of the community Crystal River High Tides 5:08 pm Thu, 5:37 am Fri, and 5:49 pm Fri 5-7 feet MSL (surge of 3-5 feet) with 1-2 feet of water on parts of U.S. 19 Bay Port High Tides 2:45 pm Thu, 3:19 am Fri, 3:21 pm Fri 5-7 feet MSL (surge of 3-5 feet) floods parts of Hernando Beach Community
Above Normal Tide Impacts High Impact (5-6 ft Depth) in Levy County Several sections of near-shore roads washed out Low-lying escape routes severely flooded. Structural damage to shoreline buildings, with a few washing into the sea. Moderate to major damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings and lifted onshore and stranded. Moderate Impact (3-5 ft Depth) in Citrus County 1-2 feet of water on parts of U.S. 19 in Crystal River A few sections of near-shore escape roads weakened or washed out. Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings (especially unprotected areas).
Impacts and Timing Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch continues Pasco to Levy Counties and adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters. Flood Watch continues for Sumter and from Levy to Sarasota Storm Surge Warning continues Levy to Hernando Counties, Coastal Flood Advisory Pinellas to Sarasota Counties including Tampa Bay Rip currents and beach erosion Pinellas to Sarasota County into Friday with 4 to 6 foot breaking waves Rain through Friday morning north of line from Sarasota to Orlando 6-10 isolated 20 north of Interstate 4 Flood Watch continues for Sumter and from Levy to Sarasota Counties Many rivers forecast to go into flood
Wind Timing & Impact Tropical Storm Force Wind Impact Thursday Tonight Levy/Citrus counties: 40 mph gust 55 mph in heavier rain bands, higher in Cedar Key. Hernando south into the Tampa Bay area: 25 mph gust 45 mph in rain bands, higher along the coast Hernando and Pasco counties remain in Tropical Storm Warning in case Hermine moves east of perfect forecast Damage to unanchored mobile homes, porches, carports Large broken tree limbs and shallow rooted trees blown down with a few roads impassable and scattered power outages
Coastal and Bay Waters Seas increase this afternoon and persist into Friday afternoon 4-6 foot breaking waves from Pinellas through Sarasota counties High rip current risk Forecast Wave Height 11 pm Thursday
Heavy Rainfall Forecast 8 am Thursday to 8 am Saturday, most of it now through Friday Morning Excessive Rainfall Outlook until 8 am Friday 6-10 Isolated 20 Possible! 4-6 2-4 <2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook 8 am Fri to 8 am Sat
Rain Last 24 Hours Highest Rain Reports 12.83 Redington Shores in Pinellas County 7.22 Sarasota/Bradenton Airport 4.75 Sun City Center in Hillsborough County 5.32 Longboat Key in Sarasota County 3.48 Lakeland Airport 3.22 Holiday in Pasco County 3.17 Archbold in Highlands County This does not include volunteer observers (CoCoRahs). Expect to see higher values when this data is available.
Rain & Flood Impacts Sarasota to Levy Counties and Sumter Today and Tonight Flood waters will be capable of causing small streams, creeks, and ditches to become swollen and overflow in a few places. Quick ponding of water at underpasses. Retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow in a few places. Flood waters may prompt a few evacuations and road closures.
Forecast River Flooding http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tbw for impacts and timing Moderate Flood Forecast Alafia River Little Manatee River Myakka River Minor Flood Suwanee River Anclote River Cypress Creek Manatee River @Myakka Head Manatee River @Rye Bridge Peace River @ Zolfo Peace River @ Arcadia Horse Creek
Tornado Threat Significant Threat of Tornadoes Threat of Tornadoes Significant Threat of Tornadoes Threat of Tornadoes Today and Tonight Friday and Friday Night
Summary Above Normal Tide Threat High in Levy County and Moderate in Citrus and Hernando 2-3 ft from Pasco to Manatee including Tampa Bay Wind Threat Tropical storm force winds strongest in Levy and Citrus Tropical storm force wind gusts in rain bands from Hernando County into Tampa Bay Flood Threat Significant street flooding, especially roads near the Gulf and Tampa Bay, possible into Friday morning Levy to Sarasota Counties. Sumter County also in Flood Watch. Tornado Threat Through tonight along and north of Interstate 4