BMKG Research on Air sea interaction modeling for YMC Prof. Edvin Aldrian Director for Research and Development - BMKG First Scientific and Planning Workshop on Year of Maritime Continent, Singapore 27-3 January 25
BMKG Climatology of regional rainfall Mainly monsoonal Three distinct rainfall climate regions Three climate regions update previous work by Wyrtki, 956 monsoonal Semi-monsoonal Anti-monsoonal
BMKG Onset Dates of Asian Summer Monsoon 3
Dry Season onset (TRMM data 998) BMKG Area with rainfall > 5mm/ days (Non Monsoon) Areas with rainfall < 5mm/ days (Non Monsoon) Colour indicates days
Rainy Season onset (TRMM data 998) BMKG Area with rainfall > 5mm/ days (Non Monsoon) Areas with rainfall < 5mm/ days (Non Monsoon) Colour indicates days
Improvement by higher resolution BMKG with regional model
Java BMKG Improvement by coupling with ocean model uncoupled Java Aldrian et al, 25, Clim Dyn. coupled Southern South China Sea Southern South China Sea Molucca Sea Molucca Sea
Rainfall Predictability by regional model BMKG RMS Error against control run Ensemble runs with REMO-ERA and REMO-ECHAM: 6 members with 2 hr diff. in initial condition
BMKG Studying Land sea interaction with Satellite Observation ----- results of diurnal process between land and sea Study area (55 E AND 5-9 S)
Studying Land sea interaction with Satellite Observation ----- results of diurnal process between land and sea BMKG land ocean There is a reverse diurnal mechanism of cloud development and precipitation processes over land and surrounding ocean 6 4 Land Ocean 2 TBB 7-8 8-9 9 2 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 9 2 22 223 23-2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 -4-6 -8
Studying Sea Air interaction ( cloud model) Jan January with a coupled Feb ocean Februaryatmosphere Mar modeling March ----- results Apr April BMKG.5.5.5.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5.5.5 y =.3884x +.98 R 2 =.49 y =.657x +.33 R 2 =.766.5.5 y =.79x -.29 R 2 =.7478 y =.295x -.227 R 2 =.849.5.5 y =.825x -.3 R 2 =.5373 y =.242x -.954 R 2 =.7687.5.5 y =.3982x -.2683 R 2 =.477 y = 2.55x -.3245 R 2 =.62 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 SST SST SST SST May May Jun June Jul July Aug August.5.5.5.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5.5.5 y =.43x +.93 R 2 =.48 y =.9282x -.353 R 2 =.889.5.5 y =.759x -.553 R 2 =.675 y =.8249x -.8 R 2 =.542.5.5 y =.5x +.92 R 2 =.42 y =.636x +.4 R 2 =.396.5.5 y =.729x +.85 R 2 =.33 y =.5779x +.499 R 2 =.3683 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 -.5.5.5 2 SST SST SST SST Sep September Oct October Nov Novem ber Dec Decem ber.5.5.5.5 -.5 Convective -.5 Stratiform -.5 -.5.5.5 y =.2262x +.336 R 2 =.2689 y =.4247x +.245 R 2 =.5292 -.5.5.5 2.5.5 y =.3562x +.9 R 2 =.3695 y =.5887x -.57 R 2 =.4279 -.5.5.5 2.5.5 y =.476x +.66 R 2 =.536 y =.5884x +.54 R 2 =.794 -.5.5.5 2.5.5 y =.22x -.37 R 2 =.7546 y =.333x -.73 R 2 =.8564 -.5.5.5 2 SST SST SST SST
BMKG Studying Sea Air interaction with a coupled ocean atmosphere modeling ----- results April is the most sensitive month for change in SST against change in rainfall, while August, September and October are the less influential months for SST changes to rainfall. Changes of SST bring larger impacts on rainfall than on the statiform rainfall.
BMKG Studying Sea Air interaction with a coupled ocean atmosphere modeling ----- results Pentad (five-days) lag and lead correlation
BMKG Studying Sea Air interaction with a coupled ocean atmosphere modeling ----- results No Correlation variables Correlation type lag lead Period remarks Rainfall vs SST SON DJF 2 Laten Heat vs SST MAM JJA SON DJF 3 Shortwave surface radiation vs SST MAM SON
BMKG Studying Sea Air interaction with a coupled ocean atmosphere modeling ----- conclusions When using the abovementioned relationship, mechanism of sea air interaction is define. The sea air interaction is defined for each season or three monthly analyses. Significant relationship of sea air interactions are given by SST to latent heat release near surface. The results indicate clearly that in most cases the ocean affecting the atmosphere or the sea air interaction is significant than the air sea interaction. For this type of analysis only the coupled on simulation is used, while possible extension of the work include study on the differences between similar analyses of coupled on and coupled off simulations.
BMKG Some thoughts for YMC The Maritime Continent is mostly covered by ocean thus air sea interaction should be one of major focus. There are aspect of diurnal to seasonality time scale in air sea interaction. Improvement of sea air flux processes are needed Proposed activity should covered Java Sea, Karimata Strait (between Sumatera and Borneo), Banda Sea and Flores sea.
BMKG Instrumentations from BMKG In addition to existing observation network Sea glider X band doppler weather radar WindCube wind profiler, Mini Sodar Lidar Portable air quality (PM2.5, ) Sun photometer, sun tracker, uv photometer Net Radiometer dan Sensible Heat Flux Quadrotor UAV
BMKG THANK YOU 8