Introduction to Weather Analytics & User Guide to ProWxAlerts August 2017 Prepared for:
Weather Analytics is a leading data and analytics company based in Washington, DC and Dover, New Hampshire that offers historical and forecast weather and climate information for anywhere in the world. We answer global weather intelligence questions and provide solutions to businesses and organizations impacted by the state of the atmosphere. Our data combines over three decades of statistically-stable climate history as well as current and forecast weather content coupled with proprietary analytics methodologies. 2
Innovation through Data Forecast Data Sources Weather Analytics uses a blend of the following three data sources, available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to produce the most accurate forecast data commercially available: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlooks Global Forecast System (GFS) model data Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingestion System (MADIS) observational data, which includes 40,000 ground stations from private and government surface station networks By combining the best available forecast data with input from on-site or nearby ground sensors, Weather Analytics is able to: Focus the data to a very small footprint 9x9 miles in the US, 18x18 miles globally, including the poles and oceans. Extrapolate the model data from 3 hour forecasts to hour-by-hour forecasts, which strengthens forecast accuracy and minimizes the latency (age) of the forecast Hail risk forecasts are provided at 3x3 mile resolution in the US 3 3
Innovation through Data Conditions for Hail Forecasts Weather Analytics now utilizes NOAA s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlooks for hail alerting. The SPC Convective Outlooks, probabilistically and categorically, identify areas where the environment is favorable for hail. One, two, and three day outlooks more accurately detect hail zones, with fewer false alarms, and have the capability to distinguish between large hail (2 +) and small hail zones. Conditions for Frost Forecasts Weather Analytics - using high-resolution lower-atmospheric temperature and moisture data from NOAA - identifies regions that are likely to experience frost. 4 4
ProWxAlerts Coverage Geographic Coverage: 15x15 kilometer grid squares Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii Weather Variables: Conditions for hail Conditions for frost Wind (both gusts and sustained) Temperature (both heat and cold) Rain Freezing Rain Snowfall 5 5
Alerts Login Page ProWxAlerts can be found at: http://www.proagweatherwatch.com/prowxalerts.htm Users will login with their username (email) & password First name, last name, email, password will be parameters needed for account registration The Forgot Password link is available for users who need to reset their password credential **Users of Internet Explorer will need version 10.0 or greater for ProWxAlerts to properly run** 6 6
User Account & Contact Control Once logged in, user account control options will be available at the bar on the left Contacts The Contacts tab will allow the Alerts user to edit the Names, Emails, and the Agency associated with each contact in their address book For users who are agents themselves, the Agency Name option is automatically preconfigured for all contacts. For others, the user may select the appropriate agency for the contact Settings The Settings tool will give the Alerts user the ability to change their password 7 7
Alert Configuration: Location Selection Alerts The top sidebar selection, Alerts, allows users to configure new alerts and edit existing alerts Locations can be added by address, coordinate pair, map click, or now PLSS Alert locations may be named. The optional location name should be put in closed quotation marks before the location address, coordinate pair, or PLSS coordinate If no location name is provided, the application will use the address, coordinate pair, or PLSS coordinate to name the location in the alert email Lookup specifically by PLSS is completed by clicking PLSS on the header bar, then selecting through the following options: State, County, Township, Range, Section 8 8
Alert Configuration: Location Selection Once locations are searched, an orange hexagon will be highlighted containing a color-coded pin at each location A green pin corresponds to a coordinate pair search, map click, or PLSS If an address is used to search, the colors correspond to the following geolocation results: Blue: 75% confidence or greater in address result Orange: 50-74% confidence in address result Red: Below 50% confidence in address result Click New Alert to advance in the alert configuration process 9 9
Alert Configuration: Perils Once the location(s) has been found and you have clicked New Alert, the New Alert box appears The colored boxes show the variable options to the user. Users can select from cold, heat, sustained winds, wind gusts, rain, snow, freezing rain, conditions for hail, or conditions for frost Select the peril you are interested in and click Next to advance 10 10
Alert Configuration: Thresholds The top line allows the user to name their alert, defaulting to New (Peril) Alert, in this case New Rain Alert Select the severity, size, or magnitude of the peril you want to be alerted about Recommended thresholds are given for various insured-types. Four crops are available: corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton The crop buttons will autofill the suggested threshold for each corresponding crop After variable configuration, the next page allows the user to select the forecast window and notification frequency 11 11
Alert Configuration: Length & Frequency On this page, the user may select how far in advance, and how often, to receive alert emails The selected Forecast Window determines how many days in advance you want to be notified of impending weather conditions. Alerts may go out as far as 7 days, or as short as the next 18 hours o Hail forecasts are available as far out as 3 days The selected Notification Frequency determines how frequently you want to be notified within the Forecast Window. Alerts may be sent out as frequently as 6 hours, or infrequently as daily o Locations with hail forecasted will receive a daily alert at 7 a.m. Eastern Time. Updates will be sent throughout the day if the location is added or removed from the hail forecasted zone Again, an email is only sent if the configured threshold is triggered by a forecast 12 12
Alert Configuration: Contacts The next page allows the user to configure the contacts for their new alert. All previously-saved contacts will appear under My Saved Contacts Users can double-click a saved contact to add that contact to the alert, or select the name(s) and click Add Selected. This contact will now fall under Recipients Alternatively, users can double-click a contact under Recipients to take it off the particular alert, or select and click Remove Selected. That contact will then fall back under My Saved Contacts Below these boxes is a link to the address book under Open Contracts, allowing the user to add or edit Saved Contacts. The address book is also available on the left sidebar of ProWxAlerts under Contacts Once contacts are added, Next will take the user to the alert email content 13 13
Alert Configuration: Email Message This email configuration page customizes the message that will be sent Users may configure the subject line of the email. If none is chosen, the default is ProAg Weather Watch Alert The email begins with the ProAg banner, followed by a introductory message, part of which may be customized for an individual alert. The ${AgencyName} tag is auto-filled with the Agency Name configured to the user in the actual email sent out Below the forecast listing, the user may also add a customized closing message as well At the very bottom, the email will give the option for the contact to unsubscribe from the alert Once your email is configured, the Create Alert button at the bottom will successfully create your new alert 14 14
Alert Editing All configured alerts under a user s account will be shown and available for editing and viewing. Toggling from Create to Edit at the bottom of the application allows configured alerts to either be edited or deleted 15 15
Alert Emails: Timing Alert emails are sent at a maximum frequency of 6 hours, corresponding to the frequency of forecast updates Weather forecasts run on Universal Time (UTC) with alerts sent out at UTC times represented in the table below Time Zone 00 UTC Alert 06 UTC Alert 12 UTC Alert 18 UTC Alert Eastern Daylight Central Daylight Mountain Daylight Pacific Daylight 8:00 PM 2:00 AM 8:00 AM 2:00 PM 7:00 PM 1:00 AM 7:00 AM 1:00 PM 6:00 PM 12:00 AM 6:00 AM 12:00 PM 5:00 PM 11:00 PM 5:00 AM 11:00 AM The table maps each alert sendoff time to the four time zones of the continental United States Note: The details above apply to all perils except Hail. See Slide 12 for more details concerning hail alert timing and frequency Eastern Standard Central Standard Mountain Standard Pacific Standard 7:00 PM 1:00 AM 7:00 AM 1:00 PM 6:00 PM 12:00 AM 6:00 AM 12:00 PM 5:00 PM 11:00 PM 5:00 AM 11:00 AM 4:00 PM 10:00 PM 4:00 AM 10:00 AM 16 16
Alert Management & Tracking Alert Activity The Management tab allows users to view alert activity for all their configured alerts By setting a Start and End Date at the top, users may view triggered alerts over their requested timeframe Management lists the Alert Name, Peril, number of Triggers, and time of First Trigger for any alerts triggered within the timeframe A graph of alert emails sent per Peril is also provided at the bottom This table of alert activity can be downloaded as a spreadsheet and filtered using the Search bar 17 17
Alert Configuration: Location Selection Alert Activity A user may click on any alert in the Management table to view further details about the alert At the top, the alert Trigger, Forecast Window, Frequency, Locations and current alert Contacts are provided Farther below, a trigger-by-trigger listing of every trigger within the selected time frame is provided The time of the trigger is given, along with the alert locations that triggered for each individual instance This table is available for download into a spreadsheet and searchable via the Search bar 18 18
ProWxAlerts Hurricane Hurricane Forecasts ProWxAlerts now offers hurricane track and wind forecast visualizations, using new proprietary tropical cyclone forecasting techniques from Weather Analytics By clicking on the Hurricane tab on the left, users can view active tropical cyclone activity around the globe Using the date selection bar at the top, users may sort through recent forecasts, as well as historical dates that Weather Analytics has archived for significant storms (in this case, October 4, 2016 is archived for Hurricane Matthew) Once a date and time are selected, all the applicable storm forecasts for that instance in time are displayed. In this case, there were three active storms with available forecasts on October 4, 2016 Along with the storm names, the latest observed central pressure and maximum sustained wind are shown. From here, users may click on a particular storm to take a deeper dive into a forecast 19 19
ProWxAlerts Hurricane: Tracks Forecast Tracks Once a storm is selected, the user is immediately taken to Track Forecasts, with the option of viewing Bias Corrected Tracks or Raw Tracks Raw Tracks will visualize forecasts from various hurricane forecast models Bias Corrected Tracks will visualize these same sources, but with a proprietary algorithmic adjustment which takes into account forecast model weaknesses and to-date performance Users may scroll through forecast times, which will update the track on the map Forecasts are color coded using storm strength. The to-date path of the storm is given in black 20 20
ProWxAlerts Hurricane: Tracks Forecast Tracks The user may select and filter individual model forecasts to visualize. The Weather Analytics forecast is the WA 888 selection The visualization thus filters down from all forecast model members (seen on the previous slide), to the individual forecast selected When an individual forecast is selected, the user may also turn on the Wind Swath forecast and Precipitation Swath forecast (when available) 21 21
ProWxAlerts Probabilities Hurricane: Wind Forecast Winds The user may toggle to Wind Speed Forecasts for a particular storm Once selected, the user can view Tropical Storm Force wind probabilities for a forecast, or Hurricane Force wind probabilities for the forecast The user can use the time slider to view the progression of these wind speed probabilities over the entire length of the forecast 22 22
Weather Tracker Weather Tracker, found on the left toolbar of ProWxVerify, allows users to view severe weather storm tracks on a state-by-state basis Access Weather Tracker can be accessed via one of the two following options: 1) Directly via its URL: http://proagweatherwatch.com/dexter/tracker, using ProWxAlerts login credentials 2) From ProWxAlerts via the following left toolbar path: 1. Clicking Products 2. Selecting ProWxVerify 3. Clicking on Weather Tracker 23 23
Weather Tracker: Data Weather Tracker Data Weather Tracker uses 0.6 square mile resolution for hail, straight-line wind, and tornadic storm data across the continental US Users select a date and peril at the top Tracker s Daily Digest feature will then find all states with hail reported on the date selected, organized by most to least hail data points Alternatively, users may select the state first, using the Daily Digest drop down, to search for one state specifically 24 24
Weather Tracker: Hail Hail Tracks Once a date, peril, and state are selected, Tracker visualizes all data in this case, hail data, for the particular state, with an interactive legend on the left Users may zoom in over a swath and use the toggle to turn off lower thresholds Users may also switch amongst days, perils, and states using the selections at the top left 25 25
Weather Tracker: Tornadic Storm Tornadic Storm Tracks In addition to hail, Tracker provides similar statewide tracks for tornadic storms These tornadic storm tracks are updated every hour with track information from the previous hour Orange cells represent the tracked location of tornadic activity within a storm. Red cells represent the location of a debris signature, a radar indication of airborne objects of various size and further evidence of tornadic activity 26 26
Weather Tracker: Storm Reports Storm Reports In addition to our comprehensive hail and tornadic storm tracks at 0.6 square mile resolution, Tracker provides supplemental information in the form of human-observed ground reports, which are found at the top right of Tracker These ground observations are plotted nationwide for hail, tornado, and wind Users may click on each peril in the legend to toggle that peril on/off on the map Users may also click a particular report on the map to view more detailed information 27 27
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