Experiences from offshore wind installations in the North Sea Science Meets Industry April 2014 Maria Pedrosa - Head Aviation Services
STORMGEO GROUP where we are 22 Offices g 7 Forecast Centres g 1 Vision Anchorage New York Bergen Stavanger Aberdeen London Stockholm Oslo Copenhagen Hamburg Baku Seoul Silicon Valley Houston Miami Dubai Muscat Shanghai Hong Kong Tokyo Singapore Rio de Janeiro 24/7 Operation Centres / Sales Daytime Operational Support / Sales R&D COMPETENCE - INSPIRATION - INNOVATION
STORMGEO GROUP what we do Core competence Decision Support for Weather Sensitive Operations. Core competence Meteorology Oceanography Naval Architecture Statistics Business development Solutions Transforming know-how into cutting edge products together with our customers. 3
REFERENCES - North Sea/Irish Sea Project Thanet London Array Sheringham Shoal Gwynt y Môr Dogger Bank Humber Gateway Dudgeon Beatrice Firth of Forth Hywind Scotland Client Vattenfall London Array Ltd. SCIRA RWE Innogy Fred.Olsen Windcarrier and Forewind E.ON SCIRA SSE/Repsol Seagreen, ESG Statoil
REFERENCES - GERMANY Project BARD 1 Nordsee Ost alpha ventus Riffgat Meerwind Amrumbank DanTysk Borkum I HelWin1 BorWin2 Baltic 1 Baltic 2 Butendiek Client BARD RWE Innogy EWE EWE WindMW E.ON ABJV, Van Oord Technip SeaRenergy SeaRenergy EnBW EnBW WPD
FORECAST SITES
WHAT IS A WEATHER FORECAST? A prediction of the future state of the atmosphere based on current atmospheric conditions
OBSERVATIONS Key to accurate forecasts Provide an accurate starting point to the forecast Allow real-time monitoring Provide a dataset for analyses, e.g. - forecast verification - hindcast reports - future design criteria
FORECASTING Forecast Models simulate the physical processes of the atmosphere to produce a numerical forecast
FINE SCALE MODELLING External Data From Global to Local 3DVar/ENKF SAM Global Models 25-100 km Regional Models 1-16 km Local Fine Scale Models 300m-4 km WRF 9 km WRF 3 km WRF 1 km SWAN 300m Projects
THE NEARSHORE ENVIRONMENT Challenges: Model Land/Sea mask Coastal Effects Tidal Effects Successful Forecasts: Observations Forecaster Intervention May Require Fine-scale Models Grid spacing 16km
THE NEARSHORE ENVIRONMENT Challenges: Model Land/Sea mask Coastal Effects Tidal Effects Successful Forecasts: Observations Forecaster Intervention May Require Fine-scale Models Grid spacing 16km
WAVE MODELS AT 300M RESOLUTION SWAN 300 m Broadhaven Hit 72% ME -0.2 ECMWF ECMWF Hit 65% ME -0.3
WAVE MODELS AT 300M RESOLUTION SWAN 300 m Broadhaven Hit 72% ME -0.2 June 2013 Broadhaven Bay Swan model identified an operational window for a Shell umbilical laying job that saved 2-3 weeks of work ECMWF ECMWF Hit 65% ME -0.3
THE FORECAST PROCESS Numerical Modelling Observations Customer Forecast Human Forecaster
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecaster intervention is done on raw model output
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecaster intervention is done on raw model output
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer Hi Bard1 High risk of lightning between 1500 and 1800 today when front passes
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer OK RWE NSO High confidence of weather window tomorrow. Hsig falling below 2.1m between 0300 and 2200
THE FORECAST PROCESS Forecasts to Customer Yes LAL Winds above 22ms-1 for next 12 hours, but decreasing below by 0600 tomorrow
SAFE AND EFFICIENT OPERATIONS We manage numerous customer operational limits. It can be very complex! One Customer typically has the following limits: Crew boat transfer to turbines: Hsig = 1.0-1.3 m Crew transfer to turbines by helicopter: Wind 22 m/s. Vis. 5km. Cloud base 1500ft Work on rotating parts in turbine: 15 m/s All work on turbine: 25 m/s
SAFE AND EFFICIENT OPERATIONS We manage numerous customer operational limits. It can be very complex! and more: Crane vessel ops: Transfer: Hs 2m. Wave period 8s Jack-up: Hs 0.5-0.75m - depending on direction of vessel vs wave direction Crane ops: 9m/s at 100m
CERTIFIED AVIATION FORECASTS Position StormGeo is the challenger in this market, as well as offering services to oil&gas operators not having integrated solutions today. Products Official aviation forecasts Operational decision guidance Aviation training Aviation instrumentation Certification StormGeo is the only ICAO certified private company in Europe for producing aviation forecasts.
DECISION SUPPORT SOLUTIONS Integration of our capabilities and deliveries into our customers operative environment We help our customers to Manage risk Improve planning Control cost Reduce down-time Protect revenue
EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE Weather Appreciation Workshops Specialist Lunch and Learns Reciprocal Liaison Visits 28
Thank You 29