Exploitation of Ocean Predictions by the Oil and Gas Industry. GODAE OceanView Symposium 2013
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1 Exploitation of Ocean Predictions by the Oil and Gas Industry GODAE OceanView Symposium 2013
2 Introduction Information needs Challenges
3 Acknowledgements IMarEST/SUT Metocean Awareness Course Colleagues across the metocean services industry
4 Introduction Information needs Challenges
5 Offshore Lease Appraisal Identify technical & financial risks Estimate potential cost of field development Metocean information needs: Basic classification of metocean environment Highlight risks/hazards e.g. strong currents
6 Offshore Seismic & Site Surveys Seismic - initial exploration & 4D over field life Site Surveys prior to drilling & for field development Metocean limitations - sea state and variable currents Sea state - limits deployment & recovery, operations, noise Cross-currents feathering angle Optimise survey line orientation Variable angle with changes in current speed & direction
7 Offshore Seismic & Site Surveys During the Survey: Site & application specific wind & wave forecasts Current forecasts where currents are an operational constraint
8 Offshore Exploration & Appraisal Drilling Feasibility: Initial Desk study to identify Metocean conditions & processes Significant hazards (tropical cyclones, strong currents)
9 Offshore Exploration & Appraisal Drilling Rig Selection, Mooring & Riser Design: Wind & wave monthly statistics potential downtime Average, good and bad years Significant Wave Height (Hs) Percentage Exceedence
10 Offshore Exploration & Appraisal Drilling Rig Selection, Mooring & Riser Design: Extreme event criteria & current profile Selection of return period for mooring design
11 Offshore Exploration & Appraisal Drilling Drilling: Site-specific weather forecasts Current forecasts (in locations where currents may be an operational constraint, eg GoM)
12 Offshore Field Development Concept Selection influenced by: Field characteristics Water depth Metocean conditions Source: Options to produce deepwater oil, gas to proliferate, Guntis Moritis, Oil & Gas Journal, December 13, 1999.
13 Fixed Offshore Structures Limit State Design Wind, wave, current criteria: 1, 10, 50 & 100, return period Design: 100 yr with 1% annual probability of occurrence Over 30 year field life, 26% chance 100 yr value exceeded. Accidental Limit State (ALS) design 1,000 and 10,000 yr return period values Also used to determine air gap Response Based Design Joint wind/wave/current/surge criteria Equating to 100 yr load Fatigue Assessment Wave height vs wave period scatter diagrams Directional frequency of occurrence
14 Towing & Installation of Offshore Structures & Topsides Metocean Impact on: Installation method Barge selection Design of sea fastenings Tow route Hazards Long period waves Wave height Cross seas Strong currents Wind/wave/current offsets
15 Towing & Installation of Offshore Structures & Topsides Operational Planning for Tow & Installation: Wind & wave monthly statistics potential downtime Average, good and bad years Persistence analysis
16 Towing & Installation of Offshore Structures & Topsides Ocean Tow and Installation Design Aspects: Assess Metocean hazards en route & at site Metocean criteria for tow route and installation site Assessment of fatigue loading for tow & installation Wind, wave and current data for float-over vessel motion computations
17 Towing & Installation of Offshore Structures & Topsides Tow & Installation: Tow-specific and site-specific wind and wave forecasting Real-time wind and directional sea state monitoring Barge motion monitoring Current forecasting and real-time current measurement where the flow regime is complex
18 Floating Production Systems Metocean Factors: Response to joint wind, wave & current conditions Design Operability Tanker offloading
19 Floating Production Systems System Design/Selection - Conceptual design: Input: Winds, waves & currents (profile) Extremes by direction & month Operational statistics by direction & month Split directional wave spectra into wind-sea and swell components Directional offsets between incident currents, waves and winds Determine vessel alignment & motions using response model Ambient and extreme sea temperatures through the water column Current 0.13m/s Swell 2.8 m, 12.7 s Wind-sea 3.0 m, 6.9 s Ship Heading Wind 9.4 m/s
20 Floating Production Systems Offshore Installation: Wind, wave and current statistics for planning Monthly percentage exceedence Persistence analysis by month in average, good and bad years; For subsea & mooring installation, & vessel hook-up Metocean measurements site-specific weather and current forecasts; Operation: Real-time current & wave measurements; Site-specific weather (& current) forecasts.
21 Subsea, Pipelines & Cables Near-Shore and Landfall Design: Tide & Surge Shore approach design waves & currents Extreme wave run-up level at shoreline for bund design Assessment of sediment and coastline stability Extreme and ambient near-bed temperatures
22 Subsea, Pipelines & Cables Shallow & deepwater design: Extreme near bed wave-induced and current velocities (directional) Joint wave and current data for responsebased design analysis Directional metocean criteria optimised on on-bottom pipeline stability Bottom sediment stability Extreme and ambient near-bed temperatures
23 Installation & repair: Wind, wave & current statistics for planning and optimising pipelaying barge selection: Subsea, Pipelines & Cables Monthly percentage exceedence Persistence analysis Weather windows analysis by month in average, good and bad years
24 Installation & repair: Subsea, Pipelines & Cables Real-time metocean data Site-specific weather (& current) forecasts.
25 Jetty Design: Wind, wave, current & water level statistics by month average, bad and good years Coastal Facilities Long period wave energy Infra-gravity waves Vessel response to metocean conditions safety & potential downtime Sediment transport dredging & scour Extremes and for design Structure, deck elevation, piles
26 Coastal Protection: Normal and extreme conditions: Coastal Facilities near-shore waves by direction water levels; Joint occurrence wave & water levels Marine Cooling Water and Desalination Systems: Monthly mean, maximum and minimum sea water temperatures Local circulation
27 Offshore Operations (Logistics) Oil & Gas Production Aviation Vessels ROV/AUV operations Oil spill contingency Metocean deliverables: Metocean Operational Planning Statistics Real-Time Metocean Measurements Forecasts
28 Offshore Operations (Logistics) Wind, wave & current statistics for planning & optimisation: by month in average, good and bad years downtime persistence Significant Wave Height (Hs) Percentage Exceedence matrix
29 Offshore Operations (Logistics) Offshore Weather Forecasts:
30 Decommissioning Metocean Requirements Design extremes Operational statistics Forecasts
31 Introduction Information needs Challenges
32 Ocean predictions and the oil & gas industry Ocean predictions have essentially three types of use: Reanalysis/hindcast products to support determining design criteria and particularly extreme design conditions Reanalysis products/hindcasts to support operational planning and evaluation of operational risks Forecasts to support real time operations, short term planning and emergency response
33 How useful are present ocean predictions? Ocean winds Shell s Kulluk drilling rig grounded just off the coast Sitkalidak Island, near Kodiak Island, after running loose when towed during a near hurricane-strength storm on 27 Dec.2012 Generally acceptable quality for short term forecasts and as custom reanalyses for specific basins Challenges: Squall forecasts New basins Climate change
34 How useful are present ocean predictions? Waves Generally acceptable quality for both short term forecasts and as hindcast databases. Suitable calibration with measured data permits use for design studies and operability analyses. Challenges: Long period swells Internal waves New basins Climate change
35 How useful are present ocean predictions? Currents Hindcasts frequently miss peak events when compared to measured data. Some skill in certain regions on a climatological basis. Used with care by the industry, for design studies; often after calibration & adjustment Limited site specific forecast skill Challenges: Hindcast skill improvements sufficient to reduce need for site-specific measurements Improved forecast skill
36 How useful are present ocean predictions? Other variables Temperatures & Salinity Industry not a major user. Hindcast archives used for design (flow assurance issues hydrate formation etc). Oil spill weathering issues Sea ice hindcasts/forecasts Growing importance with progressive moves towards increased Arctic exploration and production
37 Conclusions Wind and wave reanalysis/hindcast and short-term forecast products generally fit for purpose Moving towards sufficiently skilled current hindcasts for major oil and gas basins Challenges remain with delivery of adequate shortterm current forecasts in some regions Need to address requirements in new exploration and production regions (eg Arctic/Southern Ocean) Challenges with effective use of climate projections
38 Questions Thank You Questions? 38
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