T-storm Weather Summary Extreme heat was followed by heavy rain in some key areas of Argentina yesterday. T-storms affect much of the driest Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay through 7 to 10 days, but potentially miss far-southwest Argentina where a concentration of sunflowers exists; a drier period follows for all. Northern areas of Brazil will be drier than in recent weeks, but t-storms return in 7 to 10 days. Otherwise, U.S. cattle and HRW wheat in the Plains turn cold from late-week forward, but winterkill is unlikely and the chance for a major winter storm is low. T-storm Weather Highlights Weekend t-storms were heavier than expected in central Argentina; heat was intense prior to t-storms. No change: 1.75 to 3.50 of rain affects northern Arg., southern Brazil, and Paraguay through 7 to 10 days. No change: to 2.00 affects central Arg. through Sat., but amounts diminish into southern areas. Cooler: below-normal temperatures affect Arg., southern Brazil, and Paraguay through 10 days. Slightly drier: well-organized rainfall is unlikely in northern areas of Brazil until 7 to 10 days from now. Snowier: some snows affect central and northern areas of the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains. Model Notes None. Page 2 3 4 5+ Description South America Discussion United States Discussion Today's Normal Crop Phase Table Supporting Pages 1
SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION Weather Outlook Over the next 7 to 10 days, a series of systems and cool fronts sweep across Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay. Widespread rainfall results for most grains and oilseeds with to 2.00 in central Argentina to contrast with 1.75 to 3.50 in northern Argentina, South Brazil and Paraguay (6). Southern Argentina (esp. La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires) will be drier as t-storms focus to the north and east, leaving some sunflowers unseasonably dry. Regarding timing, scattered t-storms affect South Brazil and Paraguay each day, especially today, Thu., and next Sun, while a few t-storms linger today in northern Argentina, followed by better-organized t-storms Tue.-Wed. and Fri.-Sat. Temperatures will fluctuate as each system approaches and passes, but average considerably cooler than normal as maximums stay in the 80s most days, essentially marking an end to the recent period of heat. A drier period resumes next Sun. in Argentina as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall, but t-storms will occasionally continue in South Brazil and Paraguay where the remnant of a cool front lingers. The longevity of drying will take many days to determine, but rain will not immediately be needed. Otherwise, central and northern areas of Brazil will be drier than normal over the next week as upperlevel high pressure keeps t-storms focused to the south. A wetter period follows in 7 to 10 days as cool fronts shift to the north and trigger t-storms, but most areas will be drier than normal over the next two weeks with 1.75 to 3.50 of rain most common (~4.00 to ~5.00 is normal of the period). Recent Weather Rainfall amounts were higher than expected in key areas of / adjacent central Arg. as to 2.00 fell from heavy t-storms last night (7, 8). Otherwise, temperatures were hotter than expected yesterday in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay as maximums reached the upper-90s to upper-100s. Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion As of Friday, rain was needed in Arg. because 96%, 93% and 90% of its corn, soybean, and sunflower production had been drier than normal over the last 30 days, including 81%, 72%, and 67% that received less than half of normal (9-12). Brazil was wetter with only 33% and 36% of first-crop corn and soybeans drier than normal over the period, primarily due to dryness in the South (10). Temperatures in both areas were 2F to 3F above normal over the last two weeks, but not unusually warm (xx) Note that 17% and 53% of second-crop corn and soybeans were planted in Arg. as of Thu., while first-crop corn, sunflowers, and / or soybeans are near-fully planted in Arg. and Brazil (AgRural, BAGE) Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Region Argentina Corn (1 st ) Corn (2 nd ) Soy. Sunflower Wheat Central 54% 56% 13% 36% North 13% 8% 13% 4% South 31% 36% 74% 59% Brazil Center-West 13% 66% 49% 2% Northeast 11% 4% 8% 0% South 43% 23% 33% 95% Click here to review detailed crop production maps for Argentina and Southeast 30% 5% 6% 4% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2010/11-2014/15), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (2012-14) 2
UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Central U.S. Weather Outlook Unseasonable mildness continues through Thu.-Fri. across the central U.S., after which a sharply colder period unfolds from northwest to southwest over the following five days, leaving a very sharp northwestto-southeast divide between intense coldness and summer-like warmth next weekend and early the following week. A few days of intense coldness are likely next week in the Plains and Corn Belt, but the longevity of the cold snap is debatable and most likely to focus on the northern Plains, northern Corn Belt, and points east with time. As a result, key cattle and HRW wheat areas of the Plains only receiving glancing blows of coldness within the period. Temperatures may fall below 0 F from Nebraska and points north, but at least some snowpack is probable to exist and limit the winterkill threat. Periods of heavy rain focus on the Delta and far-southeast Corn Belt over the next 10 to 14 days as waves of energy flow between cold and warm air. The setup also makes a winter storm plausible with time in cattle and HRW wheat areas of the Plains, but many uncertainties exist with the main points being that a major storm is not on the immediate horizon and would be more than one week out. That said, several rounds of light snow affect the northern third to half of the Corn Belt and Plains over the next week, especially from the Dakotas through Wisconsin, including the potential for a winter storm in the northern Corn Belt Friday. Recent Weather Widespread rain over the weekend focused on SRW wheat in the Delta, and missed most cattle and HRW wheat in the Plains to the immediate east (15). Temperatures remained unusually mild with HRW wheat averaging +8 F from normal thus far in December (16). Crop and Soil Moisture Overview The central and southern Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen, leaving 86% of HRW wheat drier than normal over the period (16, 17). Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 61% 2% 47% 13% Delta 5% 11% 0% 25% 0% Plains Central 17% 12% 56% 0% 0% North 8% 10% 18% 0% 73% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 5% 5% 0% 28% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 13% Data source: USDA (2011-2015) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over 2011-2015. 3
TODAY'S NORMAL CROP PHASE Argentina Brazil United States Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Crop Crop Phase Phase Phase Corn, Early-Planted Corn, Late-Planted Silking Planting Corn, First Crop Corn, Second Crop Silking / Filling Out of Season Corn Out of Season Soybeans, First Crop Soybeans, Second Crop Planting / Vegetative Out of Season Soybeans, Northern Areas Soybeans, Southern Areas Flowering Flowering Soybeans Out of Season Sunflowers Veg. / Rep. / Maturing Spring Wheat Out of Season Winter Wheat Harvesting Winter Wheat Out of Season Source: Various USDA website sources Hard Red Winter Wheat Soft Red Winter Wheat Dormant Dormant 4
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Forecast: 7-Day Precipitation (") Through Sunday Morning, December 24 Forecast: 7-Day Prcp. (Percent of Average) Through Sunday Morning, December 24 0.50 57 57 28 0.50 57 52 57 57 28 1.50 1.50 1.25 2.00 2.00 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00 52 73 125 125 48 48 42 55 86 98 89 107 92 46 44 44 2.00 2.25 1.50 2.25 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 141 168 117 174 210 206 154 171 199 140 179 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.75 2.00 2.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 1.25 0.75 0.50 0.75 0.50 0.75 0.25 3.00 3.00 131 136 110 89 46 156 159 160 162 175 148 86 65 64 46 69 26 220 202 6
Precipitation Estimate (mm) 24-Hour Period Ending Today at 6 AM Central Time (1200 UTC) Image Courtesy: NOAA Note: 25mm is approximately 7
Precipitation Estimate (mm) 24-Hour Period Ending Yesterday at 6 AM Central Time (1200 UTC) Image Courtesy: NOAA Note: 25mm is approximately 8
CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY ARGENTINA CROP PRODUCTION 2014/15-2016/17 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/15/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 47% 67% 77% 85% 44% 33% 22% 13% 9% 2% 1% 0% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 30% 39% 31% 55% 36% 9% 76% 24% 1% 54% 46% 0% SOYBEANS LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 47% Chart not available until tomorrow 75% 38% 16% 18% 7% 78% 22% 0% 65% 35% 0% SUNFLOWER WINTER WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) 35% 42% 54% 52% DROUG 0.154458284 SUBSOI 0.127477536 0.188048366 DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 34% 14% 0.482994685 0.362547031 82% 14% 4% 0.66729315 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 66% 32% 0.143385109 2% NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina M inistry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 83% 53% 29% 53% 64% 47% 17% 17% 4% 0% 0% 1% 9
CORN (CROP #1) PERIOD LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION 2013/14-2015/16 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, 26% 26% 28% VALID TWO DAYS AGO (12/15/17) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 44% 46% 60% 60% 35% 26% 21% 13% 13% CORN (CROP #2) LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 27% 55% 18% 27% 49% 23% 27% 55% 18% 22% 51% 27% SOYBEANS SUGAR LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS LAST 90 DAYS 29% Chart not available until tomorrow 37% 58% 14% 46% 16% 29% 58% 14% 27% 50% 23% 21% 41% 38% DROUG 0.154458284 0.482994685 19% 38% 0.362547031 44% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 21% 41% 38% 0.143385109 15% 62% 23% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary Geographic Information System analysis of Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and include at least 99%, 98%, and 97% of corn, soybean, and sugar production. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 10
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UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Email: weather@tstorm.net Chart not available today 14
Radar-Estimated Precipitation 48-Hour Period Ending at 9 AM Central Time (1500 UTC) Today Source: National Weather Service 15
WINTER WHEAT (HARD RED) WINTER WHEAT (SOFT RED) PERIOD (SOIL PROXY) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY U.S. PRODUCTION 2011-2015 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY 4-KM 2 PRECIPITATION GRIDS, AS OF YESTERDAY AT 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) 21% 18% 72% 13% 15% DROUG 0.154458284 73% 0.482994685 0.362547031 25% 2% 0.127477536 0.66729315 0.188048366 0.472783898 0.064914897 0.668566525 0.399738566 0.267791952 SUBSOI 56% 34% 0.143385109 11% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of USDA county-level crop production data weighted by 4-km by 4-km precipitation grids. Production data is averaged for each county over the last five years to develop weights and included at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the Mississippi River. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 85% 89% 86% 91% 47% 62% 14% 55% 86% 75% TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE ( F), WEIGHTED BY U.S. CROP PRODUCTION FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY- AND DISTRICT-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY THE CONTOURED MEAN OF THE 1) 6-HOUR MINIMUM ENDING AT 7 AM CENTRAL TIME, AND 2) 6-HOUR MAXIMUM ENDING AT 7 PM CENTRAL TIME, COMPARED TO THE CROP-WEIGHTED NORMAL FOR THE DAY 37% 32% 6% 8% 21% 7% 5% 7% 9% 11% 4% 4% 6% 7% 8% --- DEPARTURE FROM 30-YEAR NORMAL --- --- DEPARTURE FROM LAST YEAR --- YESTERDAY +10.5 +11.1 YESTERDAY HRW WHEAT LAST 7 DAYS +10.3 +16.1 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS +7.2 +13.2 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +8.5 +9.5 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS +3.8-0.3 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER +7.5 +13.0 DECEMBER -10-5 0 +5 +10 +15-5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 SRW WHEAT YESTERDAY +1.6 +13.7 YESTERDAY LAST 7 DAYS -3.0 +3.2 LAST 7 DAYS LAST 14 DAYS -1.1 +2.7 LAST 14 DAYS LAST 30 DAYS +0.5 +0.9 LAST 30 DAYS LAST 60 DAYS -0.3-2.6 LAST 60 DAYS DECEMBER -0.4 +2.7 DECEMBER -10-5 0 +5 +10 +15-5 0 +5 +10 +15 +20 Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of United States Department of Agriculture county-level crop production data weighted by contoured daily temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 1981-2010 maximum and minimum temperature normals from PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu. Production data is averaged for each U.S. county over the last five years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; PNW wheat is winter wheat in ID, OR, WA; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the M ississippi River. 16
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