2017-2018 Winter Forecast Issued November 27, 2017 Written by Gary Lezak
Ini$al Thoughts & Ques$ons On This Winter 1. A unique weather pa;ern is now set and cycling, but what does it mean for each loca$on in the Northern Hemisphere? 2. La Niña is growing stronger, and we are forecas$ng a moderately strong La Niña this winter. 3. In Kansas City, the past three winters we have been sta$ng, We are in the wrong spot to our weather enthusiasts on the KSHB and Weather2020 blogs. What have we meant by being in the wrong spot? Storm systems just have not intensified in $me to bring Kansas City much in the way of winter weather, in the form of snow or ice. Is KC in the wrong spot for the fourth consecu$ve winter? Or, will a few winter storms come together to produce the first 3 storm since 2013? 4. There are some indica$ons that Kansas City will have near to above average snowfall, but below average overall liquid equivalent precipita$on. We will explain in this winter forecast in the coming pages. 5. This Cycling Pa;ern technology, known as the LRC, provides us with tremendous insight. While other forecasts for the winter show one map that tries to forecast the en$re winter. We will go in- depth and try to dig deeper into the first signals.
Cycling Pa;erns The Earth rotates once every 24 hours At the equator there are two mini- cycles of day and night both equal to 12 hours Each of these 12 hours can be cut in half into 6 hour cycles, which leads to four six hour cycles per day. These smaller mini- cycles can be called harmonics of the overall pa;ern and are likely very important The moon rotates around the Earth, with the same lunar surface always facing Earth, with the moon phase cycle repea$ng every 27.53 days. Each of the 4 lunar phases lasts around 7 days There are obviously cycles that exist in our world and beyond. And, there are regular periods and phases to these cycles. Just one rota$on of the earth takes 24 hours, and that can be cut in half, thirds, fourths, etc. There is equal day and night every 24 hours at the equator. If these cycles exist, then why wouldn t they exist in the way we look at the weather. And, if it is shown that cycles repeat, as they do with the Earth s rota$on around the sun every 365 days, and the moon s orbit of the earth every 28 days or so, why wouldn t the weather also be cycling regularly? Here is the Arc$c Oscilla$on (AO) as of November 25. This index is rather obviously cycling with varying phases above and below that neutral line. This cycle has been shown to have li;le in the way of predictability. It is an important influence on the pa;ern. The weather pa;ern is cycling regularly and it is described by a hypotheses that has been evolving for at least 67 years now. This is called the LRC, or the CPH for Cycling Pa;ern Hypothesis un$l it is peer reviewed some$me in the near future. Let s take a look at this cycling pa;ern.
The Long Range Weather Forecast Puzzle There is organiza$on to the chaos in the weather pa;erns cycling above us in the troposphere. The LRC is the centerpiece of this big atmospheric puzzle, but there are other influences on the pa;ern that we will discuss in this winter forecast. La Niña has been strengthening in this late fall, and it appears that it will become a moderate La Niña winter. This is one of the influences on the cycling pa;ern. Other influences are the Arc$c Oscilla$on (AO) and the North Atlan$c Oscilla$on (NAO). These teleconnec$ons are being monitored closely and it will be discussed in this winter forecast. Another factor is the Madden- Julian Oscilla$on (MJO). The MJO describes outgoing Long- wave radia$on (OLR) over the tropics. Basically the MJO shows tropical complexes of thunderstorms that cycle every 30-60 days or so. It is some$mes even called the 30-60 day oscilla$on. The LRC has been shown to also be cycling at somewhere in the 35 to 80 day range. The LRC is very possibly the link between the tropics and the Arc$c, but may actually describe a global cycle, with one predominant cycling pa;ern over the Northern Hemisphere, with a different cycling pa;ern over the Southern Hemisphere. There are other likely factors; other ocean temperature anomalies, land/sea temperature contrasts, and large land air masses that likely help determine the overall pa;ern. We are s$ll iden$fying these other features. One thing we know for certain, however, is that the pa;ern is set, it is cycling, and the Weather2020 & KSHB teams will be making accurate forecasts this winter and through next September from 1 day to 200 days into the future.
The LRC A unique weather pa;ern sets up every year between October 1 st and November 10 th Long term long- wave troughs and ridges develop and these become the main features that will influence the climate for each loca$on during the next year The weather pa;ern is cycling and regularly according to 30 years of analysis in this Cycling Pa;ern Hypothesis. This cycle can be determined, usually by mid- December, and this will provide the weather forecaster with insight into how the pa;ern will look days, weeks, and months into the future Hundreds of accurate forecasts have been made in the past few years using the LRC. This past summer Weather2020, LLC accurately predicted Major Hurricane Harvey 55 days before it struck Texas. Years ago, the outdoor Super Bowl in East Rutherford, NJ was also accurately predicted. The accurate Super Bowl forecast The blue shade (red arrows) shows the upper flow forecast by various models from three days to 16 days before verifica$on. The red flow (blue arrows) shows our forecast and what ended up verifying. 28 days before this big outdoor Super Bowl event in 2014, Weather2020 knew what the pa;ern would most likely look like and this forecast was made; No Chance Of Snow, with temperatures warming into the 50s. What happened? It was 54 just before kickoff, and of course there was no snow. Computer models would come out, like the GFS model on the right above. With knowledge of the LRC, this forecast was made by knowing that the pa;ern would look more like what happened in the previous cycle, and not what the models were showing.
Other Big Predic$ons ü Arc$c outbreaks forecasted 30 to 60 days before they happened almost flawlessly predicted during the past five winters ü A forecast for tornado outbreaks made 150 days before the big Moore, OK and El Reno, OK deadly tornadoes in 2013 ü 5 Winter Storms Forecast To Hit The KC Metro four years ago. 4 out of the 5 happened! These forecasts were made weeks before they happened. ü No major heat waves forecast the past two summers ü Hurricane Cristobal accurately predicted with 55 days lead $me. ü 60 day accurate long range forecast for the Masters Golf Tournament in Augusta, Georgia predic$ng rain in the early rounds and then nice two years ago ü 60 day accurate predic$on of the dry track at the Kentucky Derby. ü 45 day accurate forecast for when severe weather would occur in key loca$ons of tornado alley and the southeast, loca$on and $ming! ü 60 day predic$on of El Niño not impac$ng California last year. Weather2020 predicted another dry year across the Los Angeles basin ü 60 day accurate predic$on of bumper corn and soybean crops in 2014. Weather2020 predicted rainfall and, most importantly, no chance of a major heat wave this past summer with another bumper crop forecasted. These verified!
Weak to Moderate La Niña Is Likely This Winter One big influence, that is emphasized in most other winter forecasts, is the El Niño Southern Oscilla$on (ENSO). This year is forecast to be a weak to moderate La Niña. The influence of this cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters will vary from loca$on to loca$on around the globe. Two years ago there was a very strong El Niño, but it s$ll didn t result In the forecast flooding and mudslides in California. In fact, it was the exact opposite of what was forecast by the Climate Predic$on Center; It was dry again across Southern California. Then last year was forecast to be a weak La Niña and the dry predic$ons also failed, as it was very wet with the drought ending out west. These examples showcase that something bigger is going on, and why ENSO is just an influence on the cycling pa;ern. In the four previous moderate La Niña s, Kansas City has had 25.6, 20.5, 19.1, and 3.9 of winter season snowfall. We are going to take out the 3.9 snow year as that was also influenced by a very posi$ve Arc$c Oscilla$on. The other three years had neutral to nega$ve AO seasons, and it appears we are heading in this direc$on. This small sample size leans towards slight above average snowfall.
The Arc$c Oscilla$on & The North Atlan$c Oscilla$on The Arc$c Oscilla$on (AO) and the North Atlan$c Oscilla$on (NAO) are closely related. The AO is characterized by pressure varia$ons. In the Nega$ve phase of the AO Arc$c air is much more likely to blast south and this creates a stronger temperature contrast. The jet stream is strengthened by stronger temperature gradients and this leads to more powerful storm systems. The same can be said about the NAO. When either of these indexes go into the posi$ve, Arc$c air is more likely going to be held north and storm systems are weaker over the United States. This happened during the very mild winter of 2011-2012 when the AO was strongly posi$ve. This season the AO and NAO have been close to neutral or nega$ve with strong indica$ons of them going deeper nega$ve two or three $mes in the next few months. A nega$ve to neutral AO and NAO, combined with a moderate La Niña have Kansas City poin$ng in a snowier direc$on, even though the winter may come in drier than average.
The AO & NAO Have Been Neutral To Nega4ve This Season The AO and NAO have trended nega$ve during the second half of November. If these indexes dip deeper into the nega$ve, then the poten$al for major Arc$c outbreaks increases. One deeper dip to AO nega$ve will lead to 10-14 very cold days, with a likely Arc$c blast Two deeper dips will lead to 20-28 very cold days, with two or three Arc$c blasts Three dips will lead to 30-42 very cold days, with three or more Arc$c blasts This years pa;ern did not have an early Arc$c blast. The poten$al for the first major Arc$c blast will be developing around the middle of December. What happens in this first winter month is highly important and we are forecas$ng a cold month of December from the Great Lakes south into the plains states. The cold blasts will likely arrive in the east around Christmas week.
One Major Part Of The Pa;ern That Is Likely In Each Cycle October 24, 2017 November 1, 2017 According to the LRC, the weather pa;ern sets up in the fall, becomes established, and then cycles regularly through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and through the next summer. One of the main aspects of this Cycling Pa;ern Hypothesis is that long term long- wave troughs and ridges become established. These are the anchor troughs that will return on schedule. The cycle length will be determined in the next few days/weeks. Once the cycle length is determined, the forecaster can then predict when these features will return, and make weather forecasts based on this knowledge for any loca$on chosen across the Northern Hemisphere. On October 24, 2017, the map on the leq, a deep trough develops over eastern North America. A deep upper low forms near the Great Lakes. What happens next is fascina$ng as you can see showcased in the 500 milibar map on the right, valid November 1, 2017 or eight days later. A large cyclonic circula$on forms over the North American con$nent by early November. Expect this to return during the second half of December, likely the week before Christmas. This part of the pa;ern will also be likely to return around the first half of February. This pa;ern will highly likely result in a cold outbreak with poten$al winter storm systems. This will increase the chance of a white Christmas in many northern United States to Great Lakes loca$ons.
Early Signals Of Storm Systems That Should Affect The Plains October 7, 2017 Hurricane Nate Forms. Look For This To Return In August or September As this weather pa;ern evolved, according to the LRC, there was a signature look that has returned in the second cycle already. The October 7 th to 10 th period returned in late November, which is an early indica$on of a 45 to 51 day cycle. This has not been confirmed yet, but it should be within a couple of weeks, or by mid- December. In this part of the cycling pa;ern, storm systems should blast the the Pacific northwest and affect parts of the plains. The second cycle version of this part of the pa;ern has remained mostly dry, but this may very well be we;er in future cycles. This part of the pa;ern will likely bring above average temperatures to the eastern seaboard. This will be around 15 to 20 day stretch in each cycle. October 22, 2017 Another rather interes$ng and important part of this pa;ern to note is what became Hurricane Nate. Nate formed as this pa;ern evolved, and when this pa;ern returns during hurricane season, it will likely be a major threat in August or September.
Winter Forecast Impact Areas This winter forecast snapshot shows where it is most likely to be colder than average this winter, and where it is most likely going to be warmer than average this winter from December through February. This also lines up fairly well with a classic La Niña forecast. When will storm systems happen? When will it turn cold? Where will the storm systems hit most oqen, and miss most oqen? Follow the weather blogs closely for these answers in the coming weeks.
The preliminary informa$on that has been analyzed in this early season is strongly indica$ng a rather dry weather pa;ern in many areas. There is a lot more to analyze than just these results. As you can see on the map, bo;om leq, it has been excessively dry in this early season from the southwestern United States extending out across most of the plains and deep south. Percentage of Average Precipitation 30 days Ending November 25, 2017 The winter forecast is for a 60 to 80 percent chance of a drier than average winter across these same areas. This includes the spring wheat areas of the northern plains, the hard red winter wheat areas of the central and southern plains across Nebraska south into Texas, which also extends east into the western corn belt. This includes Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri. There is some concern for the co;on growing areas across western Texas, and also across southern Missouri into Louisiana. One area that should have adequate soil moisture is across the eastern corn belt from Illinois, across Michigan, to Indiana and Ohio.
Kansas City Snowfall During the past eight years Kansas City has had anywhere from 44 of snow all the way down to only 3.9. That low year happened during a very posi$ve index in the Arc$c Oscilla$on during the winter of 2011-2012. This is an eight- year average of 20.7, which is above the 100- year average of 18.8. Our Weather team is forecas$ng slightly below average snowfall. The chance of it being a drier than average winter is rather high with this pa;ern that has set up. It doesn t take much to get to near or above average; it only takes one very wet storm and the winter can come in above average, but we lean strongly in a drier winter, and yet I am forecas$ng above average on snowfall. This is en$rely possible if most of the precipita$on during the winter months comes in the form of snow.