Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Tuesday, September 12, 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irma, Hurricane Jose, & Tropical Wave (10%) This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational and situational awareness purposes only. Forecast conditions are subject to change based on a variety of environmental factors. For additional information, or for any life safety concerns with an active weather event please contact your County Emergency Management or Public Safety Office, local National Weather Service forecast office or visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Atlantic Basin Satellite Image
FL Radar as of 6:05am EDT Tuesday
Forecast Rainfall, Next 24 Hours The heavy rainfall threat from Irma has essentially come to an end.
Forecast Rainfall, Next 7 Days The heavy rainfall threat from Irma has essentially come to an end.
A widespread 8-12 has fallen across mos of the Peninsula and Northeast Florida, with isolated totals near 15.
St. Johns River higher than during Matthew Extensive river flooding is ongoing across much of the Florida Peninsula No Flood Action Stage Minor Flood Moderate Flood Major Flood Current / Future Stage Cresting Rising Falling
Jose will meander east of the Bahamas for the next few days as it performs a loop, then it should turn northwest and north this weekend.
Jose is expected to maintain its intensity over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days low...10 percent.
Summary At 11pm EDT Monday, Irma was downgraded to a tropical depression and at 5am EDT Tuesday, was designated as a post-tropical cyclone. NHC has discontinued advisories on the system. At 5am EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Jose was located about 655 miles north of Puerto Rico, or about 700 miles east of Miami. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 mph, which makes Jose a category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Jose is expected to be either a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane over the next few days while it moves very slowly (performing a clock-wise loop) east of the Bahamas. By the end of the week, Jose is expected to begin to move west and then northwest. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and there is only a 10% (low) chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 5 days as it moves north over the central Atlantic.
Florida Outlook All tropical and surge-related warnings in have been discontinued in Florida. Tide levels should be returning to normal levels today along the Florida West Coast and Florida Keys. Elevated water levels will continue along the St. Johns River basin and along the Northeast Florida coast over the next few days, but extensive river flooding will continue across the region for several days to weeks. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the St. Johns and its tributaries, as well as the Trout River, until noon EDT on Thursday. Many west Central Florida rivers are in major flood stage as well, and River Flood Warnings are in effect for these and other rivers in flood stage in the region. It may be several days to weeks before river floodwaters recede. Hurricane Jose does not pose a direct threat to Florida within the next 5 days, but it should be monitored. Above normal tides and ocean swells from Hurricane Jose will keep the rip current risk moderate to high along much of the Florida East Coast. Another briefing packet will be issued Wednesday morning. For more information, visit the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov.
Tropical Update Created by: Amy Godsey, Chief State Meteorologist amy.godsey@em.myflorida.com State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/fldem/subscriber/new?topic_id=sert_met_tropics. Other reports available for subscription are available at https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/fldem/subscriber/new?preferences=true