Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata; Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti; Central Bahamas Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 21.9 north, 70.9 west LOCATION: 30 miles (50 kilometers) north-northeast of Grand Turk Island MOVEMENT: northwest at 7 mph (11 kph) WINDS: 125 mph (205 kph) with gusts to 250 mph (155 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 160 miles (260 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 70 miles (110 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 3 Hurricane 1 st LANDFALL LOCATION: Dominica 1 st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: 9:15 PM local time, September 18 (01:15 UTC, September 19) 1 st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 160 mph (260 kph) Category 5 2 nd LANDFALL LOCATION: Yabucoa, Puerto Rico 2 nd LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: 6:15 AM local time, September 20 (10:15 UTC) 2 nd LANDFALL INTENSITY: 155 mph (250 kph) Category 4 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: LOW Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Maria, located approximately 30 miles (50 kilometers) north-northeast of Grand Turk Island, is currently tracking northwest at 7 mph (11 kph). Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier this morning indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to 959 millibars, accompanied by flight-level winds and surface wind estimates that supported an intensity near 120 mph (195 kph). Since that time, the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The NHC has slightly increased the initial intensity to 125 mph (205 kph) pending the imminent arrival of a new aircraft. Maria is starting to be affected by increasing vertical wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in convective banding in the western semicircle. The forecast models continue to show some wind shear to persist through the forecast period, and as a result, the intensity guidance predicts a gradual weakening trend. In addition, after 48 hours the forecast NHC track takes the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first two days, similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 2
The initial motion is northwest. Maria will be moving between a ridge of high pressure located to the east and a trough over the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the forecast, and the new NHC forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 hours, the guidance becomes a little more divergent. This part of the forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old forecast and the consensus models to account for the Euro (ECMWF) and Canadian forecasts. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. Additional Information WIND: storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic should subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 feet elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos: 8 to 16 inches (isolated 20 inches) Puerto Rico: additional 3 to 6 inches (isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches) Eastern Dominican Republic:additional 4 to 8 inches (isolated storm total amounts 20 inches) Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas: 2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 3
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 4
Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 5
National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 6
Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 7
Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 8
Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov NEXT CAT ALERT: Saturday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 9
* Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH 1 30 35 55 NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep 35 40 65 40 45 75 45 50 85 50 60 95 55 65 100 60 70 110 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic 65 75 120 70 80 130 75 85 140 80 90 150 Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat. 3 85 100 160 90 105 170 95 110 175 100 115 185 105 120 195 110 125 205 Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic 115 130 210 120 140 220 125 145 230 130 150 240 135 155 250 Cat. 4 Major Hurricane 140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Maria 10
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