Modeling strategies within the ACQWA Project Martin Beniston Head of the Geneva Environment Insitute The University of Geneva, Switzerland Waterloo, March 17, 2009
Cryosphere Ecosystems Hydrology
Hydrology Cryosphere Ecosystems Catastrophes Energy
Hydrology Cryosphdre Ecosystems Catastrophes ENVIRONMENT Energy SOCIETY Tourism Agriculture Infrastructure
Modeling strategy: Inputs Climate: observed Climate:GCM+RCM Remote-sensing Storage and distribution Socio-economic
Modeling strategy: Physically-based models Downscaling from GCMs High-resolution RCMs Glacier models Snow models Land-use models Distributed hydrological models Biosphere models Extremes events
Modeling strategy: Impacts Biosphere/forests Aquatic ecosystems Tourism Energy Agriculture Land-use change Assessment of conflicts of interest: implications for governance Adaptation strategies Policy response: influence on impacts? Natural hazards
RCMs
Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 60 km
Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 5 km60 km
Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 5 km60 km 1 km
Simulation of a winter windstorm (December 1999; CRCM2 model) S. Goyette, University of Geneva Goyette et al., 2003: J. Geophys. Res.
Detail of windstorm over southern Sweden m/s S. Goyette, University of Geneva Nilsson et al., 2007: Global and Planetary Change
Extremes
Changes in summer precipitation (june-july-august) (Differences in % between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990) (HIRHAM RCM; A-2 Scenario) Seasonal precipitation Precipitation > 50 mm / day Christensen and Christensen, Nature, 2003-40 -30-20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 % change
Number of evets beyond 99% quantile 1961-1990 Changes in extreme 2071-2100 (B2) 2071-2100 (A2) precipitation in the Alps (HIRHAM RCM) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 108 events 127 events 141 events Beniston, 2006, Geophys. Res. Letters 0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Consequences for floods
Snow
Mean winter precipitation [mm/day] 2071-2080 2081-2090 2091-2100 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps Säntis: Current climate 2071-2080 Arosa: Current climate 2081-2090 Säntis: Future climate 2091-2100 Arosa: Future climate 1-8 -7-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 Mean winter temperatures [ C] Snowpack duration [days] 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Beniston et al., Theor. And Appl. Clim., 2003
Altitude [m] Shifts in snow volume according to altitude 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Current climate, moist winters Current climate, dry winters +4 C, moist +4 C, dry 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Total volume [10 9 m 3 ]
Ice
Simulation of the retreat of the Aletsch Glacier, 1950-2005
Vegetation
Vegetation changes, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA
Hydrology
Modeling strategies for water Distributed catchment response to climate scenarios Subgrid variability of the response of rivers the local/point scales: very detailed modelling of processes that are characterized by significant small scale dynamics and nonetheless have a considerable impact on processes at a larger scales on socio-economic aspects
Hydrological models TOPKAPI model (ETH-Zurich) FEST model (Politecnico di Milano) CHyM model (ICTP, Trieste, and l Aquila, Italy) Model characteristics: raster based (function of DEM availability and catchment scale, approx. range 50 to 500 m grid size) physically based/oriented continuous in time with hourly resolution explicit in the soil/and component internally consistent They produce distributed output scenarios for: snow and ice accumulation/melting interception evaporation/evapotranspiration infiltration/soil moisture/groundwater storage streamflow
Links between partners and Work Packages
www.acqwa.ch Martin.Beniston@unige.ch Waterloo, March 17, 2009