Our Endangered Coastal Ecosystems:

Our Endangered Coastal Ecosystems: an Eco climatic and Risk Analysis using GIS and Remote Sensing SANGA-NGOIE Kazadi and Shoko KOBAYASHI Climate and Ecosystems Dynamics Health, Environment and Life Science Institute Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University e mail: sangank@apu.ac.jp

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area 3. Our role within this Research Group 4. Some cases studies (Mie, Japan) 5. Concluding remarks

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area 3. Our role within this Research Group 4. Some cases studies (Mie, Japan) 5. Concluding remarks

The Coastal Zone and Coastal Ecosystems Modest surface of the globe: 26 millions km2 Sustained Land Ocean Atmosphere interactions Physical, biological and biogeochemical interactions Important role in the global flow of matter and energy

Coastal Ecosystems Estuaries, wetlands, intertidal flats, Mangrove and swamp forests Lagoons, salt ponds, rocks and sand beaches Seagrass, coral reefs, continental shelf

Sustainable land ocean atmospheric flow of matter and energy 1. Biochemical cycle of all land driven material entering the sea 2. Most of geochemical & biological activities in the biosphere 15% of oceanic primary production 80% of organic matter burial 90% of sedimentary mineralization 3. 40% of World ecosystem service value and natural capital 4. Human population (40% within 100 km) and human activities

Ever increasing human population and man made transformations (Cape Town, South Africa) 40% of world population living within 100 km from the ocean coasts Deep changes to the shape, contents and functions of the ecosystem Scenic shoreline cities, ports, resort beaches, land reclamation, etc

Major Coastal Ecosystems in the World Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005).

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area Sea level rise due to Global Warming Floods due to typhoons, storms and tsunamis Land claim, urbanization and coastal development Upland activities involving land cover change A combination of any of these elements 3. Our role within this Research Group 4. Some cases studies (Mie, Japan) 5. Concluding remarks

(IPCC 2007, WG II)

(IPCC 2007, WG I)

(IPCC 2007, WG I)

Vulnerability of Coastal Deltas to Sea level Rise (IPCC 2007, WG II)

Indian Ocean Tsunami and its aftermath Dec 2004: Tsunami devastated the region of Banda Aceh

Climate Change and Extreme Weathers Frequent Typhoons, Severe Storms, Floods and Water Disasters

Impact of flooding in Phnom Penh, Cambodia These images show the extent of flooding and extensive ditches and canals used for irrigation 2000: Taken during the period of flooding 2001: Taken after the flood waters had receded

Water Disaster due to Typhoons and Heavy Rains Floods in the Nagoya Area, September 2000

Replacement of mangroves by aquaculture in Thon Buri, Thailand 1973 1978: Area is caught in the battle between needs of people versus the welfare of the coastal areas 2002: Shows extensive aquaculture ponds (blue patches inland)

Mangrove Forests Destruction for Shrimp Ponds (Samut Songkram, Thailand) Abandoned Shrimp Ponds now used for salt production

Land reclamation changes along Isahaya Bay, Japan 1993: Turning tidal lands into farmlands 2001: The straight line of the sea wall is visible 2003: The area has been fully reclaimed from the sea

Dramatic changes in Huang He Delta, China Images show the mouth of the Yellow River and the emergence of a huge parrot headed peninsula 1979 2000: Huang He s yellow color is the result of huge loads of sediments

Changes in Huang He Delta, China From 1989 to 1995 the Yellow River delta area grew From 1995 to 2000 the Yellow River delta area shrank Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Changes due to construction of Three Gorges Dam, China 1987: Nature of the river and surrounding landscape before the dam 2004: The enormous dam is clearly visible

Land Cover Changes Upland Natural Climatic change and extreme weathers Land development by human activities Heat Waves and Forests Fires, Deforestation Desertification, Drought and Famine

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area 3. Our role within this Research Group GIS (Geographical Information Systems) Remote Sensing Technology and Data Simulation and Prediction scenarios Decision Support Systems: prevention, mitigation, preparedness 4. Some cases studies (Mie, Japan) 5. Concluding remarks

Why GIS and Why Remote Sensing? Remote Sensing: allows to grasp the state of, or the change in, the ecosystem over a broad area within a sequence of temporal scenes (qualitatively) GIS (Geographic Information Systems) makes it possible: to query for features or location of specific state or changes to quantitatively measure the state or changes to simulate and predict changes to create quantitative scenarios for sound Decision Making, based on single or multi criteria analysis

2 1 GIS

What can we do with GIS? Organization ( 組織化 ) Visualization ( 視覚化 ) Spatial Query ( 空間探索 ) Combination ( 結合 ) Analysis ( 解析 ) Prediction ( 予測 ) Decision Support ( 意思決定支援 )

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area 3. Our role within this Research Group 4. Some cases studies using GIS and RS (Mie, Japan) Impacts of sea level rise in Ise Bay Risks assessment using LU/LC map in Tsu City Tsunami Risk assessment in Kii Nagashima Tsunami Risk assessment and population preparedness/awareness in Nishiki 5. Concluding remarks

Global Warming Temperature (T) Sea Surface Level (SSL)

Changes due to Sea Level Rise (Yokkaichi Kuwana Area, Mie) 鉄道 国道 20cm 上昇 1m 上昇

Land Use/ Land Cover Classification (Tsu) Fields Coniferous Mixed Others Wastelands Barren Water City Residence Industry Golf Court Grassy Sparse Mixed JR Railways Highway National Prefectural Roads Local Adm. limits TSU area (LANDSAT, 1987)

Sea level rise Risk Assessment per LU/LC category in Tsu, Mie (between 津市の被害の割合 2010 and 2060) 600 (hectares) ha 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 年 海水域 Water body 海浜 Beach 河川敷 Estuaries 湖沼 池 Wetlands/Mars その他の用地 h 空地 Miscellaneous 幹線交通用地 Non occupied 建物用地 Rails and Roads 荒地 Built up area 森林 Wasteland 畑 Forests 田 Orchards Rice Fields

(a) (b) 2004/09/29 10:00 JST Figure 1

Tokai/Tonankai/Nankai Earthquake Simulation - risk assesssment and preparedness in Mie - Scenario: Magnitude M8.7 earthquake off the Pacific Coast Just after the earthquake, - First wave: about 10 min - Second wave: about 20 min maximum 5m (Kii-Nagashima) maximum 7m (Nishiki) People have about 10 min to leave their homes and run for security to the escape areas.

Tsunami disaster simulation Kii Nagashima, Mie 95% of the Town submerged under a 5m wave Awareness Preparedness Mitigation

Nishiki Village, Mie Devasted by un Tsunami caused by a M7.9 earthquake on 1944.12.7 (20 km off) (Tsunami: 6m high; 447 houses destroyed; 64 dead) Now: population 2,556 (M:1,211; F:1,345)

Location of the 25 Refuge sites in Nishiki No name 津波避難所 標高 避難所構造 避難位置高さ 01 福羅会館 4m 1F 0m 02 錦中学校グランド 6m 屋外 0m 03 錦中学校 5m 3F 8m 04 東町避難所 40m プレハブ 0m 05 谷山会館 10m 1F 0m 06 浅間山避難所 32m 屋外 0m 07 中町避難所 14m プレハブ 0m 08 錦神社 19m 屋外 0m 09 錦漁業協同組合 3m 3F 6m 10 伊勢農協紀勢支店 3m 3F 6m 11 清甫園避難所 20m プレハブ 0m 12 的場防災会館 14m 2F 3m 13 金蔵寺 17m 屋外 0m 14 社会福祉センター 3m 2F 3m 15 老人福祉センター 2m 2F 3m 16 釜土避難所 28m プレハブ 0m 17 浅ヶ谷防災会館 12m 1F 0m 18 ジロハゲ避難所 32m 屋外 0m 19 錦タワー 4m 5F 12m 20 錦小学校 7m 3F 8m 21 錦小学校グランド 6m 屋外 0m 22 錦あおぞら保育園 22m 1F 0m 23 錦みなとホール 28m 1F 0m 24 役場錦支所 32m 3F 8m 25 高岡会館 7m 1F 0m (m)

Vulnerability of the Refuge sites - 11 out the 25 sites will be under waters! -Only a few sites are safely above the wave level (m)

Preparedness, Awareness and Mitigation Strategy Truly safe: 3 sites Relatively Safe: 11 sites Dangerous: 5 sites Not safe : 6 sites People have to instructed to run for safety to the TRULY SAFE SITES in case of Tsumani!

Preparedness, Awareness and Mitigation Strategy - 62.7% of the population live in the high risk area - 68.7% of those who did not run for safety live in the high risk area - 58.3% of those who ran for safety are from the high risk area - 46.0% of people living in the high risk area did not run for safety - Most of those who run went to wrong and unsafe sites!

The most appropriate Site

The shortest distance to the safe site Case 1 Case 2 Start Point Objective Start Point Objective

Contents 1. Introduction: Definition and Role of Coastal Ecosystems 2. Changes, impacts and risks in the Asia Pacific Area 3. Our role within this Research Group 4. Some cases studies using GIS and RS (Mie, Japan) 5. Concluding remarks

Our role: Data integration: spatial observation, numerical (NWP), statistical Decision Support System: risk, mitigation and prevention scenarios for sound Decision Making

Integrated HAZARD MAP of Major Coastal Ecosystems in the Asia Pacific Area Using GIS & RS

The End Thank you very much for your attention! For any contact: e mail: sangank@apu.ac.jp Tel: +81 977 78 1000 Fax: +81 977 78 1043