WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING MIAMI, FLORIDA USA 2 TO 6 NOVEMBER 2015 TCM-8/Doc. 4.2 (4) (30.X.2015) ITEM 4.2 ENGLISH ONLY RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE PORT MORESBY TCWC (Submitted by Papua New Guinea)
Report from Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (2012-2015) Introduction Under Papua New Guinea National Weather Service, Department of Transport, Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (Port Moresby TCWC) has a defined Tropical Cyclone and marine warning zones for which it issues warnings and special bulletins (shaded in blue square). Port Moresby is designated as a TCWC with geographic specialization EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E. The geographical area for which Port Moresby is responsible is not explicitly defined other than a related reference to zones of responsibility, listed by countries in the Annex to Appendix I-5 of the Manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), WMO-No. 485 Volume I. Figure 1: PNG Boarders Australia (south), Indonesia (west) Solomon Islands (east) and Federal States of Micronesia FSM (north) Figure 2: Port Moresby TCWC Area of Responsibility Monitoring role in the tropics The Solomon and Coral Seas are the tropical cyclone prone areas within tropical region of Papua New Guinea. These areas are of high strategic importance since weather systems originating there may have a high impact on the country and its neighbors Australia and Solomon Islands. The tropical cyclones in these regions often receive high coverage in the PNG media. Consequently Port Moresby maintains a very close watch and contact on the activity in the Brisbane TCWC at all times and ensures forecasts and warnings are consistent and always available for dissemination to maritime or Island communities within the cyclone prone areas. This role of maintaining a weather watch over Papua New Guinea has been mandated to National Weather Service of the Department of Transport by the Government of Papua New Guinea. PNG National Weather Service is the sole Government organization and makes available special weather and climate bulletins related to hazardous weather and climate in Papua New Guinea. These warning of Tropical Cyclones, Tsunamis, and drought are disseminated through the media (Radios, TV, and Newspapers). Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 2 of 11
Nino3.4 Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) D E P A R T M E N T O F T R A N S P O R T The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Port Moresby s role is carried out by a section of the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service Forecasting and Warning Centre known as "Port Moresby TCWC" in addition to the nations forecasting responsibilities. For the remainder of this report, "Port Moresby TCWC" will be referred to as "Port Moresby". Mr. Samuel Maiha is the Director of the National Weather Service and the Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning comes under the Forecasting and Warning Services. Annually, from 1 November to 31 May, Port Moresby produces a daily Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin for National Disaster Centre (NDC) to keep them abreast of the latest expectations of cyclone activity in the South Pacific and to help them with their disaster relief planning. Additional advisories are also provided as necessary during the life of a tropical cyclone to fill any information gaps. During this same period, a routine weekly forecaster-to-forecaster conference call is carried out between Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby forecasters to discuss the situation and developments over the next few days. Figure 3: Monthly variation of Tropical Cyclones in Papua New Guinea for period 1993-2014 Figure 4: Seasonal variation of Tropical Cyclones in Papua New Guinea for period 1993-2014 1.4 PNG Mean Monthly Rainfall (1950-2003) correlation = 0.10 300.0 1.2 Nino3.4 PNGRF 280.0 1.0 260.0 0.8 240.0 0.6 220.0 0.4 200.0 0.2 180.0 0.0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan 160.0-0.2 140.0-0.4 120.0-0.6 Month 100.0 Figure 5: Monthly mean winds over Papua New Guinea for period 1950-2003 Figure 6: Monthly mean rainfall over Papua New Guinea for period 1950-2003 Port Moresby also provided forecasting advice to NDC for disastrous earthquakes Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 3 of 11
and Tsunamis. Note from figures 3, 4, 5 and 6, many of the tropical cyclones in a season occur in January and February (figure 3) and this is also during the peak of NW monsoon winds (figure 5) and maximum NW monsoon rainfall occurs one month after the peak of the NW monsoon winds (figures 5 & 6). There is also a strong seasonal variation of Tropical Cyclones depending on the sea surface temperatures and El Nino (figures 4 & 6). On extreme cases, Papua New Guinea has seen Tropical Cyclones form very early in the season as the case of Tropical Cyclone Guba which formed 11 th November 2007 and caused severe damage in Oro, with more than 200 lives lost and very late in the season as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Upia which formed late in May and dissipated in June 2002. Port Moresby TCWC role Port Moresby is responsible for forecasts and warnings on tropical cyclones south of EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E, 25ºS. Each time a system either develops within or enters and is forecasted to remain in our warning zone, the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) is alerted and Port Moresby establishes a close liaison with Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. If a system is forecasted to develop into a Tropical Cyclone and threaten or strike Papua New Guinea within 18 hours, Port Moresby issue a Tropical Cyclone alert, mapping out the likely warning area. Within the likely warning zone Schools and businesses close and people secure habitat and belongings. When the Tropical Cyclone develops and threatens or strike within 6 hours of striking alert Port Moresby issues a Flash Tropical Cyclone Warning and alert population within the affected area to remain confined in sturdy habitat. High Seas forecasts and warnings Port Moresby routinely prepares marine warnings (including tropical cyclones) for the area between EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E every 6 hours. Approximately 100 warnings are issued per month. In these sea areas, Port Moresby strives to maintain consistency with the Australian warnings. The forecasts and warnings are provided to all media (Radio, TV, Newspapers) for broadcast over high frequency (HF) and very high frequency (VHF) radio. Non-meteorological information Port Moresby also relays information received from international sources concerning nuclear incidents (National Weather Service is the National Warning Point under the Emergency Notification and Assistance Conventions as facilitated by the International Atomic Energy Agency and liaises closely with the National Disaster Centre and the Ministry of Health) and recently added responsibility of Tsunami Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 4 of 11
warning for Papua New Guinea. D E P A R T M E N T O F T R A N S P O R T 2012/ 2013 Tropical Cyclone Season The 2012/ 2013 Tropical Cyclone season, little activity was recorded within Port Moresby warning area. Nevertheless, few tropical cyclones were recorded overall in the SW Pacific. No systems were recorded or occurred within Papua New Guinea. Several Gale warnings were issued during the dry season, months of June and July. 2013/ 2014 Tropical Cyclone Season The 2013/ 2014 season had neutral conditions. Tropical Cyclone activity was well distributed across the Pacific. Tropical Cyclone Ita was first identified over the Solomon Islands as a tropical low on 1 April 2014, and gradually moved westward, eventually reaching cyclone intensity on 5 April and was named by Brisbane TCWC. On 10 April 2014, Ita intensified rapidly into a powerful Category 5 system on the Australian Scale, but it weakened to a Category 4 system in the hours immediately preceding landfall the following day. On April 5 th at 4pm, Port Moresby TCWC issued a Tropical Cyclone advice and issued the TC warning at 6pm. The stronger gales developed on the southern sector, Port Moresby initiated a Gale and High Seas (Marine) Warning on the 5 th April and maintained it until the 11 th of April when it was well south of Papua New Guinea (Figure 7). The usual forecaster to forecaster telephone discussions were maintained between the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby TCWC regarding meteorological parameters surrounding the tropical cyclone. Name Maximum development Period Ita Category 5 05-14 April 2014 Natan Category 3 21-26 March 2015 Tropical Cyclone Ita caused gale force winds and high seas on the western Milne Bay Islands. The topical cyclone advisory was issued three days in advance and people had taken necessary steps to protect properties and lives with their Provincial Disaster Officer. No casualties reported only damages to food gardens and houses. A population of 54, 414 was affected with total damages worth approximately USD $10 million. The National Disaster Centre, PNG National Weather Service and the Defence Force did a joint Tropical Cyclone damage assessment for the southern chain of Islands of Milne Bay from the 16-20 th April 2014 (Figure 8). 2014/ 2015 Tropical Cyclone Season The 2014/ 2015 season again had neutral conditions. Tropical Cyclone activity was Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 5 of 11
well distributed across the Pacific. D E P A R T M E N T O F T R A N S P O R T Tropical Cyclone Nathan formed in the Coral Sea on 21 March 2015 and reached category 3 (Figure 9). A favourable upper pattern resulted in the rapid development of a low embedded in the monsoon trough. The combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea (Figure 9). The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several million dollars in the West New Britain Province. Again Several Gale warnings were issued during the dry season, months of June and July. Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 6 of 11
Figure 7: Total Rainfall and Track of TC Ita D E P A R T M E N T O F T R A N S P O R T Figure 8: Combined National Disaster, National Weather Service and Defence Force Assessment Team Figure 9: Photo of Tropical Cyclone Ita Damage, Houses Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 7 of 11
Figure 10: Combined Tropical Cyclone Damage, Food Gardens Figure 11: Image of Typhoon Bavi, TC Olywn, TC Nathan and TC Pam (Partial) summary of cyclone season 2015-2016 The 2015/ 2016 season started with a well advanced El Nino conditions. Tropical Cyclone activity had been slightly shifted east ward towards the centre of the Pacific. The El Nino conditions may prevail throughout the season and decay in June 2016. Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 8 of 11
Forecasting systems In SMARTMET, a State of Art Forecasting System donated by Finland Meteorological Institute, Government of Finland became operational in November 2014. The ICT section is developing web products now. A new, WMO Himari-8 Satellite Receiving system for managing and viewing satellite imagery data is planned to be installed 9-13 November 2015. Observation systems Port Moresby GUAN station has been restored recently by the joint effort of the WMO, US, Australia and New Zealand, however, lack of funding consumables continues to hamper its operations. Under the World Bank funding administered by SOPAC, two (2) AWSs have been purchased and installed in Port Moresby and Goroka and became operational in August 2015. Training & research Importantly, PNG National Weather Service is primarily focused on operational forecasting, and the research and development work undertaken is focused in the area of improving tools, knowledge and skills of forecasters, and the quality and efficiency of the output. Some modeling has been attempted but with difficulties due to limited resources and computing power. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been developed, but verification work is going on and one of the officer has been awarded EU Scholarship to further Evaluate and Verify Tropical Cyclone Ita forecasts using WRF or HWRF (figures 10, 11 & 12). In 2012-2015 PNGNWS participated in the number of training and these include; Pacific Desk, Hawaii, USA, JICA Training in Nadi, Fiji, Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Workshop, Melbourne Australia, WMO Class I training in Malaysia, Asia/ Oceania Satellite Users Conference, Tokyo, Japan. Assistance Needed Despite its efforts to improve, PNG National Weather Service and Port Moresby is in need of operational tropical cyclone forecasters, research meteorologist. The recent resignations of two officers, one Meteorologists and one tropical cyclone forecasters has left a huge gap in the area of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Tracking TC ITA WRF Model Outputs Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 9 of 11
Figure 10: WRF TC ITA Rainfall Tendency and Echo Model Output Figure 11: WRF TC ITA 500hPa Winds and Skew-T Model Output Recommendations 1. Continue Recruitment & Training of Operational Forecasters, research meteorologist; 2. Training in the use of Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Tracking TC Module Software to improve the quality and efficiency of its Tropical Cyclone warning system and products. Port Moresby TCWC does not have specialized Tropical Cyclone Tracking Software (TC Module, Synergy, etc.) 3. Require Storm Surge Forecasting Training; 4. Continue to require Tropical Cyclone Training. 5. Require Access and Training in use of EC EPSgrams, Ensemble and Deterministic/ Probability Forecasts. 6. Case Studies, Evaluation of Past Tropical Cyclones Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 10 of 11
Summary On the average Papua New Guinea receives one (1) Tropical Cyclone a year, however the number varies seasonally. Some seasons has seen two (2) or three cyclones formed whilst others have literally none. Many of these Tropical Cyclones have formed in February during the peaking of NW winds over Papua New Guinea and the NW monsoon rains peak one month after the peak of the NW winds (see full report). The SE monsoon (SE Trades) peak in July and the dry season peaks two months after, in September. The 2012/2013 season was quiet for Papua New Guinea. In 2013/2014 season TC Ita formed in the Solon Islands waters and tracked south of Papua New Guinea affecting the southern chain of Islands in Milne Bay Province. No casualties reported only damages to food gardens and houses. A population of 54, 414 wwas affected with total damages worth approximately USD $10 million. During the peak of the SE Trade winds, several Gale warnings were issued and caused waves surges land inundations in Western and Gulf Provinces. These wave surges were further enhanced by spring/ king tides. In 2012-2015 number of installations took place; the SMARTMET Forecasting system November 2014, two (2) AWS installed in Port Moresby and Goroka. Under the Recurrent Budget Funding, Internet link was upgraded to 1mbps. Future Projects: Under WMO administered by JMA, Himawari 8 Satellite Receiving system is planned to be installed in November 2015. Early Warning Dissemination System is planned to be Early 2016. Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga October 29 2015 Page 11 of 11