Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions Stream flow-groundwater-soil moisture Snowpack Conditions --- Ice Jams Antecedent Current Future precipitation forecasts Short and Medium Range Met Forecasts (significant events) Flood or Drought Outlook (Near term & Longer term) State of ENSO Seasonal Teleconnections
Main Features Outlook: Below Normal Temps Active Pattern Colder than Normal Late March into mid-april Normal or drier than normal the last 2 weeks Normal to above normal snowfall NAO and AO trend more towards neutral Weak La Nina to Neutral ENSO Active Pacific Jet Normal to above normal precipitation expected Much of the ice is out except northern NH/ME Event 16/17 looks like significant QPF.with PTYPE issues northern Basins Teleconnections watching the NAO Negative phase and any blocking
90-day Precipitation 90-day Precipitation Normal to Above Normal but Eastern NY into Central New England some below normal
30-Day (NERCC) Temperature Departures Precipitation % Temperature Departures Last 30 Days Many below normal locations Cold Precipitation -- % of Normal Last 30 Days Mainly below normal Dry
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) March 31st (left) vs April 13 th (right) Current
Snow States April 13th 6
USGS Streamflow Conditions Daily Average Streamflow
USGS Groundwater Conditions
Soil Moisture Current Conditions Departures and Percentiles
Water Supply/Lake Levels Near and Above Normal MAINE Reservoirs Rangley -- Normal Mooselookmeguntic -- >Normal Richardson -- Normal Aziscohos Errol..Normal Flagstaff - > Normal Moosehead NORMAL Brassau - > Normal
Precipitation Forecast 2-Day and 7-Day
NERFC 72-Hr River Forecast Minor Riverine Flooding Forecast
Short-range Ensemble River Forecasts http://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast - HEFS
Teleconnections Affect Precip/Temp Can Have Implications on River Flow El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki El Nino (EMI) Nino 3.4 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Pacific North American Index (PNA) SST Anomalies (SSTA) Pacific/Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Stratospheric Trends and Temp Anomalies Solar Trends geomagnetic activity, solar flux, sunspots Pattern Persistence Analog Years 15
Teleconnection Patterns AO--NAO--PNA
MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecast for Phases 2 and 3 MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average.
CPC Outlooks 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 6 to 10 day outlooks 8 to 14 day outlooks
Closed system to SW April 16th
Surface Prognosis Late April Several Storms 4/23 and 4/27
ENSO Conditions Weak La Nina to Neutral (La Nada)
NERFC Winter Outlook April 13th Flood Potential -- Valid until April 26th A N A N
Northeast River Forecast Center s Next Outlook: Friday April 27 th 2018 Ed Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center