Active Winter Weather Pattern February 4th-9th Prepared 1230 PM EST Tuesday, February 4, 2014 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Purpose of Briefing Briefing #6 Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners Provide guidance for planning efforts Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area shaded in green on map
Changes from previous briefing Significantly greater risk of high impact icing event due to freezing rain. Travel difficulties extremely likely, impacts to infrastructure due to ice on tree limbs & power lines now a possibility.
Executive Summary A new storm system will affect the region tonight into Wednesday and bring a wide variety of winter weather (rain, icing due to freezing rain, snow). The primary threat is a widespread icing event. Many locations will see over one tenth inch ice accumulation. Some locations will see ice accumulation around one quarter inch. There is a slight probability of icing amount over one-half inch, which would cause major problems due to ice accumulation on tree limbs & power lines. Snowfall amounts of 6+ inches are possible as well, in northern sections of the region. There is another potential winter storm this coming weekend. More details will become available in future briefing packages. Because of the potential for a major icing event, the next briefing package will be issued later today, by 600 PM Tuesday February 4 th. Monitor our website for updated information, including new snow total and ice total maps. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Icing Forecast Current ice accumulation forecast due to freezing rain. Any amount of freezing rain can cause slippery roadways & sidewalks, resulting in difficult travel conditions. Amounts over 0.25 start to cause concerns about damage to tree limbs & power lines due to the weight of the ice. See the next slide for potential worst case scenario for a major ice storm.
Icing How bad could it get? Answer VERY BAD! Reasonable worst case scenario says amounts could go over 0.75 ice accumulations, which would produce major tree limb & power line damage. Light blue = 0.75 + Darker blue = 0.50 to 0.75 Darker green = 0.25 to 0.50
Snowfall forecast for upcoming storm Snowfall potential increases as you go north. 6+ inches are possible in northern NJ, as well as in the Poconos. Little or no snow in southern portions of the area & closer to the Atlantic Coast.
Current warning/advisory status Winter storm warnings in pink Advisories in purple & blue. This is a high impact event affecting a broad area.
Other impacts from the midweek storm Tuesday night-wednesday Where the precipitation is mainly rain, roughly one inch of rain is possible. Though not terribly high, combined with snowmelt, there is a slight risk of river flooding. Also, for those rivers which are ice-clogged, these rainfall amounts may cause ice jam development & flooding. This is not a storm track which would produce coastal flooding. Coastal flooding threat is very low for this event.
Final thoughts Remember, respect the snow, fear the ice. As a reminder, another briefing package will be issued by 600 PM today, Tuesday February 4 th.
Questions? For the latest information, visit our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi Our latest briefing package is available from our website at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf If you wish to be notified when a briefing package is issued, you can follow us on social media where we post the notice. You can friend us on Facebook at: US Philadelphia/Mount Holly You can follow us on Twitter @NWS_MountHolly If you have any questions, please contact us. Gary.Szatkowski@noaa.gov Office 609-261-6602 x222 Joseph.Miketta@noaa.gov Office 609-261-6602 x223