Significant Coastal Storm Today through Thursday, 11/7-8 Weather Briefing Prepared 10:00 am EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Presented by Gary Conte, Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA s National Weather Service New York, NY Office
Purpose of Briefing Promote Situational Awareness Provide Guidance for Planning Briefing Applies to Area Shaded in Blue
Executive Summary WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR Moderate Coastal Flooding (11 AM Wed 6 AM Thu) - 2.5 to 5.0 Foot Surge Likely Wed and Wed Night s High Tides Western LI Sound and South Shore Bays; Less Elsewhere High Winds (1 PM Wed 4 AM Thu) - Coastal Areas: 25-40 Gusts 45-60; Peak 70 MPH (WARNING) - Inland Areas: 20-25 Gusts 35-50; Peak 60 MPH (ADVISORY) 3
Executive Summary WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 2-4 Inches of Snow 4
Executive Summary Heavy Rain ½ - 1 Inch 5
Weather Map Wednesday, 11/7 at 7 AM 6
Weather Map PEAK of STORM Wednesday, 11/7 at 7 PM 7
Weather Map Thursday, 11/8 at 2 AM 8
Weather Map Thursday, 11/8 at 7 AM 9
Weather Map Thursday, 11/8 at 7 PM 10
Forecast Confidence High Winds: HIGH Storm Surge: MODERATE Snow: LOW to MODERATE 11
Snow Forecast Challenging Precipitation TYPE (Snow Vs. Rain) Forecast UNCERTAINTY in Where Narrow Bands of Heavy Snow Develops Surface Temperatures will be Critical in rates of Accumulation with Highest Amounts Above 500 feet 12
Snow Forecast WORST CASE SCENARIO 4 to 8 inches of Wet Snow From Western Passaic Northeast Across Orange, Putnam, and Northern Fairfield County 1 to 3 inches of Wet Snow Across the METRO NYC/NJ Area 13
Timing the Impacts Middletown, NY 14
Timing the Impacts JFK Airport 15
Timing the Impacts Groton, CT 16
Coastal Flooding Prepare for Moderate Flooding NEXT 2 High Tide Cycles Affected - Wednesday Afternoon through Evening - Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning 17
Coastal Flooding Prepare for Moderate Flooding This Afternoon through Evening - Moderate NY Harbor 3.25-3.75 ft Surge South Shore Bays / SI 3.5-4.25 ft Surge High Tide Time Between 1pm and 2pm W LI Sound 4.5-5 ft surge in W. LI Sound High Tide Time Between 4pm and 5pm Tonight through early Thu Morning Minor to Moderate NY Harbor 2.5-3.0 ft Surge South Shore Bays / SI 3.0-3.5 ft Surge High Tide Time Between 2am and 3am W LI Sound - 3.25-3.75 highest in W. LI Sound High Tide Time Between 5am and 6am 18
Sandy Hook 3-4 Foot Surge Look at the Brown Line for Surge 19
Battery Around 3 Foot Surge Look at the Brown Line for Surge 20
Kings Point 3-5 Foot Surge Forecast Look at the Brown Line for Surge 21
Bridgeport 4-5 Foot Surge 22
Coastal Flooding Lowest in NY Harbor Highest Western Sound and South Shore Bays, Including Coastal CT MORE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LACK OF DUNES AND NEW INLETS CREATED BY SANDY 23
Temperatures/Wind Chills Today Mid 30s/ Mid 20s Tonight Mid 30s / Mid 20s Thu Lower 40s / Mid 30s Temperatures Thu Night Upper 30s / Upper 20s Fri Lower 50s / Mid 40s Fri Night Lower 40s / Upper 30s 24
MAIN IMPACTS ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST THREAT TO ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING COAST LINES AND NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF WESTERN LI SOUND HIGH WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW WILL BRING DOWN MORE TREE LIMBS AND TREES CAUSING ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD IMPACT EVENING RUSH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME SLUSHY ROADS. COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT 25
Future Updates This is the LAST Webinar Scheduled for this Storm CHECK YOUR EMAIL daily for briefing updates 26
Contact Information National Weather Service New York, NY - http://www.weather.gov/nyc gary.conte@noaa.gov 27