Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model

Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model September 05, 2018 Marco Bell, Merced Irrigation District Bibek Joshi, Dewberry

Objective Introduce HEC-RTS Benefits of MIDH2O 2 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

MIDH2O Origins 2015 USBR WaterSMART Drought Resiliency Project Grant MIDH2O is the Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations Model MIDH2O is a tool to assist MID in the management of the Merced River flows, operation of New Exchequer Dam and regulate MID irrigation diversions. MIDH2O can serve as a decision support tool for power generation and help link water and power operations to the hydro power market. Based on HEC-RTS 3 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Merced Irrigation District Established in 1919 * Store and distribute water for irrigation Total irrigable lands in MID: 138,000 acres 825 miles of water distribution facilities (earth lined, concrete lined channels and pipes) Also provides water for domestic uses, provide flood control, hydroelectric power generation, and recreation Provides water to approximately 2,200 farmers in Merced County and affordable electricity to 7,500 residences and business Owns and operates New Exchequer and McSwain Dams, reservoirs and hydroelectric facilities * http://www.mercedid.com/index.cfm/about/history of the district/ 4 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Merced Irrigation District 5 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Merced River Watershed Tributary of San Joaquin River Drainage Area: 1,267 square miles (1,037 square miles at New Exchequer Dam) Elevation Range: 52 13,090 ft (535 square miles above 5,000 feet) Upper watershed in Yosemite National Park 6 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-RTS Publicly available software from HEC Software system supporting data acquisition, visualization, and shortterm forecast modeling Interface to receive and process realtime and forecast meteorological data Link multiple models in a sequence for real-time simulation of hydrology, reservoir operation, river hydraulics, and flood impact analysis 7 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-RTS Supports standard HEC models and can be extended to support other models and data processing tasks Provides access to native model interfaces for data editing and display Deployed to over 35 USACE district and division offices * UASCE version: Corps Water Management System (CWMS) CWMS is server based and uses Oracle Database. HEC-RTS is PC based and uses HEC-DSS. Supplemental Program Meteorological Data MFP HMS ResSim RAS Flow Flow * http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/cwms/cwms.aspx Custom Report Generator 8 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Why HEC-RTS? Familiarity with HEC models Has an interface to receive and process real-time and forecast meteorological data Discrete models developed outside and then linked together in RTS Provides a platform to integrate different models Rainfall-runoff model to predict peak discharge (HEC- HMS) Reservoir operation model to evaluate reservoir releases (HEC-ResSim) Riverine hydraulics model to predict river stages (HEC- RAS) 9 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-RTS GUI 10 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Data Acquisition and Data Visualization Modules Source: Chan Modini, USACE HEC, Real Time Flow/Stage Forecasting, Inundation Mapping and Decision Support For the Russian River Basin with CWMS 3.0 / HEC RTS 3.0, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 11 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Data Acquisition and Data Visualization Modules Source: Chan Modini, USACE HEC, Real Time Flow/Stage Forecasting, Inundation Mapping and Decision Support For the Russian River Basin with CWMS 3.0 / HEC RTS 3.0, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 12 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-RTS GUI 13 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

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Project Overview To provide a Real Time Decision Support System for the Merced Irrigation District Water budget Snow Accumulation, Snow Melt, Rainfall Runoff into Lake McClure Irrigation Deliveries to the Turnouts Flood Forecasting for the Merced Streams Group Power Generation Scheduling 15 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

MIDH2O Features Fully automated MIDH2O system Data retrieval and QAQC Generate Forecast Post Results Generate custom report Each forecast run has a three week simulation period two weeks of lookback and 1 week of forecast Forecast simulation run at 6 o clock and 12 o clock PST HEC-HMS includes snowmelt modeling Integrated with MID s WISKI database Scripts written to update initial soil moisture deficit values and transfer initial snowmelt grids 16 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Meteorological Model Uncoupled Surface Layer (USL) model runs a NWP model that focuses entirely on near surface conditions Terrain elevation ranges from 52 to 13,090 ft Orographic effect, mountain shadow, temperature in north vs south facing slopes High resolution (500 meter) hourly gridded precipitation and temperature grids Accurate land surface properties and realistic near surface physics GFS NAM HRRR NDFD SREF Gridded MOS GDPS HIRESW (WRF) Observations Land surface data Tuning params Downscaling & Bias Correction Pre-processor Weighted Ensemble USL Hi-res Terrain data Clouds Precipitation etc. Temperature Humidity Wind (0-100m AGL) Source: CustomWeather Forecasting Merced Irrigation District: The High Resolution Uncoupled Surface Layer (USL) Model, MIDH2O Symposium, September 2017 17 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Precipitation Runoff Model Computes streamflow throughout the Merced River watershed based on observed and forecast precipitation and temperature and watershed runoff characteristics Includes snowmelt computations Event-oriented model run continuously 18 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-HMS Components Loss -> Deficit and Constant Canopy -> Simple Canopy Evapotranspiration -> Monthly Average Moisture deficit can recover Transform -> ModClark Routing -> Modified Puls and Muskingum-Cunge Baseflow -> Recession 19 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Uncertainty in Real-Time Forecasting Inaccuracy in forecast precipitation and temperature Is precipitation falling as rain or snow? HEC-HMS uses one PX Temperature Initial conditions Soil moisture SWE Need professional judgment 20 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

MIDH2O January 9, 2017 Event Forecast 30,000 MIDH2O Forecast: Merced River at Pohono Bridge January 9, 2017 Storm 2017.01.04 0400 2017.01.04 1000 2017.01.05 0400 2017.01.05 1000 2017.01.06 1000 2017.01.07 1000 2017.01.08 1000 2017.01.09 1000 OBSERVED 25,000 20,000 Flow (cfs) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 03 Jan 17, 10:00 04 Jan 17, 10:00 05 Jan 17, 10:00 06 Jan 17, 10:00 07 Jan 17, 10:00 08 Jan 17, 10:00 09 Jan 17, 10:00 10 Jan 17, 10:00 21 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

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HEC-ResSim Overview To model operations at reservoirs using different set of operational rules and constraints Uses reservoir inflow and downstream local flows computed by HEC-HMS Reservoir operation for Lake McClure, Lake McSwain, and Merced Falls Forebay to water delivery and power generation Determine releases using operation sets and prescribed release schedules Use mass-balance to determine pool elevation and storage for reservoirs 23 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

HEC-RAS for MID Unsteady-state hydraulic model of Merced River from the Exchequer Dam to San Joaquin River New model development between Exchequer Dam and Cressey Existing DWR s model of Merced River between Cressey and San Joaquin River Uses reservoir releases from HEC-ResSim and local inflows from HEC-HMS Calibrate to available high water marks and gage record Water quality modeling Sediment transport modeling 24 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Custom Report 29 page report Past, current, and estimated future conditions Precipitation and snowpack Reservoir status Diversion demand Forecasted flow at key downstream locations Appendix includes: Current NWS San Joaquin Valley Report 5-station precipitation index, California snow water content (from CA DWR) Merced Watershed Report Historical SWE time series for Ostrander and Tenaya Lakes Lake McClure current conditions and precipitation 25 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

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Real-time and Planning Models Real-time Flood and Conditional Space Operations Downstream Flow Requirements Demand and Power Management Hourly Time Forecast for One Week Planning Snow Water Equivalent Analyses April to July Snowmelt Flow Volume Forecast Habitat Restoration Fish Pulse Flows 27 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

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Additional MIDH2O Benefits HEC HMS Climate Change Impact Analysis Surface water Ground water coupled model HEC ResSim Power Generation and Scheduling HEC RAS October Pulse Flows Update gage rating table Merced River Water quality and temperature modeling 29 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Conclusion Phase 1 went live on October 2016 From day 1, significant benefits realized over legacy forecast methods Improved lead time and flexibility in forecasts and operational alternatives Residual benefits to other district operations through optimization, increased efficiency and increased collaboration 30 MIDH2O September 05, 2018

Merced Irrigation District Hydrologic and Hydraulic Operations (MIDH2O) Model Marco Bell Merced Irrigation District mbell@mercedid.org 209 354 2857 Ted Cassidy Dewberry tcassidy@dewberry.com 916 380 3774 Bibek Joshi Dewberry bjoshi@dewberry.com 916 380 3772