CLIMATE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCING CLIMATE RESILIENCY FOR MANITOBA INFRASTRUCTURE Heather Auld, Neil Comer, Simon Eng, Erik Sparling
Manitoba: Climate Impacts on Infrastructure - OUTLINE of TALK Climate and infrastructure events in Manitoba Trends in Climate Manitoba Latest climate change science Climate change projections for Manitoba Climate adaptation options and priorities July, 2011 2
Manitoba s Climate and Weather Events Headlines: Floods June Spring, 30, 1950 1997 2011 2009 2014 Brandon Assiniboine Red Ste Adolphe Agathe River A R 3
Manitoba s Recent Climate and Weather Headlines: Droughts Some of Canada s most severe drought events Prairies $6 billion GDP 41,000 jobs. 4
Hot and Cold: Winter 2014 and the Return of the Polar Vortex Globally, 2014 was warmest year since 1880 Globally, 8 th warmest winter, BUT Winter, 2014 Winnipeg s coldest Dec. & 3 rd coldest winter (1880s) Polar Vortex slumped southward perhaps linked to decreasing Arctic ice, regionally weakening jet stream More variability in future? Global Temperature Anomalies 5
Manitoba Weather: At least you don t get Hurricanes 6
But, Tornadoes Prairie tornadoes 1970-2009 Canada tornadoes 1980-2009 7
Manitoba s Recent Climate and Weather Headlines: Other Severe Weather Sample of Manitoba s celebrity severe weather events Weather bomb, Oct, 2010: Gimli Harbour Overland flooding, waves on Lake Winnipeg Ely, Ma, 2007 Canada s first F5 tornado 8
National Building Code: Defining Regions for Life-saving Tornado risk reduction measures 9
Observed Climate Trends and Risks for Manitoba Winter 2013-14 VARIABILITY? Winter, 2012 (Jan) 10
Temperatures are/will continue rising Near Mid-Century Future Future 2020s Average 2050s Average Annual Temperature Annual Temperature Present Past (AR5-RCP8.5) 1951-1980 1981-2010 Average Average Annual Annual Temperature 0 4 0 4 0 0-6 -6 4 4 86 11
Total Precipitation will increase regionally Near Past Present Future 1951-1980 1981-2010 2020s Average Annual Precipitation (mm) (mm) Mid-Century Future 2050s Average Annual Precipitation (mm) 550 400 4005500 400 400 500 500 driest driest 450 450 500 600 600 650 650 650 650 12
1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Trends in Extremes always more challenging to detect (in Canada) 8 Winnipeg A - Days/Yr (May-Sep) Precip>= 25mm 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Antecedent rainfall conditions probably most important climate event analyses required 13
Trends in Freezing Precipitation (1953-2004) Note: Analysis only to 2004 Oct, 2012 14
Climate Thresholds & Impacts Vary with the Infrastructure Structures Ice & Snow Loads Roads, Bridges Road safety, Flooding risks, Operations. Deterioration Stormwater & Wastewater Electrical power distribution structures Buildings (including airports) Risk of failure Extreme Rainfall (+ snowmelt) FAILURE RISKS drainage & erosion Extreme Winds Failure risks for signs, some bridge components Power failures FAILURE RISKS Power failures FAILURE RISKS FAILURE RISKS Underground, Vaults, Towers if widespread flooding Flooding; failure risk FAILURE RISKS FAILURES Risks to infrastructure services 15
Number of Claims/day Small Changes in Climate do/will Matter Southern Ontario Municipality Insurance Claims from Severe Wind Events (housing & buildings) Threshold gust Peak wind gusts Study currently in publication 16
Climate Information for Infrastructure Decision- Making 2012: IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX) 2013-14: IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Science, Adaptation, Mitigation 95% certainty warming is due to climate change Unequivocal warming Irreversible Stronger language than other reports conservative scientists 17
Changes to the most recent IPCC Climate Change Models (AR5) - released 2013-14 All models are wrong, but some are useful IPCC 1995 11 GCMs IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007 14 GCMs 24 GCMs IPCC 2013 40 GCMs! 18
IPCC AR5 GHG Gas Assumptions: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Standard use (AR5) Not often used (AR4) From Nature Climate Change, April, 2012 (www.nature.com/natureclimatechange RCPs are purely energy increases how we reach them could be through many different routes (with no linked socioeconomic or technology assumptions) 19
Future climate change will be very GHG emission dependent Representative concentration pathways (GHGs) 20
Uncertainty in climate change model outputs varies Most Confident More CERTAINTY Least / Less Confident Less CERTAINTY Longer growing season Warmer winters More heat waves More winter precipitation More intense rainfall More severe ice storms Increase in wind extremes July, 2013 Credits: James Thew-Fotolia 21
Climate Change Model Projections are NOT the same as Weather Predictions IPCC recommends use of ensembles to reduce uncertainties An analogy to the resolution and skill of a good climate model merging of Santa pictures Composite image composed of 100 photos of Santa Claus with a child on knee. Source: J. Salavon 22
Manitoba s Future Climate: Latest IPCC AR5 Projections (2013-14) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Winnipeg - Mean Annual Temperature Projection (AR5 Ensemble) ANNUAL +1.5 +3. +5. 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s RCP4.5 RCP8.5 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Winnipeg - Mean Spring Temperature Projection (AR5 Ensemble) SPRING 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s +5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Up to 5-6 C warming in Summer & Fall by 2080s 23
Northern Manitoba Trends: Transportation Implications of Warming Seasons Warming winters shorter and more unreliable winter roads New winter road technologies buy some time in colder climates Pressure for construction of all-season roads (other challenges in permafrost thawing regions) Manitoba: 2178 km, service 30 communities expensive alternatives March, 2010 rapid warming; early close created emergencies 2009-2010 late start, early close to winter 24 roads
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Manitoba s Future Climate: Latest IPCC AR5 Projections (2013-14) of Precipitation Winnipeg - Mean Winter Precipitation Projection (AR5 Ensemble) Winter +6% +13% +16% RCP4.5 RCP8.5 300 250 200 150 100 50 Winnipeg - Mean Summer Precipitation Projection (AR5 Ensemble) Summer 0 % -1 % -2 % 0 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s 0 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s 160 140 120 100 80 60 Winnipeg - Mean Spring Precipitation Projection (AR5 Ensemble) Spring +6% +13% +19% RCP4.5 RCP8.5 610 600 590 580 570 560 Winnipeg - Mean Annual Precipitation Projection (AR5 Ensemble) +8% Annual +6% +3% 40 550 20 0 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s 540 530 520 25 1981-2010 2020s 2050s 2080s
2050s: % Change in Summer Precipitation (compared to 1981-2010 baseline) 40 IPCC AR5 GCMs Summer 4% 0% -2% 26
2050s: % Change in Winter Precipitation (compared to 1981-2010 baseline) 40 IPCC AR5 GCMs Winter Snow? Rain on snow? Note that scale is different from summer precipitation 25% 15% 27
Variability? Increasing Drought Intensities? Potential for deeper and longer drought events when they occur Longer summers, less summer rainfall, warmer temperatures, drier soils? Reduced Rockies snowmelt on average Greater variability, stalled weather patterns Spring to summer, 2011 Spring, 2011 Aug, 2011 29
Projected increases in Frequencies of Daily Max Wind Gusts > 90kph (average/year) for 2050s Gusts > 90kph: > 80-110% CAUTION: VARIABLE QUALITY IN BASELINE WIND DATA Downscaling from 8 AR4 GCMs ~ 20-30% > 50% ~30% From Cheng et al, 2014: J. Climate 27: 1255-1270
Potential acceleration of Premature Weathering of infrastructure materials Sensitive to freeze-thaw cycles, UV levels, increasing temperatures & CO 2, indoor humidities Concrete likely sensitive to deterioration from increasing CO2 (e.g. Australia, 400% increase carbonization by 2100) May require changed materials, reinforcement, more maintenance, changed standards, etc. Picture courtesy Stantec 31
Climate Change is here to stay 32
Adaptation Options: Consider planned lifespan, rate of CC, uncertainties, risks... Existing Climate Future Climate Distant Climate Years from today 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 33
Range of Climate Adaptation Options Do nothing Strengthen existing & new (e.g. safety factors; return periods; retrofits) Current Climate Monitor; Improve science With Changing Climate Low regrets (e.g. good climate values, disaster planning, maintenance) Manage vulnerabilities (e.g. PIEVC risk assessment) New approaches (e.g. deep water cool) DESIGN (new structures?) OPERATIONS (existing/new) 34 Safety Factors; Stage; Flexible Include future climate (PIEVC) Improve (Repair & retrofit; maintenance) Financial (insurance; Mun. reserves) 34
Forensic climate-infrastructure analyses: Learning from past failures and events Collection, analyses of climaterelated infrastructure failures Helpful in identifying climate breaking point thresholds Useful for PIEVC infrastructure assessments Can include classes/types of infrastructure and their climate failure interactions Guidance for future codes, standards, practices- require forensic & scientific evidence for changes 35
Adaptation Actions Consider Infrastructure Lifecycle Timeframes Structures Houses/Buildings Sewer Dams/Water Supply Roads and Bridges Expected Lifecycle Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrs Demolition 50-100 yrs Major upgrade 50 yr Refurbishment 20-30 yrs Reconstruction 50 yrs Tailings ponds - forever Maintenance annually Reconstruction??? yrs 36 36
Thank you! For further information, contact: Heather Auld or Erik Sparling or Neil Comer Risk Sciences International hauld@risksciences.com 37