Continuity in the Face of Hurricanes: What Every Business Needs To Know Cameron Self, Tropical Meteorologist. StormGeo
A Hurricane is a Big Heat Engine Forming over warm tropical waters, wind speeds range from 74 to >200 mph Spiral bands of squalls & high winds flow in toward the center of the hurricane
Generally, hurricanes like water temperatures of 80F (27C) or warmer Warm Water
Hurricanes thrive in a low wind shear environment
Hurricane season is from June 1 November 30 Prime season is from mid August to mid October
June hurricanes form farther west in the basin
July Hurricanes begin forming farther to the east
June/July Quiet East of Islands Due to Dry Air
August hurricanes form just about anywhere
September hurricanes do form anywhere in basin
October hurricanes track northeastward
Florida Hurricane landfalls often occur in October October South Florida Hurricanes (1851-2015)
November hurricanes form in central Caribbean & SW Atlantic
Annually, Hurricanes are most common off East U.S. Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico
Looking at strike density, hurricanes are most common in south FL, followed closely by mid Gulf coast, SE TX and NC Outer Banks
Looking at strike density, major hurricanes are most common on the south Florida Peninsula, next is southeast Louisiana
Hurricane Wilma (Oct. 2005) last Category 3 or greater hurricane to strike the U.S.
This is the longest gap ever recorded in major U.S. hurricane landfalls since 1851 5 yrs 5 yrs 10.6 yrs 2005 1893 1926 1964 2004
7 seasons into the current decade, the numbers are well below normal in the Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes Per Decade in the Gulf of Mexico (1900-2015)
The Atlantic Basin goes through warm (active) and cool (less active) cycles over a period of decades
Hurricane Activity Cold vs Warm Phase Figures from Goldenberg et al. (2001) Phil Klotzbach/NOAA
A Hurricane s Impacts
It doesn t need to be strong to pack a punch! Tropical Storm Winds
It doesn t need to be strong to pack a punch. Cat 1 Winds
It doesn t need to be strong to pack a punch. Low End Cat 1 Winds Near Surface
The power of wind Hurricane Gustav - 2008 Hurricane Andrew - 1992 Hurricane Hugo - 1989
Structural Damage Cat 2 Frances - 2004 Cat 3 Rita- 2005
Structural Damage Cat 4 Hugo - 1989 Cat 5 Andrew- 1992
Unprotected windows/doors can result in major damage
Garage doors are a major weakness in most homes/businesses No support behind bottom of door
Tape will NOT protect your windows!
A hurricane s winds can travel far inland
Storm surge can be a major killer Galveston, 1900 (8000+ deaths)
Storm Surge Explained
Hurricane-proof house on Mississippi coast before Camille hit
Hurricane-proof house on Mississippi coast after Camille hit
New Orleans, LA after Katrina
Must be a Category 5, right? THIS IS A CATEGORY 2
When it comes to storm surge, size matters Surge 12-17 ft, locally up to 20 ft Surge 5-7 ft
Storm surge is not limited to the immediate coast
Storm surge is not limited to the immediate coast
It doesn t take a hurricane to produce flooding Remnants of TS Allison
Remnants of TS Allison caused major flooding Allison is the only tropical storm to have its name retired
River flooding can last days/weeks after a storm Sabine River Watershed
River flooding can last days/weeks after a storm
River flooding can last days/weeks after a storm
River flooding can last days/weeks after a storm
River flooding can last days/weeks after a storm
Most tornadoes occur in a hurricane s right-front quadrant not near the center Hurricane Isaac making landfall in SE Louisiana in 2012. (Red polygons are tornado warnings.) A land-falling hurricane does not typically produce the sort of mega tornadoes that can be frequent in the Plains, but even the wind of a weak tornado can be stronger than the max wind of the hurricane.
Hurricane Ivan Tornado Outbreak Sep. 15 th, 2004 Sep. 16 th, 2004 Sep. 17 th, 2004
Hurricane Ivan Tornado Outbreak 120 tornadoes Lasted over 2 days 7 dead, 41 injured Nearly $100 million in damage 18 EF-2s and 1 EF-3
Other Hurricane Tornado Outbreaks Andrew 61 Tornadoes
Other Hurricane Tornado Outbreaks Rita (2005) 89 Tornadoes
Other Hurricane Tornado Outbreaks Frances (2004) 103 Tornadoes
Other Hurricane Tornado Outbreaks Beulah (1967) 115 Tornadoes
Weather is the primary cause of business disruption in the U.S. Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
Almost every area of the country was impacted, resulting in huge profit leaks
Offshore operators cannot afford to take any chances when it comes to hurricanes
Refineries have special concerns when dealing with forecast uncertainty
Major retailers use weather forecasts to be last to close, first to open before a storm
Utilities deal with forecast uncertainty when preparing for a quick restoration
How Companies address weather challenges Add meteorological expertise to staff Contract with a professional consulting service
How does a proactive approach to dealing with weather impact the bottom line? Enhances safety Aids in taking appropriate actions in a timely manner Improves scheduling of routine operations Minimizes or avoids lost revenues from protracted shutdowns or interruptions of routine operations Minimize the risk from costly litigation
Common problems with hurricane response plans Plans that are outdated and not tested regularly Inadequate handling of storm surge threat Weak recovery plans Lack of employee preparedness Don t deal with forecast uncertainty
Think about how your hurricane plan deals with uncertainty in the forecast Are actions based solely on the latest forecast? Have you incorporated appropriate triggers to escalate your response plans? How do you take into account a possible alternate scenario? (uncertainty)
The biggest problem businesses have in dealing with the weather is the uncertainty Model Forecasts for Hurricane Isaac
84hrs before impact of 39 mph winds, Ike was forecast to strike the lower Texas Coast X
Plan based on predicted ETA of 74 mph wind in Houston would require no actions taken X
60 hours before impact, the forecast had shifted to a mid Texas coast impact X
Within 60 hours before impact, hurricane force winds remain south of Beaumont X
24 hours before impact, the track had shifted to the upper Texas Coast X
24 hours before impact, the track had shifted to the upper Texas Coast
Think about your own plan. How does it deal with uncertainty?
Hurricane Season Outlook
Most ensemble members of European model forecast Neutral to La Niña conditions in 2016
High pressure forecast by European model, but lower than last season Higher Pressure Higher PressureHigher Pressure Higher Pressure Red = High Pressure / Sinking Air Blue = Low Pressure / Rising Air
This year, European model has near-normal rainfall in western Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico Brown = Less Rain / Sinking Air Green = More Rain / Rising Air
Water temperatures across the western Atlantic and Caribbean are currently above-normal Above Normal Above Normal Below Normal Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue
Conflicting Signals: Most analog seasons were very busy, others not so busy Year Named Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes ACE 1988 12 5 3 103 2007 15 6 2 72 1966 11 7 3 145 1970 10 5 2 34 1983 4 3 1 17 1995 19 11 5 228 Avg. 12 7 3 100
Mixed Signals for the Forecast Active Season Inactive Season Warm Tropical Water Normal Rainfall Predicted No El Niño (less Caribbean shear) Some Analogs Say Active High Pressure in Tropics Warm Water in far East Pacific Cool Water NE Atlantic Some Analogs Say Inactive
We have already had the first hurricane of 2016 Alex, back in mid January Hurricane Alex 85 mph winds Jan. 13-17
Need to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico this season for close-in development
Names for 2016: We may get down to Matthew in the list of names Alex Hermine Otto Bonnie Ian Paula Colin Julia Richard Danielle Karl Shary Earl Lisa Tobias Fiona Matthew Virginie Gaston Nicole Walter
The 27 th Annual Hurricane Seminar for Business and Industry Hurricanes 101 What you need to know about tropical cyclones Building A Better Plan Best practices for business continuity and safety Employee Preparedness Presentation Hurricane safety tips every employee can use today The Future of Forecasting Innovative tactics, tools, and technology Hurricane Outlook Stay up to date on the season s forecast Hurricaneseminar.com