CORDEX Simulations for South Asia

Similar documents
performance EARTH SCIENCE & CLIMATE CHANGE Mujtaba Hassan PhD Scholar Tsinghua University Beijing, P.R. C

CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models

Temperature and rainfall changes over East Africa from multi-gcm forced RegCM projections

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Ramesh Vellore. CORDEX Team: R. Krishnan, T.P. Sabin, J. Sanjay, Milind Mujumdar, Sandip Ingle, P. Priya, M.V. Rama Rao, and Madhura Kane

Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics

Climate change outlook over the Mediterranean from the science respective

Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM

Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines

Tropical Cyclones in a regional climate change projections with RegCM4 over Central America CORDEX domain

Dynamical Seasonal Monsoon Forecasting at IITM

Projected change in the East Asian summer monsoon from dynamical downscaling

Climate Modeling: From the global to the regional scale

Water Balance in the Murray-Darling Basin and the recent drought as modelled with WRF

Extreme Weather Events Rainfall

ABSTRACT 2 DATA 1 INTRODUCTION

Faisal S. Syed, Shahbaz M.,Nadia R.,Siraj I. K., M. Adnan Abid, M. Ashfaq, F. Giorgi, J. Pal, X. Bi

Assessment of Temperature Scenarios for Chhattisgarh by using RegCM

Andrey Martynov 1, René Laprise 1, Laxmi Sushama 1, Katja Winger 1, Bernard Dugas 2. Université du Québec à Montréal 2

Ensemble Trajectories and Moisture Quantification for the Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Event

Pseudo-Global warming approach using 4KM WRF model

Regional Climate Change Modeling: An Application Over The Caspian Sea Basin. N. Elguindi and F. Giorgi The Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste Italy

Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Model

Planetary boundary layer schemes in RegCM: evaluation and impact on the climate change signal over Europe and Mediterranean region

Summary and concluding remarks

WRF MODEL STUDY OF TROPICAL INERTIA GRAVITY WAVES WITH COMPARISONS TO OBSERVATIONS. Stephanie Evan, Joan Alexander and Jimy Dudhia.

Near future ( ) projection of the East Asia summer monsoon by an atmospheric global model with 20-km grid

Application of the Ems-Wrf Model in Dekadal Rainfall Prediction over the Gha Region Franklin J. Opijah 1, Joseph N. Mutemi 1, Laban A.

SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia: A Regional Initiative to Provide Regional Climate Change Information and Capacity Building

Climate Modeling Dr. Jehangir Ashraf Awan Pakistan Meteorological Department

Downscaling and Probability

Sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in Catalonia (NE Spain)

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics parameterizations

Toshi Matsui, Taka Iguchi, and Wei-Kuo Tao NASA GSFC Code 612 ESSIC UMD

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r

Regional Climate Downscaling over South Asia- CORDEX South Asia

Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014

A comparative study on the genesis of North Indian Ocean cyclone Madi (2013) and Atlantic Ocean cyclone Florence (2006)

Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) and their forecasting significance

Application and Evaluation of the Global Weather Research and Forecasting (GWRF) Model

UNFCCC Technical Workshop on Collaboration among Regional Centres / Networks

Atmospheric processes leading to extreme flood events

The western Canada high resolution WRF simulation

The role of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau for the Indian Monsoon

Deducing the Future from Models: Other Model variables.

Downscaling West African climate: uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability

Project of Strategic Interest NEXTDATA. Special Project RECCO

Challenges of convection-permitting regional climate simulations for future climate projection in Japan

IITM Earth System Model (IITM ESM)

An Overview of NRCM Research and Lessons Learned

MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN

Climate Change and Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Shu-Ya Chen 1, Tae-Kwon Wee 1, Ying-Hwa Kuo 1,2, and David H. Bromwich 3. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 2

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou , China 2

Sensitivity Study of Different RegCM4.4 Model Set-Ups Recent Results from the TVRegCM Experiment

Introduction to Dynamical Downscaling of ARPEGE-Climat Output Using WRF Over West Africa

The Global Weather Research and Forecasting (GWRF) Model: Model Evaluation, Sensitivity Study, and Future Year Simulation

CORDEX and the MENA domain. Panos Hadjinicolaou Associate Professor The Cyprus Institute Cyprus

High resolution rainfall projections for the Greater Sydney Region

Simulation of the regional climate model REMO over CORDEX West-Asia Pankaj Kumar, Daniela Jacob

Climate Modelling: Basics

Enhanced Confidence in Regional Climate Projections from Dynamical Down Scaling

Yuqing Wang. International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822

Regional Climate Modeling: Status and Perspectives

High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

What you need to know in Ch. 12. Lecture Ch. 12. Atmospheric Heat Engine

Sensitivity of CWRF simulations of the China 1998 summer flood to cumulus parameterizations

An Introduction to Climate Modeling

CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century (C20C) Project

Egyptian Meteorological Authority Cairo Numerical Weather prediction centre

Evaluation of High-Resolution WRF Model Simulations of Surface Wind over the West Coast of India

Monsoon variability and Extreme events over South Asia Present and Future

Impact of wind changes in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere on tropical ozone

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF SUMMER MONSOON CLIMATE OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA BY RSM

Development of New Ensemble Methods Based on the Performance Skills of Regional Climate Models over South Korea

P Hurricane Danielle Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasting Study Using the NCAR Advanced Research WRF Model

Subproject 01 Climate Change in the Okavango region

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in River Basins of China Projected by RegCM4

Numerical Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Seasonality over the Western North Pacific

4.4 EVALUATION OF AN IMPROVED CONVECTION TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN THE NCAR COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL CAM2 UNDER CAPT FRAMEWORK

The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL

Precipitation Simulations Using WRF as a Nested Regional Climate Model

Air-Sea Interaction and the MJO

Development and Validation of Polar WRF

591 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL EXPERIMENT USING REGCM SUBGRIDDING OPTIONS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF MED-CORDEX

Convection Trigger: A key to improving GCM MJO simulation? CRM Contribution to DYNAMO and AMIE

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE The Skillful Time Scale of Climate Models

ICRC-CORDEX Sessions A: Benefits of Downscaling Session A1: Added value of downscaling Stockholm, Sweden, 18 May 2016

Arctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies

Oral Presentations: The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeast Asia Project

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Applying the Betts Miller Janjic Scheme of Convection in Prediction of the Indian Monsoon

Ocean responses using atmospheric fields at

A downscaling and adjustment method for climate projections in mountainous regions

ATMOSPHERIC MODEL. Iracema Fonseca Albuquerque Cavalcanti

Chris Lennard. Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa

Seasonal Prediction, based on Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction system (CanSIPS) for the Fifth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum

STUDY OF FUTURE WEATHER DATA CONSIDERING GLOBAL AND LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR BUILDING ENERGY SIMULATION

Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming

Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño Prediction

Transcription:

WCRP CORDEX South Asia Planning Meeting 25-26 February 2012 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune, India CORDEX Simulations for South Asia J. Sanjay Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune (Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India) Email: sanjay@tropmet.res.in

Multiyear simulation of the Indian climate using RCMs with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis The credibility of the RCMs in reproducing the observed regional climate is a good measure for providing reliable regional climate change projections with it The new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-interim reanalysis is used to provide initial and perfect lateral boundary conditions for the RCM simulations

ARW_West_Asia Configuration: Version: ARW 3.1.1 Domain: 17.15 o E - 120.86 o E; 18.03 o S - 48.50 o N (Includes 5 grid-point boundary relaxation zone) Horizontal resolution: 50 km Mercator projection; 211x151 grids Vertical resolution: 28 vertical levels Initial & Lateral boundary data: Global 6-hourly ERA Interim data at 0.75 o x 0.75 o resolution on 60 ECMWF model hybrid levels Model time step: 4 minutes Output history interval: 3 hourly Restart interval: Monthly SST_update: 6 hourly Physics BMJ KF2 Microphysics WSM 5-class WSM 5-class Deep Cumulus convection Betts-Miller Miller-Janjic Kain-Fritsh new eta Shortwave Radiation RRTMG RRTMG Longwave Radiation RRTMG RRTMG Atmospheric Boundary Layer YSU YSU Surface Fluxes Monin-Obukhov Monin-Obukhov Land Surface Unified Noah Unified Noah

RegCM3_West_Asia Configuration: Version: RegCM3.1 Domain: 17.15 o E - 120.86 o E; 18.03 o S - 48.50 o N (Includes 5 grid-point boundary relaxation zone) Horizontal resolution: 50 km Normal Mercator projection; 256x170 grids Vertical resolution: 23 vertical levels; ptop=50 hpa Initial & Lateral boundary data: Global 6-hourly ERA Interim data at 0.75 o x 0.75 o resolution on 60 ECMWF model hybrid levels Model time step: 1 minute Output history interval: 1 day Restart interval: Monthly SST_update: 6 hourly Physics Microphysics Deep Cumulus convection Shortwave Radiation Longwave Radiation Atmospheric Boundary Layer Surface Fluxes Land Surface Atmospheric Aerosols and Chemistry RGM-EML SUBEX Emanuel (MIT) NCAR CCM3 NCAR CCM3 Holtslag Monin-Obukhov BATS off RGM-GRLGRL SUBEX Grell NCAR CCM3 NCAR CCM3 Holtslag Monin-Obukhov BATS off

Obs ERA-Interim The large scale mean precipitation patterns during Indian summer monsoon season (June-September) are found to be realistically simulated ARW-KFE RGM-EML ARW-BMJ RGM-GRL The regional mean summer precipitation over India is also realistic in these models. However the ARW-BMJ model overestimates the summer precipitation over the Bay of Bengal The simulation of the large scale seasonal mean precipitation is found to be sensitive to the choice of the deep cumulus scheme in ARW and RegCM3, which in turn impacts the simulation of Indian monsoon interannual variability

High resolution dynamical downscaling of regional climate change scenarios over West Asia using RegCM4 J.Sanjay, T.Sabin, R.Krishnan RCM: RegCM4.1 coupled to CLM3.5 LSM ; 50 km Mercator projection Forcing: Daily 3D atmospheric lateral boundary conditions from the LMDZ AGCM with high resolution zooming (~35 km) over India, which was forced with SST from the LMDZ ESM IPCC AR5 RCP4.5 simulations during 2006-2100 Runs on IITM Prithvi HPC with Mixed Cumulus: Land (Grell) + Ocean (Emanuel) JJAS Mean Precipitation (mm d -1 ) ERA-Interim Evaluation 18yr(1989-2006) RCP4.5 Scenario 27yr(2006-2032)

RegCM4 Monthly Mean Annual Cycle over India ---- IMD ---- CMAP ---- CRU ---- ERA-Interim ---- RCP4.5

The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4.1) is an evolution of the model originally developed at the NCAR and currently maintained at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy grid-point limited area model with a hydrostatic dynamical core (similar to the NCAR/PSU MM5; Grell et al. 1994) full radiation package (CCM3; Kiehl et al. 1996) allowing for the effects of greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols non-local planetary boundary layer scheme (Holtslag et al. 1990) multiple convection schemes (e.g., MIT Emanuel 1991; Grell 1993) SUBEX scheme to simulate large-scale precipitation (Pal et al. 2000) NCAR Community Land Model (CLM3.5; Oleson et al. 2008) that includes a physical representation of the coupling between the water, energy and carbon cycles