TROPICAL STORM NATE BRIEFING 5:00 AM CDT Friday, October 6, 2017 Prepared by: NWS NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans
Situation Overview No significant changes to the track forecast this morning. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for our forecast area. TS Nate is forecast to move NW with an increase in strength and forward speed. NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone. The storm is forecast to be hurricane strength near the southeast Louisiana coast by Saturday evening with landfall occurring late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Threat Levels Threat Level Extreme High Moderate Low None Winds Surge Rainfall/ Flooding Tornadoes
Current Satellite View
Wind Speed Probabilities The probability of sustained tropical storm force winds continues to increase across southeast LA and south MS. Tropical Storm conditions could begin as early as Saturday afternoon across southernmost coastal areas. Most likely arrival of tropical storm force winds is late Saturday. Tropical Storm Winds likely late Saturday night and Sunday with Hurricane force wind gusts
Most Likely Time of Arrival The earliest reasonable time of arrival of Tropical Storm force winds is Saturday morning for the coastal waters and Saturday afternoon for the southeast Louisiana coast. However, the most likely time this area could see Tropical Storm force winds will be late in the day on Saturday.
Potential Storm Surge A storm surge of up to 4 to 6 feet above ground level, isolated areas higher, is possible. Main impacts will be outside hurricane risk reduction system, near tidal lakes, and along coastal areas. Impacts will be highly dependent SLOSH MEOW for a 1 moving N at 15 mph at high tide - AGL on track
Storm Surge Watch/Warning A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the entire coastal area in the forecast area with the exception of the city of. Possibility of life threatening inundation from storm surge somewhere within the specified area within 48 hours.
Expected Storm Total Rainfall Rainfall forecast from 7AM this Morning through 7AM Monday Locally, most rain will occur Saturday and Sunday Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts
Summary of Impacts Wind current track places greatest chance of TS or force winds across SE LA and S MS. Late Saturday through Sunday is the time of greatest threat. Tropical Storm Force winds likely with hurricane force winds (especially gusts) possible on late Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall Dry today rain chances increase significantly Saturday and Sunday. Squalls likely developing late Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches on area wide basis. Isolated locations may have amounts near double Even though overall rainfall may not be as high as other tropical events, short duration (1 to 2 hours) can be high and produce flooding. Impacts will be highly dependent on track
Summary of Impacts, cont Surge Tides are expected to remain above normal due to prolonged easterly winds. Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for minor coastal flooding at times of high tide. A storm surge of up to 4 to 6 feet above ground level, isolated areas higher, is possible. Main impacts will be outside hurricane risk reduction system, near tidal lakes, and along coastal areas. Impacts will be highly dependent on track
TROPICAL STORM NATE BRIEFING Please contact WFO at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429 The next conference call briefing will be This afternoon at 2:00 PM CDT You can get the latest graphics and information on this storm at www.hurricanes.gov NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans