USGS Decision-Making Tools for Pre-Earthquake Mitigation and Post-Earthquake Response Tools of the Trade DAVID WALD United States Geological Survey NEHRP Workshop: Developing Earthquake Scenarios Sept 17-18, 18, 2008 San Francisco, CA USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, Colorado USGS Earthquake Web Pages Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) Did You Feel It? CISN Display ShakeMap ShakeCast Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Overview Focus here primarily on hazard (shaking) side of the scenario, and related information tools. ShakeMap hand-off to ShakeCast or HAZUS-MH for losses & comprehensive impact assessment. These are situational awareness tools associated with real events thus, should be used for scenarios. Tools available range from passive (web pages) to active (notifications), simple to sophisticated (applications), easy-to-install to substantial IT investments.
Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) ENS Sign up to receive notifications by email or cell/pda for any earthquake nationally (located by the regional networks of the ANSS) or nationally & globally (located by the NEIC). Click to edit Master title style Customize your notifications based on geographic boundaries, magnitude threshold & time of day. Click to edit Master subtitle style Multiple user profiles - get email for smaller earthquakes but get text messages for the big ones! Earthquake Notification Service http://earthquake. usgs.gov/ens/ M5.4 Alum Rock, CA Earthquake, Oct. 30, 2007 Did You Feel It? Macroseismic data collection via the Internet ShakeMap Automatic shaking intensity maps from Seismic data Acceleration (%g) ShakeMap Did You Feel It? 64,000 responses; Max Rate 48/sec(!) (sustained rate of 22/sec for 30 min) M5.2 Illinois Earthquake, April 18, 2008 Did You Feel It? 38K/30 min
ShakeMap Did You Feel It? Over 1 Million Individual Responses Nationally! (9 Years of DYFI? Data) Did You Feel it? DYFI? Intensity Map as a part of situational awareness Constraints for ShakeMap (areas of low instrumentation, domestically & internationally) Input into FEMA s HAZUS-MH, PAGER Would be easy to mimic DYFI page for a scenario? REPLACE WITH UPDATE ShakeMap Home Page ShakeMap Scenarios: Pacific Northwest ShakeMap Scenarios: Alaska
Nov 12, 2008 So. California ShakeOut 2008 ShakeMap Scenarios: Southern California ShakeMap Download Page Courtesy of D. Bausch, FEMA
Atlas event: 1976 M7.6 Guatemala Earthquake Historic Earthquake ShakeMap Atlas Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Taiwan Topography & Vs30 Measurements San Francisco Bay Area Topography & Vs30 measurements Vs30 From Slope Vs30 From Geology (Wills et al. 2000) Central and Eastern US Vs30 Derived From Topographic Slope Results Mississippi Embayment 30c 9c 3c
ShakeMap Scenario Archive??? ShakeCast Click to edit Master title style ShakeMap BroadCast Moving beyond looking at ShakeMap Click to edit Automatic Master Damage subtitle Assessment style for Critical Facilities High Med High Medium Low Div. Caltrans Water Resources OverpassesDams
ShakeCast Special capabilities for First Responders! Other ShakeCast Uses: Global Cities ROVER: Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk Implements FEMA 154 on smart phone Rapidly create an inventory buildings exposed to risk; ID those warranting detailed examination Integrated with HAZUS & ShakeCast Based on slides from K. Porter
Prompt Assessment of Global Click to edit Earthquakes Master for title Response style PAGER Click to edit Master subtitle style < 15 min < 15 min Magnitude & Epicenter Estimated Impact News Accounts ~ hours to days PAGER Goals Fundamentally change the nature of post-earthquake information: move beyond magnitude & hypocenter to estimate loss & provide situational awareness Click Primarily a to tool edit for post-earthquake, Master title rapid impact style assessment (particularly fatalities); priority is in the developing world where fatalities are greatest Also, provide basis for earthquake loss mitigation, thru earthquake Click to scenarios edit Master & vulnerability subtitle assessment style Collaborative, international effort Open model & data environment; develop intermediate products, tools, & data sets for other uses/users PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master subtitle style PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master subtitle style 51,000
6,200 Fatalities PAGER Reported Intensities 33 fatalities $40B damage Seismic Intensity 500 Fatalities Population Per Intensity Repeat of 1906 San Francisco (Magnitude 7.8): IX: 611,000 VIII: 4,822,000 Repeat of 1868 Hayward Fault (Magnitude 7.0): IX: 450,000 VIII: 1,8600,000 0 fatalities $200M damage
Future for Scenarios? Notifications from ENS/CISN Display. ShakeMap for standardized products o Need more comprehensive Archive of ShakeMap Scenarios o Need search by location, name, magnitude, etc. ShakeMap hand-off to ShakeCast, HAZUS-MH, etc., for losses & comprehensive impact assessment. ShakeCast/Rover for exercises & utility/structure impact assessment. PAGER for very rapid, overall impact assessment; HAZUS-MH for detailed losses, needs, & maps. Acknowledgments ShakeMap Support & development by Bruce Worden, Vince Quitoriano, & Kuo -Wan Lin Ongoing operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, and other ANSS regional Networks. ShakeCast Funding from USGS, Caltrans,, & the American Lifeline Alliance Development by Kuo-Wan Lin, w/ HungryMind Inc., Boulder. Loren Turner, P.E., Senior Transportation Engineer, Caltrans: Management of Caltrans support, primary development & testing V2.0 PAGER: Paul Earle, Mike Hearne,... Funding for USGS (from President s s Tsunami Supplemental) Funding from USAID/Office Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) ANSS, Global Seismic Network (GSN) Thank You http://earthquake.usgs.gov