() 1999 3 (A ID S A cqu ired Imm une D eficiency Syndrom e), (H IV ) 80 80 1998 1959 1998 11 24, : 1998 10%, 3340 2250 ; 1998 580 400 70% ; 1998 200 250 4g5; 10% 9 ; 15 10 9 95% ; 70, 3400 1150 83%,, : 10 1 1500 1 : Ro salind J. H arrison, M onkey Business, N ew A frican, A p ril 1998, p. 17. Ibid. p. 19. 25
,, :, 80, 90, 80 20 26,, 2600,,, Ch ristian F iala, How the W HO gets its A ID S figures, N ew A frican, A p ril 1998, p36. Battour A nkom ah, A re 26 m illion A fricans dying of A ID S? N ew A frican, D ecem ber 1998, p34.
( ),,, ;, 1998 544 19931997 31%,,, 200 20,,,,, 1998, 1997 5 4%, 200 1995,, Ph il Kw aram ba, A ID S cripp les Zim babw e agri2 culture, N ew A frican, M arch 1998, p33. Johannesburg, A ID S in A frica, 30 N ovem ber 1998, UNA ID S. 27
2 5, 1. 3 1g4 1%, 2000, : 50% 5% 612 10 9 64 47 40 2010 68 48 2005 15%, 1998 10 32% 1997 50%, 1996g19976650,, 1996, ( ) 28 C respo Sebunya, A ID S th reat from U ganda taxi drivers, N ew A frican, A p ril 1998, p. 24. W illiam O nyango, Kenya s econom y w ill be devastated by A ID S, N ew A frican, M arch 1998, p. 30. Tom N evin, W ill A ID S k ill A frica s econom y? A frican Business, 1998 N o. 230, p. 17. South A frica Yearbook1998, ISSN 030220681, ed. D elien Burgeṙ, 1998 12 1 Battour A nkom ah, A re 26 m illion A fricans dying of A ID S? N ew A frican, D ecem ber 1998, p. 35.
push fo rw ard the W estern democratization p rocess in the A frican coun tries. In the long run, as there ex ist con siderab le differences betw een the A frican and W estern coun tries in term s of econom ic foundation, po litical cu ltu re and social structu re, and w ith the ever heigh ten ing of con sciou sess on part of the A frican coun tries to seek road of indepen2 den t developm en t, the best road of democratic tran sfo rm ation can on ly be found on A frica s ow n po litical, econom ic and cu ltu ral so il. (G uo S huyong ) SOU TH A FR ICAN ECONOM Y: W H Y D IFF ICU L T TO TA KE O FF? 1999 is the election year fo r Sou th A frica. If the first non2 racial election in 1994 w as fo r freedom and peace, th is second national vo ting w ou ld be mo re focu sed on socio2econom ic is2 sues. It is recogn ized that the AN C governm en t has done a lo t in upgrading the living condi2 tion s fo r the h isto rically disadvan taged comm un ity, how ever, p ro jected targets fo r econom ic grow th have no t been reached. T he m ain con strain s fo r its econom ic grow th are no tab ly the financial bu rden inherited from the apartheid era, the low savings ratio, dependence on cap i2 tal inflow fo r balance of paym en ts and vu lnerab ility to tu rbu len t in ternational financial m ar2 kets, p rob lem s in its indu strial structu re, the h igh unemp loym en t rate and a non2competitive labou r m arkeṫ D esp ite of these w eaknesses, Sou th A frican m arket is regarded by investo rs as one of the mo st popular em erging m arkets w ith good econom ic fundam en tals and a base fo r m u ltinationals to estab lish regional headquarters. (Ya ng L ihua ) EFFECT S O F A ID S ON A FR ICA S ECONOM IC D EV ELO PM EN T: A PR EL IM INA R Y PROB E A frica today has becom e a severely afflicted area of A ID S w ith bo th of its infection rate and mo rtality num bering the first of the w o rld. T he sp read of A ID S in A frica is no t on ly en2 dangering the life and health of the A frican peop le, bu t also seriou sly affecting the p resen t and fu tu re econom ic developm en t of the A frican coun tries. A ID S has reduced the A frican peop le s capab ility of p roduction and con sump tion, increased the financial bu rden on fam i2 lies, affected the operational o rder, p rofit and gain s of en terp rises, and ob structed the stab le developm en t of comm un ities. In Sou th A frica, Zim babw e and U ganda, A ID S has slackened the speed of their econom ic p rogress. M any A frican coun tries w ill m eet severe test of A ID S in the fo rthcom ing decade. sufficien t atten tion from the A frican coun tries. T he th ing is that the seriou s effects of A ID S have no t yet draw n In case that no m easu res are taken to halt the rampan t sp read of the deadly desease, the econom ic situation in the A frican coun tries w ill be even mo re difficu lṫ (Zha n S him ing) 79