Weather briefing Strong Coastal Nor easter November 7 th -8 th, 2012 Prepared 1215 PM EDT Wednesday November 7, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Purpose of Briefing Briefing #6 for event Promote situational awareness for emergency management community & partners Provide guidance for planning efforts Briefing applies to Mount Holly service area shaded in green on map
Changes from previous briefing Forecast confidence has increased over the past 24 hours. Threat from wintry weather has increased. Snowfall totals over 3 inches are possible. Warnings for this event due to high winds, coastal flooding & wintry precipitation are now in effect. Monitor our website for the latest forecast & warning information http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Executive Summary A strong coastal nor easter will affect the region on November 7 th & 8 th. Storm force wind gusts (55-65 mph) are likely during this storm. Moderate coastal flooding is likely during this storm; the high tides of most concern are the ones around midday Wednesday, November 7 th and the following high tide Wednesday night. There will be moderate to severe beach erosion during this event. This nor easter will have greater impact than usual because of the serious impacts from Coastal Storm Sandy. There is a threat of snowfall with this storm; some locations may see over 3 inches. Next briefing package will be issued by Noon on Thursday, November 8th. Now that the storm is upon us, you need to monitor the latest forecast & warning information at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Forecasts will be updated every three hours throughout the event.
Coastal flooding threat Moderate coastal flooding is very likely with this storm along the Atlantic coast of New Jersey & Delaware, as well as on the Delaware Bay. Minor coastal flooding is possible on the Chesapeake Bay. High tides Wednesday & Wednesday night are the ones to watch. Waves in surf zone along the Atlantic Coast will be 7 to 10 feet. Moderate beach erosion is likely; major beach erosion is possible.
Things to keep in mind Impact from coastal flooding and strong wave action will be worsened due to effects of Coastal Storm Sandy. Dunes have been weakened or washed away; bulkheads damaged or destroyed. Coastal storm defenses have been seriously compromised. Err on side of caution when dealing with this nor easter.
Winds Wind gusts 55 to 65 mph are likely with this storm. Strongest winds closest to the Atlantic Coast. Structures and trees weakened by Coastal Storm Sandy may be further damaged by winds of this magnitude.
Temperatures Wind chill values will be in the 20s and 30s for much of the region during the height of the storm. These will be dangerous conditions for those working outdoors or still experiencing power outages due to Coastal Storm Sandy.
Precipitation Precipitation expected on Wednesday, November 7 th into Thursday, November 8 th. Rain, but likely mixing with or changing to snow over much of the region. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches expected, highest amounts closest to the Atlantic Coast.
Snowfall Map on left shows snowfall accumulations for the region. With temperatures mainly above freezing, snow will more likely accumulate on grassy surfaces than pavement. However, snow may also stick to trees & power lines, potentially causing additional problems. Visibilities may be reduced particularly during this evening s commute.
Questions? For the latest information, visit our website at weather.gov If you have any questions, please contact us. Gary.Szatkowski@noaa.gov Office 609-261-6602 x222 Forecast 609-261-6600 Joseph.Miketta@noaa.gov Office 609-261-6602 x223