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Piet Rietveld Frank Bruinsma Is Transport Infrastructure Effective? Transport Infrastructure and Accessibility: Impacts on the Space Economy With 50 Figures and 99 Tables, Springer
Professor Dr. Piet Rietveld Dr. Frank Bruinsma Vrije Universiteit Faculty of Economics De Boelelaan 1105 NL-IOBI HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands ISBN-13: 978-3-642-72234-9 DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-72232-5 e-isbn-13: 978-3-642-72232-5 Cataloging-in-Data applied for Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme Rietveld, Piet: Is transport infrastructure effective? : transport infrastructure and accessibility impacts on the space economy; with 99 tables I Piet Rietveld; Frank Bruinsma. - Berlin; Heidelberg; New York; Barcelona; Budapest; Hong Kong; London; Milan; Paris; Singapore; Tokyo: Springer, 1998 (Advances in spatial science) This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. @ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1998 Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1998 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific, statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Hardcoverdesign: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg SPIN 10655441 42/2202-5 432 1 0 - Printed on acid-free paper
Preface When in 1989 the authors started research on infrastructure, they did not foresee that this would lead to a long-term involvement in this area. Our beginning happened to coincide with the publication of David Aschauer's article on public capital and productivity, which induced a large flow of publications in this field. Infrastructure has indeed been a hot topic in policy and research during the past decade. It is surprising, however, that the number of monographs on spatial and economic impacts of infrastructure has remained very limited. The aim of this book is to contribute to the literature in a consolidated way. A distinguishing feature of our book is that we analyze infrastructure impacts using various methods (both modelling and non-modelling) at a variety of spatial levels (from local to international). Other special features are that we make ample use of 'accessibility' as a bridge concept between the areas of infrastructure and the economy. Finally, we not only treat transport infrastructure projects as given, as is the usual approach in infrastructure impact research, but we also analyze the factors influencing infrastructure supply. We have adopted a mainly non-technical approach throughout most of the book. This means that it can also be used by readers without a strong background in statistics, modelling or micro-economics. A considerable part of the book is clearly related to papers already published in various journals and edited books. The essential sections of the introductory Chapters (J -4) however, have been written specifically for this book. The empirical part of the book has both a national (Dutch) and an international (European) orientation, however, the emphasis is not on the specific
VI Preface region or country itself, but rather on the existence and spatial distribution of impacts of infrastructure projects (urban belt ways, international express ways, railways, etc). Therefore, we believe that the book is also valuable for those not particularly interested in the specific regions examined. It was about seven years ago after completing a book that one of the authors insisted he would never write a book again because of the large amount of work involved and the frustrations with the word-processors of that time. The present book shows that this claim was premature. Improved word processors have indeed helped soften some of the hardships of writing, and infrastructure appeared to be a challenging theme to address. We want to express our gratitude to several colleagues who contributed to specific sections of the book. In alphabetical order we thank Jaap Boonstra, Maarten Hilferink, Joost van Nierop, Peter Nijkamp, Gerard Pepping, and Sytze Rienstra for their valuable contributions. The maps in the book have mostly been produced by o"ur colleagues Wim Douven, Michel Grothe, and particularly Niels Vlaanderen, who have great expertise with Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Not only are we thankful to colleagues working in our own department; the following colleagues throughout Europe made their data available for us: Nadine Cattan, DA TAR, Ulf Erlandsson, Javier Gutierres, Wilhelm Meester, Piet Pellenbarg, Klaus Spiekermann, and Michael Wegener. Michel Wegener and Chris Jensen-Butler and Bjarne Madsen were so kind to allow us to use parts of their empirical studies as examples of international-oriented infrastructure impact research. The results of some research projects are already presented in journals or as chapters in edited books. We thank the publishers Carfax (Regional Studies, Urban Studies), KNAG (TESG), Nomos, Pion (Environment & Planning A), Springer (Annals of Regional Science), and Wiley for their permission to rewrite and use the material once again for this book. We also thank the editorial board of Advances in Spatial Science (especially Folke Snickars), as well as Marianne Bopp from Springer for their encouragement to complete this project. Finally, we thank Sue Davis who corrected our English. Amsterdam, Easter 1998 Piet Rietveld Frank R. Bruinsma
Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The Scope of the Book 3 1.3 Policy Analysis of Infrastructure Projects: Impact Studies 4 1.4 Accessibility Impacts 6 1.5 Infrastructure and Location Decisions of Firms 7 1.6 Transport Infrastructure: Supply or Demand Driven? 9 1.7 Infrastructure and the Environment JO 1.8 Aim and Structure of the Book 12 Part A: Concepts, Theory and Review of Empirical Research 2 Concepts and Data 17 2.1 I ntroducti on 17 2.2 Defining Infrastructure 17 2.3 Infrastructure and Publicly Provided Capital 21 2.4 Ways of Measuring Infrastructure 23 2.5 Trends in Infrastructure Investments 26 2.5.1 Europe 26 2.5.2 The Netherlands 29 2.5.3 Trends in Private Versus Public Capital Formation 30 2.6 The Accessibility Concept 33 2.6.1 Definitions of Accessibility 33
VIII Contents 2.7 2.6.2 Further Variations in the Accessibility Concept 37 2.6.3 Problems in the Measurement of Accessibility 39 2.6A Broader Comparison of Some Accessibility Measures 41 2.6.5 Link between Infrastructure Improvement and Accessibility 43 Conclusion 44 3 Theory: Infrastructure and the Space Economy 3.1 3.2 3.3 Introduction Transport Infrastructure as a Production Factor Transport Infrastructure, Interregional Trade and Industrial Location 3.3.1 Transport Infrastructure and Interregional Trade 3.3.2 Transport Infrastructure and Industrial Location 3A Other Approaches to Measure Effects of Infrastructure Improvements 3 A.I Spatial Organization of Distribution 3 A.2 Housing and Labour Market 3A.3 Transport Infrastructure and Land Prices 3 AA Monopolistic (Monopsonistic) Price Setting 3.5 Distributive and Generative Effects 3.6 External Benefits to Transport? 3.7 Costs and Benefits Versus Other Effects of Infrastructure Investment 3.8 Conclusion 46 46 51 55 55 59 61 61 62 63 65 66 69 72 74 4 A Review of Empirical Infrastructure Impact Research 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Methods for Analyzing Transport Infrastructure Impacts 4.3 Transport Infrastructure and RegionallNational Productivity 4A Transport Infrastructure and Relocation of Economic Activity 4.5 Transport Infrastructure and Intra-Urban Development 4.6 Major European Infrastructure Projects: Two Case Studies 4.6.1 The Danish Fixed Links 4.6.2 The Channel Tunnel 4.7 Concluding Remarks 75 75 76 79 86 93 98 98 103 107
Contents IX Part B: European Accessibility Studies Introduction to Part B 113 5 The Accessibility of Cities in European Infrastructure Networks 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Methodology 5.3 Air Traffic 5.4 Rail Traffic 5.5 Road Traffic 5.6 National Borders as Barriers in the Road Network 5.7 Integration of the Transport Modes: the Shortest Travel Time 5.8 Equity in Accessibility 5.8.1 Air Traffic and the Shortest Travel Time 5.8.2 Rail Traffic 5.8.3 Road Traffic 5.8.4 The Transport Modes Compared 5.9 Concluding Remarks 6 A Comparison of European Accessibility Studies 6.1 Introduction 6.2 A Comparison of Accessibility Measures 6.2.1 Methodological Aspects of the Seven Studies 6.2.2 A Comparison of Approaches 6.3 Comparison of the Rankings of Each Transport Mode 6.3.1 Multi-Modal 6.3.2 Air Traffic 6.3.3 Rail Traffic 6.3.4 High-Speed Trains Network 6.3.5 Comparison between Modes 6.4 Conclusion Appendices 115 115 116 119 122 124 127 132 134 134 135 136 138 139 140 140 141 142 146 147 148 151 154 157 160 163 165
x Contents Part C: Regional and Urban Impact Studies Introduction to Part C 171 7 Road Infrastructure and Corridor Development: 7.1 7.2 7.3 Regional Models Introduction- The Development of Accessibility in the Netherlands 7.2.1 The Development of Regional Employment in the 174 Netherlands 177 7.2.2 The Development of Accessibility in the Different Zones 179 7.2.3 Using an Accessibility Index 180 7.2.4 Correlations in Accessibility Growth 183 A Reference Region Approach 185 7.3.1 Introduction to the Al Highway and the AI-Regions 185 7.3.2 The AI-Regions Compared with the Remainder of the Intermediary Zone 187 7.3.3 The AI-Regions Compared to Reference Regions 188 7.3.4 Remarks on the Reference Region Approach 190 7.4 A Regional Labour Market Approach 190 7.4.1 The Regional Labour Market: an Introduction 190 7.4.2 The Results of the Model for Total Regional Employment 192 7.4.3 Results for the Transport and Communication Sector 194 7.5 Conclusions 195 174 177 8 Road Infrastructure and Corridor Development: Entrepreneurial Surveys 8.1 8.2 Introduction Entrepreneurial Surveys: an Introduction 8.2.1 The Surveys of 1989 and 1994 8.2.2 General Results of the 1989 Survey 8.3 Infrastructure-<md Firm Development 8.3.1 Development of Employment 8.3.2 New and Relocated Firms 8.4 Infrastructure Components 8.4.1 The Impact of Infrastructure in General 8.4.2 Bottlenecks in the Infrastructure Networks 197 197 200 200 201 204 204 205 208 208 209
Contents XI 8.5 8.4.3 Impact of the A 1 on the Performance of Firms Conclusions 210 212 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 Infrastructure and Urban Development: the Amsterdam Orbital Motorway Introduction Analyzing Impacts of Orbital Motorways The Amsterdam Orbital Motorway 9.3.1 Introduction 9.3.2 Effects of the Opening of the Orbital Motorway on the Traffic Volumes 9.3.3 Effects of the Opening of the Orbital Motorway on Traffic Behaviour 9.3.4 Effects of the Opening of the Orbital Motorway on Congestion Effects of the Orbital Motorway on the Office Market Effects of the Orbital Motorway by Entrepreneurs 9.5.1 Introduction 9.5.2 The Use of the Amsterdam Orbital Motorway 9.5.3 Hindrance Before the Opening 9.5.4 The Effects of the Opening for the Companies 9.5.5 Expected Consequences if the Orbital Motorway had not been Completed Conclusion Amsterdam Orbital Motorway Models Versus Surveys? 9.7.1 Results Achieved by Model Approaches 9.7.2 Results Achieved by Entrepreneurial Surveys 214 214 215 219 219 221 222 223 223 230 230 231 233 234 236 236 238 238 239 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 Accessibility and the Valuation of Cities Introduction The Valuation of Dutch Cities as Industrial Sites Accessibility of the Cities via the Road Network 10.3.1 Operationalization Accessibility 10.3.2 The Accessibility Measures Road Infrastructure and the Valuation of Location Sites 10.4.1 Correlation Analysis 243 243 246 251 251 253 262 262
XII Contents 10.4.2 Regression Analysis 264 10.5 Conclusion 268 11 Urban Location Preferences of Entrepreneurs 271 11.1 Introduction 271 11.2 Different Applications of Entrepreneurial Surveys 272 11.3 Relocations of Firms 274 11.3.1 The Location of Firms in 1994 11.3.2 The Relocations during the Period 1980-1994 11.3.3 Locational Preferences of Firms 274 279 280 11.4 A Stated Preference Analysis of Locational Profiles 11.4.1 Qualitative Analysis 11.4.2 Quantitative Analysis 285 287 289 11.5 Conclusions 294 Part D: Infrastructure Supply Studies Introduction to Part D 299 12 Evolution of the Dutch Railway Network and Urban Development 301 12.1 Introduction 301 12.2 The Interrelationship between Network Development and Urban Development 302 12.3 Development of the Dutch Railway System 305 12.3.1 Historical Description 305 12.3.2 Factors at the Demand Side 306 12.3.3 Cost Factors 309 12.3.4 Military Considerations 310 12.4 Network Design Methods 311 12.4.1 Network Design: Cost Minimization Algorithms 311 12.4.2 Network Design: Introduction of the Demand Side 316 12.4.3 The Rate of Return on Investment in Network Infrastructure 319 12.5 Application: the Development of the Dutch Railway System 320 12.6 Impacts of Railway Development on Urban Development 326
Contents xiii 12.7 Concluding Remarks Appendices 329 330 13 Determinants of Infrastructure Supply in European Regions 13.1 Introduction 13.2 The Spatial Distribution of Infrastructure Networks 13.3 A Spatial Model of Infrastructure Supply 13.4 Estimation of the Infrastructure Supply Model 13.5 Infrastructure Supply within Border Regions 13.6 Concluding Remarks 333 333 336 337 341 346 348 14 Conclusion 14.1 The Infrastructure Concept 14.2 Accessibility 14.3 Impacts of Infrastructure Supply 14.4 Spatial Scale of Infrastructure Impacts 14.5 Infrastructure Impacts: Models Versus Entrepreneurial Perceptions 14.6 Locational Behaviour 14.7 Analysis of the Behaviour of Suppliers of Infrastructure 14.8 Is Infrastructure Effective? 14.9 Prospects References 351 351 352 354 357 358 360 361 363 364 367