EUMETNET highlights Dick Blaauboer with thanks to Michael Staudinger, Rainer Kaltenberger, Yong Wang, Ingo Meirold- Mautner, Balazs Szintai, Alessandro Chiariello, Heleen ter Pelkwijk, Jose A Garcia Moya, Chiara Marsigli, Manuel Palomares and many others 23 rd annual meeting WGCEF, Warsaw, 12-13 October 2017
Forecasting Programmes and groups 2017 Forecasting Programme Management KNMI Dick Blaauboer Expert Team Forecasting 1 meeting per year EMMA ZAMG Michael Staudinger EMMA-H ZAMG Michael Staudinger EUMETCAL FMI Alessandro Chiariello C-SRNWP OMSZ Balázs Szintai SRNWP-EPS AEMET Jose Antonio García-Moya ASIST ZAMG Yong Wang Expert team EMMA Expert team EMMA-H Expert teams EUMETCAL SRNWP & EWGLAM Annual meeting Expert Team SRNWP-EPS Expert Team ASIST 2
EMMA, EMMA-H PM Michael Staudinger The size of the areas for the alerts decreased in 2016 in several countries September 2017: 14 partners imported their warning messages in CAP standard, 10 are testing, rest to follow until end this year The Meteoalarm - Google cooperation has been given lower priority by the Google organization (Google Severe Weather Programme) Next phase proposed activities: Redesign of the website Development of the social media strategy Multi-hazard warnings Communication of storm naming and more.. ERCC operations room Important MEG and MPG meeting in De Bilt/Utrecht 28-29 March 2017, partly joint with EFAS Hydro-warnings in Meteoalarm Presentations related projects: o Aristotle (ERCC) o ANYWHERE (H2020) o WMO FFGS o Copernicus EMS 3
ASIST: ENC 2017, 3-5 May DWD ~100 participants 24 nations Sessions on Observations Nowcasting techniques User aspects and verification Combination of NWP and nowcasting Heavy thunderstorms/ lightning with flooding in Offenbach and temporary shutdown of FRA All presentations can be found at the EUMETNET website under ASIST: http://eumetnet.eu/activities/forecastingprogramme/current-activities-fc/asist/
ASIST (2) WA1: Nowcasting techniques and systems Potential for delivering probabilistic nowcasting/vsrf EPS information to end users: Joint workshop with SRNWP-EPS in 2018 WA2: Observation and NWP Benefit of exchanging additional observations/ information on regional and sub-regional scales for nowcasting purposes Bilateral data exchange important EUMETNET data in VSRF (NWP), not in nowcasting OPERA: nice overview; too late for nowcasting NWCSAF, MSG important Future: MTG (IRS/ lightning), higher density networks, crowdsourced data
ASIST (3) WA3: Verification Cooperation with ESSL testbed Contact established Participation encouraged among members Limiting factor: price tag of min. 5,000 Positive feedback from participants Guidelines for evaluating nowcasting systems Training material, with Eumetcal WA4: Application and user aspect Description of end users needs and system requirements w.r.t. nowcasting
Coordination of (8!) ET s on different sub-domains of (SR)NWP) basis for cooperation within C-SRNWP and for new activities Interface with OBS programme obs. requirements Supporting SEECOP C-SRNWP EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting: ECMWF, Reading, 2-5 October Around 70 participants Theme: convection PM Balazs Szintai Next phase drafted: Current activities EWGLAM fin. support GLDB fin. Support Short Term Scientific Missions Involvement in impact studies Support meeting participation for low GNI countries Next EWGLAM meeting: To be hosted by ZAMG, Salzburg 1-4 October 2018 7
C-SRNWP and SRNWP EPS related Application part The calibration tool and the software to generate fog forecasting are almost completed and are being tested during autumn 2017; The software for thunderstorm forecasting is a little bit delayed according to the schedule and it is expected to be ready for testing in winter 2017/2018; PM José-Antonio García-Moya Science part Next workshop will be held at AEMET, Madrid, 24-26 October 2017 where results of experiments will be presented and decisions taken on next experimental phase Establishment of User Group postponed to next phase: not feasible without additional funding, but important for developing user tailored applications 8
SRNWP EPS II, forecasters feedback on using SREPS Useful features: forecast in terms of probability (especially useful for severe weather/ extreme events), provides estimation of uncertainty, long range forecast available in ECMWF ENS Drawbacks: lack of spread, lower spatial resolution, lack of consistency, uncertainty in the interpretation of the probabilities Research WP will focus on improving the drawbacks mentioned by forecasters
Eumetcal and WGE&T: developments for new program phase
Eumetcal and WGE&T: developments for new program phase (2) Partners: NMHSs and external:
Preparation of new phase: Drafting Teams Main theme for Forecasting Programme: Impact based Warning/Forecasting Spring 2017: Drafting Teams established: DT OBS, DT FOR DT FOR: o o o o o Goal: draft the requirements and include them in Invitation to submit proposals for new phase co-chairs Andreas Schaffhauser (ZAMG), Jan Rozema (KNMI) First face-to face meeting: Offenbach, 26-27 September Preliminary delivery to STAC/PFAC: October 2017, Forecasting Capability Area structure, first draft of requirements, benefits for Members Final delivery: February 2018: Final draft Invitation to submit proposals including all requirements Conclusion in 2018: o o o May: Invitation to submit proposals documents approved by Assembly and distributed among Members September: Deadline for Programme proposals by (consortia of) Members October: evaluation of proposals by evaluation committees (recruited from STAC/PFAC) o November: new programme decisions by Assembly 12
NMS service Provision to end users Forecasting Capability Area Management EUMETNET goverannce, outreach FP Proposed Structure and Interfaces EMMA Meteoalarm * Aggregation, Repository Harmonization Dissemination CAP feed, maps -> users Forecaster Support Nowcasting* Workstation ECMWF LAM Consortia IbW Modules Moving to IbW C-SRNWP * NWP cooperation EPS* Post Processing Modules Capacity building Capacity building Education and Training* Infrastructure Marketplace/Broker Training consultancy * Existing Programms Observation Programmes WMO Global Campus Members + EMI Non Members GIE/EIG EUMETNET, L Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Avenue Circulaire 3, 1180 Bruxelles, Belgique
Heads of Forecasting meetings Warsaw host IMGW-PIB 10-11 May 2017, main theme: improving weather services throughout Europe, including impact-based forecasting and warning Special guest: Brian Golding, MetOffice, WMO WWRP HIWeather Presentation ESFS - European Storm Forecast Support - Christoph Gatzen - Potential service for EUMETNETMembers
Aristotle project (DG ECHO/ERCC) - Pilot Project in the area of Early Warning System for natural disasters - Financed by DG ECHO/ERCC - two year project: Feb 2016 Jan 2018 - Coordination: INGV, ZAMG - 15 partners: meteo, geo incl. EUMETNET - Tender for next phase to be expected Nov/Dec 2017
EMS 2017: 4-8 Sep. Dublin The 17th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC) was a great success with 814 participants from 46 countries Attended by FPM and Manuel Palomares as EUMETNET liaison with EMS and member of Programme and Science Committee (PSC) Next EMS: 3-7 September 2018, Budapest MetEireann/MetOffice pilot on Storm Naming The Helix, Dublin City Univ.
Questions? Dick Blaauboer Forecasting Programme Manager GIE/EIG EUMETNET ForecastingProgramme Manager Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute Utrechtseweg 297 3731 GA De Bilt Tel: + 31 30 2206455 Fax: + 31 30 2210407 Email: dick.blaauboer@knmi.nl Web: www.knmi.nl GIE EUMETNET Secretariat c/o L Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique Avenue Circulaire 3 1180 Bruxelles, Belgique Tel: +32 (0)2 373 05 18 Fax: +32 (0)2 890 98 58 Email: info@eumetnet.eu Web: www.eumetnet.eu