World Meteorological Organization

Appendix VI Presentation on disaster risk reduction brainstorming session (1) World Meteorological Organization WMO DRR Programme Dieter C. Schiessl Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department and Director, Strategic Planning Office WMO 12 July 2008 South West Pacific Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980 2007) Extreme Temperature 0.4% Drought 3% Epidemic, famine, insects 6% Tsunami 1.5% Volcano 7% Flood 23% Earthquake 11% Windstorm 40% Slides 6% Wild Fires 3% Wild Fires 0.13% Slides 1.3% Flood 3% Extreme T emperature 0.01% Drought 3% Windstorm 13% Earthquake 11% T sunami 57% Volcano 8% Number of events Slides 0.2% Flood 7% Extreme Temperature 0.3% Epidemic, famine, insects 4% Wild Fires 32% Loss of life Epidemic, famine, insects 0.2% Drought 19% Tsunami 8% Volcano 1.7% Earthquake 7% Windstorm 25% Economic losses 90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic losses are related to hydro meteorological hazards. Source: EM DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database www.em dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgiumc

Appendix VI, p.2 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological 345 160 103 88 47 24 4 11 14 56 65 66 75 76 85 86 95 96 05 decade Millions of casualties per decade 495 Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up Geological While casualties related to hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2.66 1.73 0.65 0.39 0.22 0.25 0.17 0.05 Hydrometeorological 0.67 0.22 56 65 66 75 76 85 86 95 96 05 decade Conclusions from 4 th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Phenomenon Increased frequency of heat waves Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events Area affected by drought increases Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Increased incidence of extreme high sea level Likelihood Very likely Very likely Likely Likely Likely Major projected impacts Increased risk of heat related mortality Increased loss of life and property due to flooding, and infectious, respiratory and skin diseases Increased risk of food and water shortage Increased risk of deaths, injuries, water and food borne diseases; Disruption by flood and high winds; Potential for population migrations, loss of property Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure

Appendix VI, p.3 Disaster risks are increasing due to: Increasing intensity and frequency of hydrometeorological hazards Increasing value of exposed assets resulting from development and demographic growth Disaster risk management is a critical component of climate change adaptation History of the WMO DRR Programme 2003: Cg XIV established the WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DPM) Programme (Res. 29) 2004: EC LVI established EC Advisory Group on DPM (Res. 5) 2005: EC LVII approved the DPM Implementation Plan 2006: EC LVIII requested development of DPM demonstration projects 2007: Cg XV approved WMO Strategic Goals in DRR derived from HFA; 2007: EC LIX replaced the EC WG/DPM by the EC WG/DRR and changed the programme name from DPM to DRR 2008: EC LX modified the EC WG/DRR into EC WG on DRR and Service Delivery

Appendix VI, p.4 DRR Strategic Basis Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan (3 Top Level Objectives, 5 Strategic Thrusts, 11 Expected Results) Consultations with regional associations, technical commissions, programmes and partner agencies Goals of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction WMO Strategic Plan 11 ER 1. Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better weather forecasts and warnings 3 Top level Objectives To produce more accurate, timely and reliable forecasts and warnings of weather, climate, water, and related environmental elements 5 Strategic Thrusts Science and Technology Development and Implementation 2. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better climate predictions and assessments 3. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better hydrological forecasts and assessments 4. Integration of WMO observing systems 5. Development and implementation of the new WMO Information System To improve the delivery of weather, climate, water, and related environmental information and services to the public, governments and other users To provide scientific and technical expertise and advice in support of policy and decision making and implementation of the agreed international development goals and multilateral agreements Service Delivery Partnership Capacity building Efficient Management and Good Governance 6. Enhanced capabilities of Members in multihazard early warning and disaster prevention and preparedness 7. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide and use weather, climate, water and environmental applications and services 8. Broader use of weather, climate and water outputs for decision making and implementation by Members and partner organizations 9. Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs in developing countries, particularly least developed countries, to fulfil their mandates 10. Effective and efficient functioning of constituent bodies 11. Effective and efficient management performance and oversight of the Organization

Appendix VI, p.5 WMO Strategic Plan & RBB 2008 2011 11 ER mchf 1. Enhanced capabilities of Members to produce better weather forecasts and warnings 19.9 In the past: the budget was approved for Programmes Now: Cg XV and EC LIX approved the WMO Budget for the ERs Reference: Res. 35 (Cg XV) RBB 2008 2011 2011 Res. 23 (EC LIX) RBB 2008 2009 2009 2. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better climate predictions and assessments 3. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide better hydrological forecasts and assessments 4. Integration of WMO observing systems 5. Development and implementation of the new WMO Information System 6. Enhanced capabilities of Members in multihazard early warning and disaster prevention and preparedness 7. Enhanced capabilities of Members to provide and use weather, climate, water and environmental applications and services 8. Broader use of weather, climate and water outputs for decision making and implementation by Members and partner organizations 9. Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs in developing countries, particularly least developed countries, to fulfil their mandates 10. Effective and efficient functioning of constituent bodies 11. Effective and efficient management performance and oversight of the Organization 17.5 4.9 16.9 7.0 12.3 53.2 28.6 22.4 72.5 14.5

Appendix VI, p.6 DRR Strategic Goals Key Words 1. Providing information for hazard risk assessment 2. Strengthening and sustainability of multi hazard Early Warning Systems (EWS) 3. Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts driven by user requirements 4. Strengthening NMHS cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and other DRR agencies 5. Training and public outreach campaigns, partnerships Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners resources/expertise. Large variation in technical capacities of NMHSs All National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were surveyed by the WMO Secretariat: 1. Hydro met and ocean met observing networks and stations, satellite receiving platforms 2. Forecasting of extremes 3. Capacities for delivering products and services to support DRR functions 4. Categorization of capacities (low, medium, high) Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction These analyses are being used for the implementation of DRR projects at the national and regional levels

Appendix VI, p.7 Role of NMHSs in Risk Assessment Flood, Drought, Tropical Cyclone, Severe Storm 1. Standardized hazard data & metadata (historical & real time) 2. Standardized hazard analysis and mapping methodologies FLOOD 3. Forecasts and trends (probabilistic NWP and climate models) 3. Use of risk assessments in sectoral planning (partners) 4. Capacity development and training 5. Demonstration projects in selected countries SEVERE STORMS / TROPICAL CYCLONES DROUGHT

Role of NMHSs in Risk Reduction: Early Warning Systems 2 COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES feedback risk warning Appendix VI, p.8 1 National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms preventive actions risk warning feedback 4 Community Preparedness Meteorological Hydrological Geological Oceanographic risk warning feedback 3 Environmental (etc.) NMHS Cooperation in EWS Increasing level of coordination with civil protection & risk management agencies to ensure maxiumum effectiveness of NMHS warnings Type I Type II Type III Warning service under the mandate of NMHS e.g. strong wind, heavy rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone Warning service under joint mandate with another technical agency e.g. flood, landslide, heat/health etc. Warning service under mandate of other agencies; NMHS contributes e.g. tsunami, locust, health epidemic, technological accident Increasing level of coordination with agencies responsible for early detection, monitoring and warning

Appendix VI, p.9 To assist Members in development of EWS, the WMO Secretariat is: 1) Documenting good practices governance, organizational coordination and operational processes; 2) Implementing demonstration projects for strengthening operational capacities and coordination (e.g. Central America, Shanghai, others ) 3) Facilitating sharing of experience through publications, manuals, study tours, training, symposia Role of NMHSs in support of Catastrophe Insurance & Weather Risk Management Emerging new role and possible new source of funding for NMHSs Generating awareness of the capabilities of the NMHSs Identification of requirements for hydro met and related information (types of data, quality, homogeneity of sequences, data rescue, coordinated research, risk indices, spatial and temporal pattern of risk, etc.) Provision of services and modes of delivery Involvement of the EC WG on DRR & Service Delivery Partners: World Bank, World Food Programme, Reinsurance Sector, WRMA

Appendix VI, p.10 Thank You Support Slides

Appendix VI, p.11 Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) Insurance Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging services Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Criteria for Good Practices in EWS (outcome of the Symposium on Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems, WMO UNDP WB OCHA UNESCO ISDR, Geneva, May 2006) Political commitment, DRR plans, legislation, roles and responsibilities (national to local) Overall Coordination and operational working mechanisms among agencies Capacity for delivery of best available information to address government demand in support of decision making Authoritative, understandable warnings Combine hazard, risk and response information Dissemination Mechanisms Match resources and culture Sustainability, interoperability, reliability Integration of warning information in emergency preparedness and response actions Community based emergency preparedness and training programmes Feedback mechanisms to improve the system

Appendix VI, p.12 Example of Good Practice: France Vigilance System Hazards + NEW: Flood warning map Strong wind Strong rainfall Thunderstorm Snow/Ice Avalanches Heat waves Level of warning Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Warnings activate cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities Legislation Planning Authoritative Warnings Organizational linkages Training and feedback national to local authorities Example of Good Practice: Shanghai City: Multi Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme Governance : (mega) city level. Organisational: Top down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom up Operational: Community based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.

Appendix VI, p.13 Example of Good Practice: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh Cuba: Cyclone Early Warning Small country, 99% access to media (radio & TV), coordinated top down warning and response mechanisms ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELS DIFUSSION OF WARNINGS RESPONSE ACTIONS GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE, RESIDENTS TV RADIO PHONE FAX Warning INTERNET

Appendix VI, p.14 Provision of Specialised Forecast Products for Pre and Post Disaster Operations Example: WMO/UNOSAT partnership