TRAINING WORKSHOP REPORT ON IMPROVEMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN DJIBOUTI

TRAINING WORKSHOP REPORT ON IMPROVEMENT OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN DJIBOUTI 17-21SEPTEMBER 2017 THEME: Tailored climate products generation by end users

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 1. Introduction... 5 1.1 Overall Objectives of the Training... 5 2. Training Proceedings... 6 2.1 Overview on the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCSs)... 6 2.2 Data management and data accessibility... 6 2.3 Climate Weather forecasting products... 7 2.3.1 Factors affecting Djibouti climate... 7 2.3.2 Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Climate Forecasts Products and Services... 8 2.3.4 Methodology for generation of drought early warning... 8 2.4 Climate Products dissemination and user Engagement... 10 3. Climate change services... 10 4. Summary and conclusion... 12 5. Recommendations... 13 ANNEX I: Web based sources of climate information... 14 ANNEX II: Training Programme on Enhancement of Climate Services in Djibouti, 17 21-9-2017... 16 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Global Framework for Climate Services was established to enable communities across the globe to meet the challenge of vulnerability to climate hazards. The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) countries including Djibouti are at risk from climate variability and climate change as they have the least capacities tocope. There have been major advances in the understanding of the regional climate, its variations and relatedimpacts. The quality, coverage and accessibility of climate-related data and the research,modelling and prediction of climate and its impacts are all steadily improving. However much moreneeds to be done, particularly to take account of and meet the needs of users and to developservices to meet those needs. The situation varies widely across the region some countries haveaccess to well-developed services while others have very little or even none. In some casesinformation is available but is not known to or accessed by users. Some countries areparticularly likely to suffer from shortcomings in capacity and their needs should be given a higherpriority. Knowledge of climate information relevant to changing user needs is evolving, but with limited knowledge and engagement of the users themselves. There is need for interaction between the climate information providers and users i.e., decision makers encompassing climate vulnerable people, households and groups, organizations, service providers and institutions at community, local and national levels. Through the GFCSs initiative, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in collaboration the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) supported the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Djibouti to improve its ability to provide user-oriented meteorological and climate products; and also elevate user s ability to access meteorological and climate data and to make use of these data for decision making at national and sub-national levels. The project launch was held at an inception workshop on 5 April 2017 at the Kempinski Hotel in Djibouti followed by Needs Assessment of the NMA on 6 April 2017. The training workshop on improvement of climate services was held from 17 to 21 September 2017 in Acacia Hotel, Djibouti. The participants for the workshop were drawn from Djibouti National Meteorological Agency, users from climate sensitive sectors such as livestock, Disaster Risk Management, Fishery, Ministry of Equipment and Transport (MET), Environment, Agriculture, Health, Energy, Housing, Aviation, National Road Agency, Water Resources and Marine, among others. ICPAC facilitated the training in collaboration with the NMA. The one-week training at national level helped strengthen NMA s ability to provide user-oriented meteorological and climate products. The ability of stakeholders to access meteorological data, climate information and make use of them for decision making at national and sub-national levels were enhanced. Other training activities such as the provision of seasonal forecast leading to a national climate outlook forum was undertaken. 3

The training output included 30 participants trained on access and use of climate information, tailored seasonal forecast among others. Before the closing of the training, an evaluation of the training by the participants was conducted and a network between the providers and users of climate services established or strengthened. 4

1. I ntroduction Continuous adaptation to risks, uncertainty, opportunities and impacts posed by climate variability and change is fundamental to resilient livelihoods and development. The ability to make good adaptation decisions and enhance resilience depends on, among other factors, improved access to, understanding and use of context specific and actionable climate data and information. Climate information is increasingly being recognized as a valuable resource for adaptation, climate resilience and risk informed decision making. Credible information about the past climate, recent trends and changes, likely future trajectories, and associated impacts is key to climate risk management. Furthermore, knowledge of climate information relevant to changing user needs is evolving, but with limited knowledge and engagement of the users themselves. There is need for interaction between the climate information providers and users i.e., decision makers encompassing climate vulnerable people, households and groups, organizations, service providers and institutions at community, local and national levels. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has since 2013 provided financial support through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to enhance the capacities of Eastern Africa region to adapt and respond to climate variability and changethrough the establishment of Climate Prediction Analysis Systemfor the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). KMA through WMO and in collaboration with ICPAC envisagessupporting individual ICPAC member countries through a follow up project to improve on Climate Prediction and Analysis capabilities. This is to better produce and disseminate climate information at national level. For a country to benefit from improvements in the quality, quantity and range of climate data, products and information, users need to know how to access the services, how to interpret the data/products/information (limitations in terms of accuracy and applicability, temporal and spatial domains, how the data has been quality controlled, how it has been produced) and who to contact for further information. It is for this reason that ICPAC with support from KMA and collaboration with WMO together with Djibouti NMA organized a training workshop on improvement of climate information uptake and user needs services in Djibouti. This training workshop complemented activities under the Climate System Information Services (CSIS) of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCSs) and is focused on the needs of the climate service users. The training workshop was designed to help Djibouti NMA strengthen its ability to provide useroriented meteorological and climate products and also enhance user s ability to access meteorological and climate data to make their use in decision making at national and sub-national levels. 1.1 Overall Objectives of the Training The overall goal of this trainingworkshop was therefore tohelp NMA improve its ability to provide user-oriented meteorological and climate products; elevate user s ability to access meteorological and climate data and to make use of these data for decision making at national and sub-national levels. It was also intended to empower the stakeholdersin the provision of drought-related products, tools, and services. Specific Objectives P rovide training and exchange of experience among key stakeholders in climate-sensitive 5

sectors at national levels, in the use of climate information for the management of climate sensitive sectors; I nform stakeholders of latest forecast information and tools at their disposal, in addition to garnering feedback; U nderstand and document the needs, challenges and recommendations of stakeholders for drought-related products, tools, and services 2. T raining Proceedings 2.1 Overview on the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCSs) The participants were introduced to the concept of climate services under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCSs). The purpose is to enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale. The five pillars of the GFCSs were given as the User Interface; Climate Service Information System; Observation and Monitoring; Research, Modeling and Prediction; and Capacity Building. The regional climate centres support multilateral efforts to address regional needs such as regional policy, data exchange, infrastructure development, research, training at service provision. The centres together with partners help organize Regional Climate Forums (RCOFs). The forum provides a platform that brings together climate experts and sector representatives to provide consensus based climate prediction and information, with input from global and regional producing centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, with the aim of gaining substantial socioeconomic benefits in climate sensitive sectors. The NMHSs do undertake observations; climate monitoring; data archive; data management; data exchange (i.e., data policy Res. 40) understanding weather and climate together with providing meteorological and related services in support of national needs under the framework. The principles of the GFCS and key priority areas of the framework was also highlighted to the participants. The concluding remark was that as a WMO Regional Climate Center, ICPAC helps the member states in capacity building on weather and climate related issues. It was stressed that MeteorologieNationale de Djibouti is the WMO recognised national climate services provider. The services rendered so far are seasonal forecast besides aviation services. 2.2 Data management and data accessibility Information on data management and data product generation through blending of satellite and observation data was introduced to the participants. They were taken through recent efforts by ICPAC and the member countries to generate 0.05 griddeddata sets through incorporation of satellite information to represent sparsely gauged locations by blending satellite based Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) datasetwith Stations(CHIRPS) using GEOCLIM tools. 6

This was followed by hands-on training on GEOCLIM and tools that are used by ICPAC to conduct data analysis and data management respectively. Access of these gridded rainfall data through the ICPAC portals and the ICPAC map-room was demonstrated. Unlike country maprooms in the region, ICPAC s maproom is endowed with future climate scenarios outputs at 50 km resolution analysed from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiatives 1. It was encouraged that major efforts to generate further products be put in place so as to maximize the potential use of such products and tools. Picture 1: Participants taken through hands-on training session on climate services tools 2.3 Climate Weather forecasting products Introduction to climate system, Trade winds, Walker Circulation, Hardley Cells, Ferrel and Polar Cells as they influence sources of rainfall predictors for the Greater Horn of Africa including Djibouti was presented. Demonstration on how these predictors are used to develop seasonal rainfall forecast was the key task under this activity. 2.3.1 Factors affecting Djibouti climate The evolving large-scale and regional scale circulation mechanisms, as well as the likely implications of regional and local scale features on distribution of rainfall is considered in forecasting over the region. The broad approach adopted for preparing the seasonal predictions consists of examining prevailing and expected oceanic-atmospheric drivers that is, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies over the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and indicators of regional climate, including the evolving Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), likelihood of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions developing over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and atmospheric circulation dynamics influencing the region 1 http://www.cordex.org 7

comprising of summer monsoons over Western Indian Ocean with potential for early transition to northeast monsoons. The training covered the concept of forecasting as related to weather and climate. It also covered the concepts of Dynamical and statistical weather forecasting as the participants were further taken through a practical session on the use of statistical forecasting tools such Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and the GEOCOF tool. Knowledge on forecast verification, test for forecast skills, consensus building and interpretation was inculcated into the participants. Demonstration and description of various ICPAC Regional Climate Centre (RCC) products was conducted, and these included highlight on both the mandatory and highly recommended WMO- RCC functions. Following a discussion on the country experiences in forecasting capacity and needs, it was noted that most of the country still has challenges in the generation and dissemination of climate forecast. 2.3.2 Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Climate Forecasts Products and Services The objective of Drought monitoring and Seasonal Climate Forecasts Servicesis to produce and deliver timely drought and seasonal climate forecast early warninginformation for early action. It contributes to preparedness and planning ahead of the season. Enablers of Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Identification of certain critical parameters and indicators for drought, and tracking these historical indicators to analyse for the frequency, duration and spatial extent of arid periods provides a crucial means of monitoring drought events. Typical indicators are based on meteorological and hydrological variables, such as precipitation, stream flows, soil moisture, reservoir storage, and groundwater levels. 2.3.3 Use of climate information for Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Droughts are slow onset, creeping into being, thus difficult to determine precisely when they start and end. No one single indicator or index can pinpoint the onset or severity of the drought event in a duration from months to years. You cannot prevent droughts from occurring, but it is possible to reduce the risks and lessen the impacts of droughts The products used to monitor drought in the region as well as Djibouti were discussed.drought monitoring technique entailscomputation of precipitation anomaly, percent of average precipitation, cumulative precipitation and percentiles time series, cumulative precipitation and percent of average time series, soil moisture anomaly, Vegetation index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) etc. 2.3.4Methodology for generation of droughtearly warning Rainfall is by far the most important indicator in detecting drought in its earliest stage. Lack of rainfall initiates a decline in crop and forage production, which may result in drought stress or even famine.the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was noted as an important tool that is receiving widespread acceptance in many countries. 8

The participants were trained on how to apply this information in the decision-making process or consulted before product development. The steps used to determine drought onset include: Monthly and seasonal precipitation in percent of average for meteorological drought (Figure 1) monthly soil moisture anomaly data for agricultural/ hydrological drought The NDVI data is used to measure agricultural drought Satellite information supplement observed station data Figure 1: Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types(source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska Lincoln, USA). All droughts originate from a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts cascade from this deficiency. Table 1: Types of drought and measurement of their indices 9

2.4 Climate Products dissemination and user Engagement The participants were exposed to the ICPAC rainfall and temperature datasets, and means and processes for the production of the 10 day, monthly and seasonal bulletins. The demonstrations were followed by hands-on training by the participants on the generation of rainfall and temperature products and the use of climate data analysis tools. The participants expressed their challenges in data climate information dissemination due to the limited knowledge of the climate users, and expressed the need to engage climate service producers and users for effective application of climate information at all levels. It was proposed that support be provided to users from various sectors to work together with NMA and ICPAC so as to generate sector specific tailored productsthrough training and capacity building. 3. C limate change services Climate change is among the most challenging issues of the present time. The wealth of climate information will be the basis for generating a wide variety of climate indicators aimed at supporting adaptation and mitigation policies in Djiboutifor a number of sectors. These include but are not limited tolivestock, Disaster Risk Management, Fishery, Ministry of Equipment and Transports (MET), Environment, Agriculture, Health, Energy, Housing, Aviation, National Road Agency, Water Resources and Marine. 10

The participants were introduced to the concepts on climate change, generation of regional climate models and access to the regional climate models including that in ICPAC repository and also through the Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Atlas for climate projection portal. There was also a demonstration on the use of climate change datasets and also on the generation of climate extremes and trends specifically for rainfall and temperature products. The interpretation of the climate change products was also done and later on the participants given hands on training on the visualization and interpretation of the climate change products. ICPAC division of Climate Change Service is developing web portal that will help users assess country Climate Models (GCMs) projections using well-established metrics and manipulation tools and receive outputs tailored to their needs.the system will allow users to access, visualize and manipulate the large data sets that are produced by climate models without having to download them to their own machine. Sectoral Needs from climate information providers Livestock The sector requests ICPAC to develop for the IGAD region prototype disease (Rift Valley Fever) and forage (use of NDVI data) prediction models. Experts of livestock need capacity building to better understand the impacts of climate variability on their sector Marine Provision of marine forecast Ship path based on sea conditions Water Resources Installation ofhydrological Stations and set up by the Rural Hydraulics Department within the framework of the IGAD HYCOS program. 11

4. S ummary and conclusion Timely provision of high quality climate data, information, products and services in support of decision-making in climate sensitive sectors will significantly reduce the negative impacts of climate variability and change. The key outcome of the workshop was climate services capacity enhancement of Djibouti stakeholders. One of the recommendations was the need for continuous capacity development of personnel from NMA and other users from climate sensitive sectors in Djibouti on effective use of climate services. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums (GHACOFs)serve as useful source to climate information and have become one of the most effective mechanisms for developing user-driven products and services and communicating those to users at regional and national scale. Thus, RCOFs are recognized as one of the key elements in the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. Sources of climate information were given to participants as shown in Annex 1. A drought preparedness and mitigation plan should be integrative and proactive, and should incorporate the following elements: Drought monitoring and early warning system; Drought risk and impact assessment; and Institutional arrangements, including mitigation andresponse actions and programs. The training workshop created an enabling environment for better access, use and application of weather and climate information. 12

5. R ecommendations Climate information needs to be service-orientated and integrated into decision making from national through to the community level. The success of resilience programmes will depend on their ability to create opportunities to strengthen climate services in the country. Additional support is needed to (i) strengthen the capacity of information providers, so they are able to produce more localised, timely and accurate climate information; and (ii) institutionalise two-way communication, between producers and endusers, so those who need it can continue to use information over time to build resilience. The generation and communication of climate information to build resilience needs to be linked to development processes through its insertion in sectoral plans and decisions on basic service delivery. The participants also expressed their interest for future capacity development especially in data management and accessibility tools and also increase support to the efforts of climate data rescue for their country. Concerns were raised that ICPAC should collaborate with NMA to provide training that would enable use and generation of weather and climate forecast and most so especially at the sub-national levels. The NMA to initiate provision of daily, 10-day, monthly outlook and marine services as well. Considerations: Recognizing that drought is a natural hazard that isquite distinct from other natural hazards in terms of its slow onset, spatial extent, and nonstructural impacts, the participants of the meeting recommend that Djibouti develop national drought policies and preparedness plans that address the unique features of drought. a vulnerability profile should be completed to capture the socioeconomic conditions of diverse population groups. 13

ANNEX I: Web based sources of climate information Rainfall sources of information:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/24h_precip.ht ml WMO lrf https://www.wmolc.org/modules/data/plot/plot_pmme.php?tm_id=1&cdepth=3&upnum=6&ca _id=101&s1=3&s2=1&t1=4 ICPAC products: 10-day, Monthly and seasonal, www.icpac.net/ FEWSNET, https://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/ewx/index.html?region=af http://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/index.jsp?lang=en 14

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ANNEXII: TrainingProgrammeon Enhancement of Climate Services in Djibouti, 17 21-9-2017 TIME SUNDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2017 0830 0930Hrs Registration Overview and Objectives of the Training The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCSs) 0930 1000Hrs Lecture 1: Introduction to climate system, Trade winds, Walker Circulation, Hardley Cells, Ferrel and Polar Cells MONDAY 18 SEPTEMBER 2017 Recap of Day 1 Practical session 1: Arrangement of rainfall data, 1981 2017 for the analysis Relationship between climate data and sectoral data: Correlation coefficient, ʎ TUESDAY 19 SEPTEMBER 2017 Recap of Day 2 Lecture 6: Concept of seasonal forecasticpac products Lecture: Contingency Table, ANOVA, Verification of forecast WEDNESDAY 20 SEPTEMBER 2017 Recap of Day 3 Lecture 7: Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Climate Forecasts Products& Services: input data, tools, products&services Practical Exercises on generation of drought monitoring products for the past season THURSDAY 21 SEPTEMBER 2017 Recap of Day 4 Discussion on Sectoral needs Agriculture/Livestock 1000 1030Hrs Health Break Health Break Health Break 1030 1120Hrs Lecture 2: Sources of predictors for Djibouti seasonal Forecast ITCZ and SSTs Gradients Practical session: Correlation Analysis, Statistical Tests, and significance Tests Lecture: Use of CPT tool for demonstration of Djibouti Forecast Practical Exercises on generation of drought monitoring products for the past season - All Participants Discussion on Sectoral needs DRM Water Discussion on Sectoral needs All Participants 1120 1210Hrs Lecture 3: Sources of predictors ICPAC Products and service: Development Practical : Demo on ICPAC tools Plenary discussion: conclusions for Djibouti seasonal Forecast Demo for ICPAC Maproom, ofregressionmodels using CPT for drought monitoring - on the training event and ENSO and IOD IGAD RCC tool Consensus climate forecast networking NMA 1210 1300Hrs Lecture 4: Sources of predictors Methodology to Communication of forecast in Practical : Demo on ICPAC other Workshop evaluation for Djibouti seasonal Forecast computeclimatology of Djibouti probabilistic and amount tools and products - Winds Monsoons and QBO All Participants All Participants 1300 1400Hrs Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch 1400 1500Hrs Discussion of systems affecting Rainfall in Djibouti All participants Trend analysis for rainfall in Djibouti 1500 1530Hrs Health Break Health Break Health Break Health Break 1530 1630Hrs Lecture 5: Overview on how the predictors are used in a regression model to make a forecast - Practical: trend analysis of rainfall and temperature for Djibouti - Sectoral use of seasonal forecast: Intraseasonal, onset, cessation, dry & wet spells National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) - Practical : Demo on ICPAC other products Plenary: Harmonization of results from both Systat and CPT tool - / Health Summary Feedback and way forward on products Workshop wrap up and closure 16