The development of space weather activities within WMO

WMO OMM World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water The development of space weather activities within WMO Jérôme Lafeuille, WMO ESTERS workshop Meteorology: from atmosphere to space,18-19 June 2015 WMO www.wmo.int/sat www.wmo.int/sat

Outline WMO OMM 1. International initiatives in space weather 2. Relevance of space weather to WMO 3. WMO ICTSW activities 4. The four-year plan for space weather coordination Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 2

WMO OMM International cooperation in «space weather»: (1) science perspective International Astronomical Union (IAU) Division E: Sun & Heliosphere International Living with a Star (ILWS) (Space agencies) International Union of Radio-Science (URSI) Ionospheric radio and propagation International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Space Weather Panel COST actions (Europe) International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) (UN-COPUOS) Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 3

WMO OMM International cooperation in «space weather»: (2) operational perspective COPUOS ISES ESA/SSA ICAO UIT CGMS INTERMAGNET Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 4

Space-Based Global Observing System coordinated by WMO and the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) WMO OMM Space-Based Global - Observing schematic - System coordinated by WMO and the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) - schematic -

WMO OMM Need further international coordination of operational space weather services To coordinate observing systems and plans To enhance/standardize global data exchange To foster best practices in space weather service delivery and coordinate such delivery when necessary To enhance operational capacity building Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 6

Outline WMO OMM 1. International initiatives in space weather 2. Relevance of space weather to WMO 3. WMO ICTSW activities 4. Outcome of WMO Congress and Four-year plan for space weather Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 7

World Meteorological Organization The specialized United Nations agency for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences. Is Space Weather a related geophysical science? WMO headquarters, Geneva Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 8

Major space weather impacts on Earth Ionospheric disturbances (e.g. scintillation) affecting radio wave propagation, including loss of GPS/GNSS signals Continent-wide radiation blackouts on HF radiocommunications Energetic particles perturbing/damaging satellites, potential risk for avionics, concern for crew/passengers on trans-polar flights Geomagnetically Induced Currents damaging power grids Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 9

Low-atmosphere impact on the ionosphere Ionospheric research activities in Japan (NICT): Ionospheric variation after a big tornado on Oklahoma, US in May 2013 Tornado Moore occurred on 19:45 UTC, May 20, 2013. Propagation of concentric waves was observed in the TEC for several hours Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 10

Why does space weather ma5er for WMO? It affects meteorological satellites It is monitored by these satellites It affects other meteorological infrastructure (radio-communications, GPS, radars?) Potential for integration of surface observing systems Physical coupling: - Ionospheric TEC affected by tropospheric waves - Radiative impact on stratospheric warming and chemical processes involving ozone precursors (ECV) Demand of integrated SW and met services: - services to aviation (ICAO Convention) - disaster risk reduction (multi-hazard warnings) - energy, surface transportation, etc. Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 11

Path Forward ICAO MET Divisional MeeHng conjoint with WMO Commission for AeronauHcal Meteorology (CAeM)- XV (July, 2014) RecommendaHon 2/7: That an appropriate ICAO expert group, in close coordinahon with WMO, be tasked to develop provisions for informahon on space weather a) requirements for space weather informahon services consistent with the draw concept of operahons for space weather informahon services; b) selec<on criteria and associated capability for the designahon of global and regional space weather centers, including the ophmum number thereof; c) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of space weather informahon services on a global and regional basis; d) considerahons on the use of space weather informahon and the various impacts space weather events could have on internahonal air navigahon Inclusion of requirements in Amd. 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for InternaHonal Air NavigaHon and development of a Space Weather Manual 12 12

Steps taken by WMO WMO Executive Council (2008) noted the potential impact and synergy with meteorological activity Inter-programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (2009) 16 th Congress called for strategy for global preparedness to space weather hazards (2011) Requirements from ICAO (2012) prompted ICTSW action Joint ICAO-WMO meeting (2014) discussed amendment (#78) of Annex 3 of the ICAO Convention to include requirements for space weather services Four-year plan submitted to 17 th Congress (May 2015) Report on: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER April 2008 Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 13

WMO OMM WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) Established under joint leadership: CBS and CAeM Canada United States Norway Russian Finland FederaHon United Kingdom Sweden Germany Belgium Poland Switzerland Ukraine France Italy Spain Pakistan China Korea Japan Mexico Thailand Ethiopiaa Brazil South Africa Australia ArgenHna Australia 26 WMO Members and 7 International Organizations Co-chairs: Terry Onsager (NOAA) and Xiaoxin Zhang (CMA) Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 15

WMO OMM WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) Mexico ArgenHna Australia Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 16

WMO OMM Main achievements of the WMO /ICTSW Observing requirements documented in WIGOS/OSCAR. A statement of guidance for space weather observations was issued Space Weather portal was set up to demonstrate near-real time products Support to CAeM for definition of space weather services responding to ICAO requirements Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 17

WMO OMM WMO Space Weather Observations Gap Analysis (Statement of Guidance) Addresses observing needs for: - Long lead-time forecasts - Alerts of hazardous conditions - Event climatology - Model validation - Scientific research Observing domains: - Ionosphere - Thermosphere - Geomagnetic - Energetic Particles - Solar and Interplanetary Statement of Guidance for Space Weather Observations http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/osy/sog/sog-sw.doc CGMS-43, Boulder,CO, May 2015 18

WMO OMM WMO Space Weather Product Portal Ten countries now contribute space weather products on the portal Enhance awareness of available products Near real-time use at no cost enabling demonstration in operational context Increase global participation in space weather services Facilitate intercomparison and harmonization of products Training module under development http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather CGMS-43, Boulder,CO, May 2015 19

http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather WMO OMM Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 20

http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather WMO OMM Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 21

http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather WMO OMM Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 22

http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather WMO OMM Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 23

Conclusions of 17th World Meteorological Congress (25 May- 12 June 2015) WMO should undertake interna<onal coordina<on of opera<onal space weather monitoring and forecas<ng with a view to support the protechon of life, property and crihcal infrastructures and the impacted economic achvihes, in an ophmized overall effort. The global, intergovernmental WMO framework will facilitate internahonal commitments & enable operahonal SW services. ResoluHon requeshng that the 4- year plan for space weather coordina<on ac<vi<es be presented to the Council for adop<on Naming and definihons of space weather to be re- examined Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 25

Unclear terminology Atmosphere State of the Environment Weather Science and applicahons Meteorology Use of satellites Satellite meteorology Space meteorology Earth- space Space weather Space meteorology Space weather Space meteorology 3 issues : Weather, meteorolology, are terms which refer to the Earth s atmosphere Different concepts: (1) Earth space environment (2) Discipline studying it Need consistent naming/definitions across the 6 official languages Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 27

WMO OMM Four- Year Plan for WMO Coordina<on of Space Weather Ac<vi<es In continuity with current ICTSW activity A framework for actions in 2016-2019 : To enhance internal/external visibility To mobilize more Members for more rapid progress To formalize interactions with other programmes To enable a coordinated response of WMO Members to ICAO requirements Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 28

WMO OMM High-level goals of the four-year plan: where can WMO best add value? Availability and interoperability of sustained observations (WIGOS) Collection and delivery of space weather data and metadata (WIS) Identify user requirements and develop best practices for services, where international coordination is required including aviation (CAeM) and emergency warning (DRR) Training and capacity building Facilitate transfer of science to operations and promote synergy between space weather, and meteorology/climate activities Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 29

WMO Four-Year Plan for Space Weather Activities Strategic level Coordina<on/communica<on/advocacy Partnership Products & services User requirements for product and services Develop best prac<ces in key areas: avia<on, public safety, infrastructures Training, capacity building Systems level Observa<ons Data exchange Analysis and forecas<ng Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 30

Systems Level Ac<vi<es Coordinate observational assets and plans to ensure interoperability and continuity of space weather observations (WIGOS) Take advantage of integration of meteorological and space weather observations where relevant Support information exchange through the WMO Information System (WIS) framework, standards, practices, policies Dialogue with meteorological/climate community on modeling and verification Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 31

Service Level Ac<vi<es Organize WMO Members to deliver coordinated services responding to ICAO requirements Prepare for extreme events in a multi-hazard Disaster Risk Reduction approach Analyze requirements for applications including ionospheric disturbances (radio propagation and GNSS), satellites, and ground infrastructure (power grids) Provide training on delivery and use of services Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 32

Strategic Level Ac<vi<es Build on partnership with: - Service providers (ISES) - Observations providers (e.g., INTERMAGNET, CGMS) - Scientific organizations (e.g., COSPAR, IAU, IAGA) - User organizations (e.g., ICAO and ITU) - Capacity building initiatives (e.g., ISWI) - Overall UN space policy framework (COPUOS) Emphasize synergy with core WMO activities Support involvement of additional WMO Members Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 33

Conclusions: within the 4- year plan. Members who are currently involved in Space Weather will join their efforts to share knowledge, best prachces and standards, observahons and products Other Members will be enabled to contribute observahons, delivery of warnings and other services, leveraging benefits InteracHon will be strengthened between Space Weather achvihes and relevant WMO programmes WMO s operahonal experience will facilitate transihon of space weather achvihes from research to operahons WMO Members will get organized to respond to ICAO requirements by 2018 Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 34

Merci pour votre a5en<on! Ques<ons? Meteorology: from atmosphere to space, ESTERS workshop, June 2015 35