Drought Decision Support Doug Kluck Regional Climate Services Director Kansas City, MO NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Information September 12, 2018 NOAA Satellite and Information Service
Mission and Goal Mission: To lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management techniques (NDMC) To improve the nation s capacity to manage droughtrelated risks by providing the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought (NIDIS) NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 2
Avoid at all costs NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 3
Considerations The Who, What, Where, When Sector, Region, Time-Scale, Indicator Specific Monitoring Tools vs Planning Tools Which to use, which ones, how? Drought Capacity States, Tribes, Communities, International, Sectors Comprehensive (holistic) Planning vs Reactive Planning Reactive Planning: setting triggers based on a particular index can be an issue Vulnerability assessment (drought tournaments, community input, scenario planning) Capacity building and/or education NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 4
Monitoring Tools Drought Impact Archive Planning Tools ND Historical Drought Data MC Outreach Remote Sensing
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Regional Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) Working with communities and existing networks to build capacity for better decision making for drought planning and mitigation. NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 7
Resources https://drought.unl.edu/droughtplanning/planninghome.aspx NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 8
10-Step Drought Planning Program 1. Appoint a Drought Task Force 2. State the Purpose and Objectives of the Drought Plan 3. Seek Stakeholder Participation and Resolve Conflict 4. Inventory Resources and Identify Groups at Risk 5. Develop Organizational Structure and Prepare Drought Plan 6. Integrate Science and Policy, Close Institutional Gaps 7. Publicize the Proposed Plan, Solicit Reaction 8. Implement the Plan 9. Develop Education Programs 10. Post-Drought Evaluation https://drought.unl.edu/archive/documents/ndmc/planning/10stepprocess.pdf NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 9
droughtmonitor. unl.edu The United States Drought Monitor Hosted by the NDMC as part of a 3-way partnership with NOAA and USDA Over 12.5 million hits a year Used in several USDA programs Used by the IRS for tax deferrals Many others!
U.S. Drought Monitor Change Maps At various time-scales of: 1 week 4 weeks 8 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 1 year Calendar year Water year NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
Many regional maps are available NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
Precipitation and Snow Expert Local Input and Impacts Indices: SPI/PDSI Most of the information analyzed each week falls into one of these categories. Authors now use roughly 40-50 unique indicators while creating the U.S. Drought Monitor map, but not all areas are represented equally by all pieces of data. Remote Sensing Soil Moisture Streamflow and Reservoirs
Historical Drought The Drought Risk Atlas will answer the following questions for users through the data and products available within the tool How does the current drought compare historically? How often does a drought of this magnitude happen (frequency)? When was the last time a drought like this happened? What is the likelihood of the drought continuing? What did the spatial footprint of the last drought look like?
Drought Risk Atlas droughtatlas.unl.edu
Multiple options within the user interface allows for the selection of historical drought information NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
Documenting the Impact of Drought is Important droughtreporter.unl.edu
Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo _1173_en.pdf http://www.droughtmanagement.info/ handbook-drought-indicators-andindices/ Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP). 2016. WMO-No. 1173. WMO, Geneva, Switzerland and GWP, NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER
Contacts: Doug.kluck@noaa.gov National Drought Mitigation Center (https://drought.unl.edu/home.aspx) Director: Mark Svoboda - MSVOBODA2@unl.edu Brian Fuchs - bfuchs2@unl.edu Kelly Smith - ksmith2@unl.edu National Integrated Drought Information System (drought.gov) Elizabeth Ossowski - Elizabeth.Ossowski@noaa.gov Britt Parker - britt.parker@noaa.gov Molly Woloszyn - molly.woloszyn@noaa.gov Case studies: Climate Resilience Toolkit - https://toolkit.climate.gov/ NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 20
www.ncei.noaa.gov www.climate.gov NCEI Climate Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/noaanceiclimate NCEI Ocean & Geophysics Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/noaanceioceangeo NCEI Climate Twitter (@NOAANCEIclimate): http://www.twitter.com/noaanceiclimate NCEI Ocean & Geophysics Twitter (@NOAANCEIocngeo): http://www.twitter.com/noaanceiocngeo NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 21
Integrates Key Drought Indicators: Palmer Drought Index SPI SPEI KBDI Modeled Soil Moisture NLDAS 7-14 Day Avg. Streamflow Precipitation Anomalies AHPS Precipitation Other data which are available U.S. Drought Monitor Growing Season: Crop Moisture Index Sat. Veg. Health Index VegDRI/ESI/etc. Soil Moisture Mesonets State/Regional data In The West: SWSI Reservoir levels Snowpack (SNOTEL) SWE Streamflow
State of Nebraska Governor s Drought Info NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 23