Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti; Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas; Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands; Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara; Central Bahamas; Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas A Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti; Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince; Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey A Surge Watch is in effect for Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach; Florida Keys Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 20.9 north, 71.1 west LOCATION: 40 miles (65 kilometers) south of Grand Turk Islands MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph) WINDS: 175 mph (280 kph) with gusts to 210 mph (340 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 70 miles (110 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 922 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 5 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: MEDIUM 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 40 miles (65 kilometers) south of Grand Turk Islands, is currently tracking west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph). Hurricane Irma continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with a very distinct eye. The NHC continues to receive data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that indicate that the winds remain at 175 mph (280 kph) an extremely dangerous Category 5 storm. The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma should not remain a powerful major hurricane for the next 3 days while it is heading for Florida or its adjacent surroundings. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear and the interaction with land should lead to gradual weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of a ridge of high pressure, but in 2 or 3 days the hurricane is expected to be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and northnorthwest should then begin. The forecast NHC track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF (Euro) have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma. This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. These hazards are already spreading across the Turks and Caicos and will affect the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will also spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday. 2. It has become more likely that Irma will make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for South Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, and will likely be expanded northward tonight. 3. A Surge Watch is in effect for portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worstcase scenario the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area. 4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of these impacts. Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands: 15 to 20 feet Southeastern and central Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Northwestern Bahamas: 5 to 10 feet Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions already affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands. storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area along the north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands: additional 1 to 2 inches Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas: 12 to 16 inches (isolated 25 inches) Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti: 2 to 5 inches Eastern and central Cuba: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Lower Florida Keys: 2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4
National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5
Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6
National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7
Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8
Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9
NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10
NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11
Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12
Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov NEXT CAT ALERT: Friday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13
* Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH 1 30 35 55 NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression 35 40 65 40 45 75 45 50 85 50 60 95 55 65 100 60 70 110 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic 65 75 120 70 80 130 75 85 140 80 90 150 Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat. 3 85 100 160 90 105 170 95 110 175 100 115 185 105 120 195 110 125 205 Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic 115 130 210 120 140 220 125 145 230 130 150 240 135 155 250 Cat. 4 Major Hurricane 140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14
About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 15