The information provided here is for informational and educational purposes and current as of the date of publication. The information is not a substitute for legal advice and does not necessarily reflect the opinion or policy position of the Municipal Association of South Carolina. Consult your attorney for advice concerning specific situations. South Carolina s Climate Report Card: Understanding South Carolina s Climate Trends and Variability Hope Mizzell, Ph.D. SC State Climatology Office South Carolina State Climatology Office Serves as the State s focal point for weather and climate information Archive, process, and disseminate South Carolina weather and climate data, to educate on current and emerging weather and climate issues Assist in forecast interpretation before, during, and after periods of severe weather Maintain an active research program www.dnr.sc/climate/sco 1
Is the SC Getting Warmer or Colder? SC Statewide Average Annual Temperature 1895-2017 Winter Maximum Temperature Winter Minimum Temperature USHCN database developed by NOAA. Stations chosen using criteria: -length of period of record -% of missing data -number of station moves and other station changes 2
Spring Maximum Temperature Spring Minimum Temperature USHCN database developed by NOAA. Stations chosen using criteria: -length of period of record -% of missing data -number of station moves and other station changes Summer Maximum Temperature Summer Minimum Temperature USHCN database developed by NOAA. Stations chosen using criteria: -length of period of record -% of missing data -number of station moves and other station changes Fall Maximum Temperature Fall Minimum Temperature USHCN database developed by NOAA. Stations chosen using criteria: -length of period of record -% of missing data -number of station moves and other station changes 3
SC Statewide Average Summer Temperature 1895-2017 Summer Minimum Temperature Comparison 1901-2015 1901-2010 1901-2005 http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco 4
Is it Wetter or Drier? SC Annual Precipitation Trend 1895-2017 Wettest Driest Annual Precipitation 5
Spring Precipitation Summer Precipitation Fall Precipitation 6
Winter Precipitation Fall Average Precipitation Comparison 1901-2015 1901-2010 1901-2005 SC Statewide Average Fall Precipitation 1895-2017 7
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Hurricane and Flooding Flood Mitigation Program Protecting Lives, Protecting Property Floodplain Management, Mapping, and Mitigation www.dnr.sc.gov/flood South Carolina Hurricane Landfalls 1851-2018 Years Without Hurricane Landfalls Number of Landfalls 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 October 2015 9
October 2016 September 2018 10
NOAA ATLAS 14 POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES Preliminary Analysis NOAA ATLAS 14 POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES Preliminary Analysis MARION : HURRICANE FLORENCE: Sept 14-17, 2018 30 25 25 Years 20 50 Years 100 Years 15 200 Years 500 Years 10 1000 Years Observed Precipitation 5 0 24-hr 2-day 3-day 4-day 7-day 10-day 30-day 11
MARION: 4-day Maximum Rainfall Totals 18 Rainfall (inches) 16 14 1000 Year 500 Year 200 Year 12 100 Year 10 50 Year 25 Year 8 6 4 2 0 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007 Years 12
HMGP Project Summary Catalyst: Flooding rains from hurricane Joaquin & Matthew Partners: SC Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office and MetStat Funding source: FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program & In-kind from MetStat Goal: Situational awareness and resiliency thru precipitation/hydrology online portal (MetPortal) for SC Key datasets: Gridded precipitation observed at various intervals (MetStormLive) Gridded precipitation forecasts at various intervals (WRF) Precipitation probabilities (AEPs), used to identify areas of potential flooding Dense precipitation gauge network & integrated gauge history Personalized point and/or watershed-specific email & text alerts Timeline: MetPortal publicly available Spring 2020 39 13
Sample case: Hurricane Michael in MetPortal 1-hour precip ending 11 Oct 2018 at 10 UTC *Conceptual Design 40 Sample case: Florence alerts 11.81 ~ 95.6 year event 41 Extreme Precipitation Flood Alert System HMGP Project Currently in preliminary development phase Seeking participants for a 5-minute survey Please share with interested colleagues Responses due November 30th Survey available at: goo.gl/cpmcrb Contact info: Hope Mizzell: MizzellH@dnr.sc.gov Tye Parzbok: tyep@metstat.com Katie Ward: katie@metstat.com Victoria Bahls: vbahls@metstat.com 42 14
Calling all Citizen Scientists www.cocorahs.org 2018 Winner of the COCORAHS March Madness Recruitment Contest 178 new observers http://www.youtube.com 15
Thank you Hope Mizzell, Ph.D. SC State Climatologist 803-734-9568 16