Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands: Understanding Potential Impacts and Their Implications for Management on Cape Cod

Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands: Understanding Potential Impacts and Their Implications for Management on Cape Cod C a p e C o a s t a l C o n f e r e n c e H y a n n i s R e s o r t a n d C o n f e r e n c e C e n t e r D e c e m b e r 7, 2 0 1 6 Photo credit: Mike McHugh, MassDEP Marc Carullo Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management

Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100 Rick Meyerowitz, 2008. From Forecast by Nicholas Blechman.

Project Objectives Understand potential for coastal wetland habitat conversion/loss under multiple scenarios of SLR Identify and assess opportunities for and barriers to marsh migration Engage stakeholders to better incorporate wetlands into adaptation strategies and planning efforts

Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100 United States National Climate Assessment (Parris et al. 2012), adjusted for local subsidence Projected Scenario Lowest Intermediate Low Intermediate High Highest Total Sea Level Rise (Boston) 0.249 m (0.82 feet) 0.706 m (2.32 feet) 1.385 m (4.54 feet) 2.164 m (7.10 feet) Project Timescale 2011 2030 2050 2070 2100 M o d e l s u s e d : Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM)*

Cape Cod Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels

Annual Change in Area (Ha) Average annual change in area by decade* from 2011-2100 for Cape Cod project panels. 150 100 50 0-50 -100 2011 2100 Macrotidal areas* Microtidal areas* -150 Dry Land Open Ocean Estuarine Open Water Regularly- Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Fl ooded Marsh Transitional Marsh Time Period (Decade) for Select SLAMM Classes D R A F T

Potential Salt Marsh Trends from 2011-2100 Cape Cod Intermediate High SLR Scenario > 3500 ha increase in reg-flooded marsh (low marsh zone), 225% > 5500 ha decrease in irreg-flooded marsh (high marsh zone), 87% Total loss of approximately 2000 ha of salt marsh, 25% Marshes draining to Vineyard and Nantucket Sounds are potentially more susceptible to loss from SLR than those draining to Cape Cod Bay (i.e., tidal range sensitivity). 100 Years of Estuarine Marsh Trends in Massachusetts (1893 to 1995)

Area (Hectares) Potential Upland Marsh Migration w/in 100 ft Buffer South Shore 2030-2100 Intermediate High SLR Scenario 800 600 Migration Area (MA) MA w/in Buffer 400 200 0 Low Int Low Int High High SLR Scenario D R A F T North River, Marshfield

SLR Scenarios Upland Marsh Migration South Shore 2030-2100 Land Use / Land Cover Distribution of Potential Migration Areas Low 103 Int Low Int High 177 425 Total Area (ha) Forest Agricultural Golf Course Residential Other* High 772 D R A F T 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2100 Marsh Migration Potential *For illustrative purposes only Lidar DEM 12 m 5m -2 m Marsh-Upland Border 2011 2100 Westport River - East Buzzards Bay West DRAFT Intermediate High SLR Static accretion

2100 Marsh Migration Potential *For illustrative purposes only C O A S TA L SQUEEZE Select SLAMM Classes Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Tidal Flat Westport River - East Buzzards Bay West DRAFT Intermediate High SLR Static accretion

Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels Chase Garden Creek

Chase Garden Creek Dennis Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2011 D R A F T

Marsh Migration Potential Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh 2100 Marsh-Upland Border 2011 2100 D R A F T

Marsh Migration Potential Intermediate High SLR Static accretion Lidar DEM 10 m 5 m -0.5 m Marsh-Upland Border 2011 2100 Impervious Surface D R A F T

Cape Cod SLAMM Project Panels Nauset Marsh

Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2011 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2030 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2050 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2070 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

Nauset Marsh Eastham Intermediate High SLR Static accretion 2100 Impervious Surface Select SLAMM Classes Upland Tidal Swamp Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub Regularly-Flooded Marsh Irregularly-Flooded Marsh Non-tidal Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh D R A F T

Potential Wetland Distribution by 2100 Under Four SLR Scenarios Parkers River, Yarmouth Low ~ 0.8 ft Int Low ~ 2.3 ft Int High ~ 4.5 ft High ~ 7.1 ft D R A F T

Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y L a n d C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g

Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g

Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Photo: Delaware DNREC

Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Illustration: Mass Audubon Photo: David Johnson

Anticipated Outcomes O u t r e a c h & E d u c a t i o n P o l i c y Land C o n s e r v a t i o n & Management R e s t o r a t i o n S p e c i e s C o n s e r v a t i o n B l u e C a r b o n A c c o u n t i n g Illustration: The Blue Carbon Initiative s Coastal Blue Carbon

Project website Next Steps Final SLAMM report Overview and highlights Additional data analyses and summaries Esri Story Map and MORIS web tools Stakeholder meetings Long-term monitoring projects Remote sensing and field-based <insert pic of CZM wetlands landing page, example Esri Story Map, etc.

Acknowledgements Funding U.S. EPA Region 1 NOAA Office for Coastal Management Project Team MA CZM MA DFG - Division of Ecological Restoration (MA DER) Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Research (PIE LTER) Project MassDEP Woods Hole Group Data Contributors MBL/PIE LTER USFWS Parker River NWR NPS Cape Cod NS MassDOT MA DER Waquoit Bay NERR NOAA (CO-OPS) OPS) Woods Hole Group University of South Carolina Jim Morris Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. SLAMM 6.2 James Morris, University of South Carolina MEM 5.4.1 marc.carullo@state.ma.us