Weekly Weather Flash Oct.25- Nov.07 United States Oct. 25 31: October Ends with a Warmer and Wetter Week; Halloween Brings Tricks, Including Rain for Some and Scary Cold for Others Nov. 1 7: Cold Conditions in the West Boost Seasonal Demand, but the East Will Stay Warmer than Last Year Europe Oct. 25 31: Still a Warmer-East, Colder-West Split for the Halloween weekend Nov. 1 7: A Reversal of the Split, with a Colder East and Warmer West
October 27, 2015 United States Week of October 25 31 Temperature vs. Last Year Rainwear +13% Boots - 3% Electric Blankets - 6% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: The warmer end of October across much of the Central and Eastern US will hinder seasonal demand. Halloween outlook: Trick- or- treaters can expect a wet Halloween in the South Central region, though it will be dry and colder in the Northeast. Last year, the US saw a cold Halloween: The week started as the warmest last week of October since 2010, but later turned colder, and Halloween was the coldest it had been since 2006. Tropical rain in the East: Remnant rainfall from Hurricane Patricia will move northeastward from the central Gulf Coast to New England through the middle of the week. A low pressure system will bring rain from the Pacific Northwest to the southern Rockies and Southern Plains by the week s end. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 2
October 27, 2015 United States Week of November 1-7 Temperature vs. Last Year Heaters - 10% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Demand for seasonal merchandise in the East will continue to be limited due to the warm weather, while demand for hot consumables and cold weather apparel can be expected in the West. Last year, this week was the warmest since 2010: The US saw the warmest and wettest first week of November since 2010, though interior locations in the Northeast received the greatest snowfall they had seen in the beginning of November since 1993. Continued warmth in the East: The unseasonably warm temperatures for areas east of the Rocky Mountains will make it feel not very fall- like in the East. Rain and mountain snow: A series of low pressure systems will bring rain and higher- elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin. Light rain showers are likely from the Plains to the East Coast. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 3
October 27, 2015 Europe Week of October 25 31 Temperature vs. Last Year Knitwear (Hungary) Porridge (Great Britain) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: The colder West can expect improved seasonal demand, while warmth in the East will limit demand for fall categories. Continued East- West split: The West will remain colder than last year, while much of Eastern and Southeastern Europe will register warmer temperatures than seen at the end of October 2014. Heavy rain in the Southwest: An upper- atmosphere low pressure system will edge closer to the western coast, spreading heavy rain from Southwestern Europe to Italy. The storms will weaken as they move inland, bringing lighter showers across the mainland. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 4
October 27, 2015 Europe Week of November 1 7 Temperature vs. Last Year Soup (Poland) Hoodie (Ireland) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Western Europe will continue to see positive weather demand for fall product categories and cold- weather consumables, though the weather will be warmer than last year. Fall demand will finally reach the East. A reversal of fortune: The pattern flips as Western areas become warmer than last year, while the East will trend much cooler. Scandinavia will keep its warmer- than- normal weather. The South will stay wet: Several storm systems will track across the Mediterranean Basin, generating more heavy rain. Some light rain or snow will move across Northern Scandinavia, while drier weather will cover the remainder of the continent. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 5
October 27, 2015 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852.6119.1779 China: 86.186.1420.3016 deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Filippo Battaini filippobattaini@fung1937.com Marie Driscoll, CFA mariedriscoll@fung1937.com John Harmon, CFA johnharmon@fung1937.com Aragorn Ho aragornho@fung1937.com John Mercer johnmercer@fung1937.com Shoshana Pollack shoshanapollack@fung1937.com Kiril Popov kirilpopov@fung1937.com Jing Wang jingwang@fung1937.com Steven Winnick stevenwinnick@fung1937.com HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: 852 2300 2470 LONDON: 242-246 Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0)20 7616 8988 NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9 th Floor New York, NY 10018 Tel: 646 839 7017 FBICGROUP.COM DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 6