Overview of Current Tropical Cyclone Products Generated by NWS Todd B. Kimberlain National Hurricane Center HFIP Ensembles Workshop Boulder, Colorado 20 April 2010
National Weather Service hurricane forecast and warning products are like a mosaic The National Hurricane Center paints the big picture... and the local Weather Forecast Offices tell the local story
Text Products Tropical Weather Outlook Special Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Weather Discussion Public Advisory Intermediate Advisory Forecast Advisory Forecast Discussion Surface Wind Speed Probabilities ICAO (Aviation) Advisory Update Position Estimate Valid Time Event Code Monthly Weather Summary Tropical Cyclone Reports Graphical Products Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Track Forecast Cone Surface Wind Field Surface Wind Speed Probabilities Cumulative Wind History Maximum 1-min Wind Speed Probability Storm Surge Probabilities Experimental GIS Products Podcasts (Audio) Media Videocast Briefings NHC Web Widgets
Tropical Weather Outlook ABNT20 KNHC (MIATWOAT) Atlantic ABPZ20 KNHC (MIATWOEP) East Pacific discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather potential for development within 48 hours brief description of active tropical or subtropical cyclones non-technical explanation of meteorology FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR IN THE BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER XXXX 200 am 800 am 200 pm 800 pm EDT 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm PDT
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook mirrors the text TWO issued at same time as text TWO High > 50% Medium 30 50% Low < 30% (20%) (40%) (70%)
Tropical Weather Discussion AXNT20 KNHC (MIATWDAT) Atlantic AXPZ20 KNHC (MIATWDEP) East Pacific 205 am 805 am 205 pm 805 pm EDT 305 am 905 am 305 pm 905 pm PDT issued year-round describes major synoptic weather features and areas of disturbed weather 4 sections: Special features (eventdriven): tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, areas of possible cyclogenesis Tropical waves (event-driven) ITCZ Discussion
Public Advisory (NEW FORMAT) WTNT31-35 KNHC (MIATCPAT1-5) Atlantic WTPZ31-35 KNHC (MIATCPEP1-5) East Pacific Plain-language text product originally intended for rip and read Headline or lead statement Summary information Watches and warnings Center location, motion, forecast Wind speed and forecast Hazards: Wind / Storm surge / Rainfall / Tornadoes / Waves and Rip Currents Recommended actions 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT 200 am 800 am 200 pm 800 pm PDT
New Public Advisory Format Section headers added Storm information first Changes to watches and warnings in the current advisory are highlighted Bulleted summary of all watches and warnings in effect
New Public Advisory Format Section headers Discussion of forecast motion and intensity and other pertinent information Storm hazards and impacts, shown by type
NHC Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products Intermediate Public Advisory Provides continuous flow of information Issued when watches or warnings are in effect Issued 3-hourly or 2-hourly if welldefined center within NWS radar range Not used to issue watches or warnings Content similar to routine public advisories
Forecast / Advisory WTNT21-25 KNHC (MIATCMAT1-5) Atlantic WTPZ21-25 KNHC (MIATCMEP1-5) E. Pacific 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT 200 am 800 am 200 pm 800 pm PDT Only source of all the forecast data Data is used in HURREVAC and other commercial tracking software Watches and warnings Center location, motion, minimum pressure and eye diameter Forecast positions, intensity and wind radii
Tropical Cyclone Discussion WTNT41-45 KNHC (MIATCDAT1-5) Atlantic WTPZ41-45 KNHC (MIATCDEP1-5) E. Pacific Free-form text product Provides the reasoning behind forecasts and warnings Discussion of relevant observations, model guidance, and the forecast uncertainties Includes table of track and intensity forecasts 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT 200 am 800 am 200 pm 800 pm PDT
Special Advisories Special advisory packages are issued when: Watches or warnings are required immediately Or when an unexpected significant change has occurred.
Update WTNT61-65 KNHC (MIATCUAT1-5) Atlantic WTPZ61-65 KNHC (MIATCUEP1-5) East Pacific HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 950 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA... THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN...NEAR PUNTO DE SAMA AROUND 0945 PM EDT...0145 UTC. MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR. Position Estimate WTNT51-55 KNHC (MIATCEAT1-5) Atlantic WTPZ51-55 KNHC (MIATCEEP1-5) East Pacific HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 700 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR CONROE TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. Issued for: Landfall Unexpected changes Issuance of international watches / warnings Issued between 2- hourly intermediate advisories when well-defined center within 200 nm of radar range
Overview of TC products The National Hurricane Center issues - 72-hour forecast of track positions, intensity, and wind speed radii - 96- and 120-hour track positions and intensities. Also included are - watches and warnings - brief storm surge, tornado, and rainfall statements Forecast Hour 3 (advisory issuance time) Position and Intensity 34 kt wind radii 50 kt wind radii 64 kt wind radii 12 ft seas 12 (TAFB/OPC) 24 (Day 1) (TAFB/OPC) 36 (TAFB/OPC) 48 (Day 2) (TAFB/OPC) 72 (Day 3) (TAFB/OPC) 96 (Day 4) (TAFB/OPC) 120 (Day 5) (TAFB/OPC) 144+ (Day 6+) [NHC/HPC]
Estimates of the Surface Wind Field There are insufficient observations of surface wind in tropical cyclones to accurately specify the wind field. Intensity estimates believed good to within 10%, with TS wind radii to within 25%, H radii to within 40%. Maximum extent of winds by quadrant from Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory: 64 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...175NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
Cumulative Wind History
NHC Forecast Cone Represents the probable track of the center of the tropical cyclone. Formed by connecting circles centered on each forecast point (at 12, 24, 36 h, etc.) Size of the circles determined so that, say, the actual storm position at 48 h will be within the 48-h circle 67% of the time. Forecast Period (h) 2009 Circle Radius (n mi) ( 04 08 errors) 2010 Circle Radius (n mi) ( 05 09 errors) 12 36 36 24 62 62 36 89 85 48 111 108 72 167 161 96 230 220 120 302 285
Surface Wind Speed Probabilities FONT11-15 KNHC (MIAPWSAT1-5) Atlantic FOPZ11-15 KNHC (MIAPWSEP1-5) East Pacific ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT 200 am 800 am 200 pm 800 pm PDT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)......50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)......64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 30 40 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 2 56 58 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 5 72 15 2 NA NA NA HURRICANE 95 26 X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 25 24 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 47 2 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 22 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 65KT 30KT 30KT NA NA NA - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
Surface Wind Speed Probabilities Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability
WFO Tropical Cyclone Products LONG FUSED: Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) Public Information Statements (PNS) Special Weather Statements (SPS) Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) Tropical Storm/Hurricane Wind Watch/Warning Flood Watch (FFA) SHORT FUSED: Extreme Wind Warning (EWW) Tornado Warning (TOR) Flash Flood Warning (FFW) Special Marine Warning (SMW...waterspouts) Severe Weather Statement (SVS)
WFO Tropical Cyclone Products Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) - Highlights expected impacts from multiple storm hazards over the local region. - WFOs begin issuing product as soon as initial watches or warnings are issued. Can also be issued when evacuation orders are issued, as well as to dispel rumors. - Text and graphical versions. - Issued around NHC advisory package, but can be updated at any time.
Graphical HLS Impact levels determined by combination of objective and subjective techniques. Takes into account probabilistic information, with a subjective human element involved. Descriptions of impacts by category are locally defined for each area.
WFO Graphical HLS Mouse-over feature for impact level description 24
Extreme Wind Warning Extreme Wind Warnings provide a new and powerful tool for WFOs to issue an EAS-activated warning just prior to destructive wind onset (radar-based; 4-min update frequency). For final action, shelter in place: Extreme Wind Warning: lead time 1 hour & average length ~50 nm (equivalent to approximately 4 small-sized counties). Very time, location and IMPACT specific. Only for sustained surface winds of 115 mph or greater (1.2 gust factor = 140 mph gusts); non-tropical SVR = 58 mph gusts!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml Archive Web Site ALL text and graphical products