Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Theory

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Theory CO2 Emissions Cannot Cause Climate Change For GLJ Petroleum Consultants San Francisco May 7, 2010 Ken Gregory

2 AGW: A Failed Hypothesis Friends of Science Reviews the scientific papers and presents the science that the MSM fails to report. Newsletters, radio, presentations, etc. An Environmental Protection Agency report says: The GHG/CO2 hypothesis as to the cause of global warming is currently an invalid hypothesis from a scientific viewpoint because it fails a number of critical comparisons with available observable data. Dr. Alan Carlin UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a political, unscientific organization pushing a political agenda.

3 ClimateGate: IPCC vs. Scientific Method IPCC Mandate: Investigate human-caused climate change Rewrite history to eliminate natural climate change Hide the decline of proxy temperature data Apply arbitrary fudge factors to increase warming trends Block scientific paper that don t support AGW Blackmail journals and editors that publish papers critical of AGW Illegally refuse Freedom of Information requests for data Refuse to share data and computer code Phil Jones: "no reviewer has ever asked to see the data" Scientific method requires access to data and computer code Need to replicate studies

4 IPCC Reports AR contains references to 5600 nonscientific, non-peer reviewed sources. Contains 42 errors WG1, 12 errors in WGII & III. Most expert reviewer comments critical of IPCC statements are ignored. IPCC fabricates evidence against critical comments Uses irrelevant citations Pretends model output is data Ignores all natural causes of climate change Ignores contrary evidence

5 Previous Warm & Cool Periods Climate always changes with no help from Man. Warm: Expanding civilizations, Cold: Famine, disease

6 Current Cooling All datasets show a small cooling since 2001, even though CO 2 levels have increased

7 Urban Heat Island Effect Correcting surface temperatures for the UHI effect would reduce the warming trend over land by half. The GISS corrects for UHI in the wrong direction in 45% of the adjustments. Hadcrut makes no adjustments. In the USA, only 11% of stations are in suitable locations, 69% are within 10 m of an artificial heat source.

8 Rural Temperature Adjustments Contiguous U.S. Temperature Trends Using NCDC Raw and Adjusted Data

9 GISS Temperature Adjustment UHI adjustments are supposed to removed the warming caused by urbanization. The adjustments are applied to reduce the past temperatures by up to 3 degrees Celsius. Example from Peru.

10 New Zealand Adjusted Temperatures

11 Surface Temperature Deception GHCN dataset lost more than ¾ stations since 1990, bias high latitude, high altitude and rural locations.

12 Hockey Stick The Mann hockey stick graph got rid of the pesky medieval warm period and the little ice age. Assigned 390 X more weighting to hockey stick cores Numerous other quality control problems.

13 Moberg Temperature Reconstruction Current warm period is neither unprecedented nor spectacular.

14 Yamal Implosion Tree ring study by Briffa. Used 10 tree cores since 1990, 5 since Only one core causes the uptick. The black curve uses 34 nearby cores that Briffa ignored.

15 Hide the Decline The IPCC trick was the deletion of inconvenient data after The divergence between proxy and instrument readings reveals that the proxy reconstructions are seriously flawed.

16 CO 2 Lags Temperature Changes Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature leads CO 2 changes by about 800 Years. CO2 cannot be a significant cause of climate change.

17 Runaway Greenhouse Effect? CO 2 accounts for 0.039% of atmosphere Each CO 2 addition has less effect If nothing else change, doubling CO 2 would cause 0.5 o C increase Models multiply the CO2 effect by large positive feedbacks from water vapour and clouds Actual data shows water vapour and clouds provide strong negative feedbacks

18 IPCC Uses Half the Water Vapour Two recent analysis of water vapour show the same profile. IPCC leaves out half of the water vapour.

19 Where s the Hot Spot? Actual Temperature Data Model Predictions

20 Models Versus Observations In layers near 5 km, the modeled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modeled and observed trends have opposite signs.

21 Water Vapour RH is Falling GCM show constant relative humidity (RH) with global warming. NOAA data shows falling RH, especially at the predicted hot spot.

22 Water Content is Falling in Upper Troposphere Rising temperature projections are due to projected increasing water vapour in the upper troposphere. IPCC multiplies the CO2 effect by 2.5 times due to increasing water vapour projections.

23 Clouds Strong Negative Feedback IPCC GCM assumes clouds amplify warming. Satellite measurements show heat-trapping high clouds decrease with warming, allowing heat to escape. Low clouds increase with warming, reflecting sunlight back to space. Both types of cloud changes provide strong negative feedback, offsetting the effect of CO 2.

24 Clouds Make Fools of Modelers Modelers falsely assume cloud changes are due to temperature But cloud changes (from circulation changes) also cause temperature changes. Strong positive feedback becomes strong negative feedback.

25 Ocean Heat Content ARGO array of 3341 free-drifting floats measure temperature and salinity in the upper 2000 m of ocean. 2.6 m of water has the same heat capacity as the atmosphere.

26 Ocean Heat Falsifies Climate Models The deficit of heat after 6 years of cooling is now enormous.

27 Observed vs. Predicted OLR The model predicted change of outgoing radiation in response to changing sea surface temperatures is opposite to the actual satellite measured response.

28 The Sun and Temperature 400 Yrs. Sun TSI versus temperature since 1600

29 The Sun and Temperature 3000 Yrs. Solar proxy C14 vs temperature O18 over 3000 years.

30 Solar Magnetic Flux The solar flux has been rising during the 20th century. Temperature response is smoothed and delayed 10 years due to the large heat content of the oceans.

31 The Sun and Cosmic Rays An active Sun diverts cosmic rays resulting in fewer low clouds and allowing more sunlight to warm the Earth. Cosmic Rays (red) and Low Clouds (blue)

32 Global Sea Level from Satellite Data Sea level rise since 2003 is half the rate since UC scientist says sea level rise has been accelerating. Calgary Sun February 5, 2010

33 Global and Northern Hemisphere Cyclone Energy Global hurricane activity has decreased to the lowest level in 30 years. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is the combination of a storm's intensity and longevity.

34 Arctic Sea Ice Northern sea ice extent in April 2010 is equal to the greatest of the last 9 years as shown below.

35 Antarctic Sea Ice Southern ice has been increasing slightly since 1979.

36 Antarctica Cooling

37 CO 2 Enhances Plant Growth CO 2 increases since 1950 have enhance crop yields by about 15%. CO 2 is a wonderful by-product of industrialization it helps feed the starving. Field experiments show a 50% increase in CO 2 increases wheat yield by 23% in dry conditions. A 300 ppm CO 2 increase would raise the productivity of woody plants by about 50%. CO 2 enhanced growth reduces and delays the destruction of animal habitat and species extinctions.

38 Question: What Limits Water Vapour to its Current Amount? Nature adds 240,000 X as much greenhouse gases to atmosphere as Man. Evaporation adds, precipitation removes water vapour. CO2 increase 1.9 ppm/year A 3% change in water vapour =100 % change in CO2 (HARTCODE) Up to cloud layer, water vapour controlled by saturation limit. Above cloud layer, water vapour small fraction of saturation limit. Additions at 8 km has 40 X the effect on OLR as near surface. If you don t know what limits water vapour above clouds, there is no way to estimate the effects of emissions.

39 Miskolczi Greenhouse Theory Greenhouse effect is locked to its current value due to the near infinite supply of water vapour and partial cloud cover. Developed HARTCODE line-by-line code Theory is developed by observations from TIGR database. Applies the minimum energy (maximum entropy production) The quantity of greenhouse gases is uniquely determined by opposing forces that form an optimum. Greater water vapour cools by evapo-transpiration Greater water vapour warms by greenhouse effect

40 Radiative Flux Spectrum

41 Global Energy Fluxes Overall balance: F0 =OLR Atmosphere balance: F+K+AA-EU-ED =0 Surface: F0-F+ED-K-S G =0 Arrow joints: OLR =ST+EU, SU =AA+ST Measurements: AA=ED; 2EU=SG ; 3ED=5EU

42 Energy Flux Relationships Downward radiation is equal to absorbed upward radiation. Upward atmosphere radiation is half surface radiation. Upward atmosphere radiation is 3/5 of downward atmosphere radiation

43 Atmospheric Kirchhoff Law

44 Radiation Fluxes Solve 8 equations, 8 fluxes (with F+K) Solve: Su = (3/2)OLR Fo=12 in units of 21 W/m2 Fo=12, OLR =12, F+K =9, Ed =15, Aa=15, Eu=9, Sg=18, St = 3. [Po =0] S u =εσt 4 Fluxes determined with given solar insolation. The greenhouse factor is not a free variable!

45 Radiation Transfer Equation Classical radiation theory has incorrect boundary conditions with temperature discontinuity at the ground. Real boundary conditions: o Surface Temp =near surface air temperature o Radiation loss is maximized for given surface temperature Gives optimum albedo (cloud cover) Gives optimum cloud height Gives optimum optical depth, which is locked at its current value Theory agrees with observations!

46 Optical Depth Optical depth(τ) is τ= ln(st/su) Maximizes the OLR for any ground temperature at a fixed optical depth.

47 Optical Depth Locked Optical depth satisfies radiation equilibrium (blue line) and energy balance (red line). Only one value satisfies both requirements.

48 Total Greenhouse Gases Optical Depth HARTCODE calculates the total optical depth (CO2 + H2O) for 61 years. The blue line is CO2 plus water vapour, green line is the linear trend. The pink line shows the trend from CO2 with water vapour held constant. Total greenhouse gases have not increased over the last 61 years.

49 Optimum GHG Equals Observations Su/OLR =(1+τ + exp(-τ))/2 Assumes minimum energy principle τ= theoretical τ=1.868 measured GA TIGR τ= measured 61 year NOAA average CO2 emissions replaces H2O

50 Cost of Alarmism US Government spent $79 billion to 2009 (20 years) to promote AGM. Exxon spent $0.023 billion. Carbon trading was $126 billion in Expected to reach $2000 billion/year in 5 years. Cost to Canadians $354 billion/year to meet Kyoto Cost of Waxman-Markey climate bill $180 billion/year Copenhagen Accord $30 billion/yr to $100 billion/yr 2020 Ontario spends $15 billion to subsidize green power..solar gets 80/kWh, 15 time market price.

51 Climategate Investigations Penn State University investigates Michael Mann (creator of the "hockey stick graph) Mann brings in $$ million of grants Oxburgh Report: reviewed 11 article, none of the hockey stick articles, interviewed no skeptics, considered none of the issues. Blames trick on IPCC rather than CRU, but IPCC authors are CRU scientists. Oxburgh is vice-chair of Globe International, a lobby group, chair of Falck Renewables, multi-national wind-farms. Boulton-Russell Inquiry: Appointed Geoffrey Boulton who worked for UEA for 18 years. The claim the CRU was discarding data known to be erroneous is simply absurd. There was no testimony to the Committee that the tree ring data was erroneous. The tree ring data goes down instead of up means that the data is a bad proxy mislead IPCC readers. The Committee says it is common practice in the climate science not to share raw data.

52 Friends of Science Our taxes should be spent to solve real problems. See Don t miss our annual luncheon on May 17, 2010 with Dr. John Christy, PhD, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama at Huntsville. Topic: "Global Warming: Where s the Alarm?