Robert Rogers, Sylvie Lorsolo, Paul Reasor, John Gamache, and Frank Marks Monthly Weather Review January 2012
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1 Introduction Data & Methodology Results Robert Rogers, Sylvie Lorsolo, Paul Reasor, John Gamache, and Frank Marks Monthly Weather Review January 2012 SARAH DITCHEK ATM
2 Introduction Data & Methodology Results Background Past Observational Data Studies Improvements in TC intensity forecasts lag advances in track forecasts (Rogers et al. 2006) mainly due to multiscale nature of processes (Marks and Shay 1998) Previous Studies: Used aircraft data to conduct case studies on TCs Results: General depiction of TC structure achieved Limitations: Cannot be applied to wide range of environments and TC structures Goal: Use airborne Doppler radar data to generate composites of the TC inner-core structure from multiple TCs, accounting for TC size!
3 Dataset Specifications Radar: NOAA WP-3D tail Doppler & lower-fuselage radar Sampling Size: 40 radial penetrations over 14 flights Storms: 8 TCs of hurricane intensity from
4 Lower-fuselage Reflectivity Composites H3 H4 H5 H5 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC H4 H3 H5 H4 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 360 km wide (Shaded, dbz) Fig. 1
5 Lower-fuselage Reflectivity Composites H3 H4 H5 H5 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC H4 H3 H5 H4 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 360 km wide Rainbands: from center to several times the eyewall radius (Shaded, dbz) Fig. 1
6 Lower-fuselage Reflectivity Composites H3 H4 H5 H5 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC H4 H3 H5 H4 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 360 km wide Concentric Eyewalls: 2-3 times radius of inner eyewall (Shaded, dbz) Fig. 1
7 Lower-fuselage Reflectivity Composites H3 H4 H5 H5 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC H4 H3 H5 H4 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 360 km wide Symmetric Eyewalls Asymmetric Eyewalls (Shaded, dbz) Fig. 1
8 Lower-fuselage Reflectivity Composites H3 H4 H5 H5 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC H4 H3 H5 H4 H5 H4 H UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC UTC 360 km wide Smallest Eyewalls Largest Eyewalls (Shaded, dbz) Fig. 1
9 Figure Generation Methodology Types Swath & Profile Composites Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) Vertical Profiles
10 Example of Radar Analyses Used In Composites Wind speed (ms 1 ) at 3-km altitude Plan View Swath Analysis Cross section of wind speed (ms 1 ) Profile Analysis A Hurricane Guillermo, 8/2/97 B A B A B Horizontal Spacing: 2x2 km 2 Vertical Spacing: 0.5 km Domain Size: 400 x 400 km 2 Along-Track Spacing: 1.5 km Vertical Spacing: 0.15 km Data: 10-km-wide region normal to aircraft track Fig. 2
11 Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) Fig. 3
12 Vertical Profiles MEAN OF: MEAN OF: Fig. 4
13 Figures Scales Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Convective-Scale Properties (Swath) Turbulent-Scale Properties (Profile) Variables Tangential Wind (Swath & Profile) Vorticity (Swath) Absolute Angular Momentum (Profile) Radial Wind (Swath & Profile) Divergence (Swath) Vertical Velocity (Swath & Profile) Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) (Profile) Reflectivity (Swath)
14 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Swath Analysis Profile Analysis (45 ms 1 ) (45 ms 1 ) (60 ms 1 ) (35 ms 1 ) (60 ms 1 ) (40 ms 1 ) v λ Fig. 5
15 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields RMV v λ r + v λ r Fig. 6
16 Convective-Scale Properties Vertical profiles of vorticity (10 4 s 1 ) Min. Vorticity (20 x 10 4 s 1 ) Inner Eyewall Edge Outer Radii Peak Vorticity (35 x 10 4 s 1 ) Peak Vorticity (1 x 10 2 s 1 ) Peak Vorticity (4 x 10 3 s 1 ) v λ r + v λ r Fig. 7
17 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Circulation Crossing Momentum Surfaces rv λ + fr2 2 Fig. 8
18 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Swath Analysis Profile Analysis Outflow Layer Low-Level Inflow Shown v r Fig. 9
19 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Eyewall Convergence v r r + v r r Fig. 10
20 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Swath Analysis Profile Analysis Eyewall Updraft Subsidence ω Weak Ascent Fig. 11
21 Convective-Scale Properties Vertical profiles of vertical velocity (ms 1 ) Melting Layer Effect Peak Downdraft (-7 ms 1 ) Peak Downdraft (-4 ms 1 ) Rainbands Outer Radii Inner Eyewall Edge Peak Updraft (10 ms 1 ) Peak Updraft (5 ms 1 ) Bulk Distribution (-1 ms 1 to 3 ms 1 ) Bulk Distribution (-1 ms 1 to 1 ms 1 ) ω Fig. 12
22 Turbulent-Scale Properties High TKE Peak TKE (Rainbands, Secondary Eyewalls) TKE = 1 2 u 2 + v 2 + w Peak TKE (v r gradient) High TKE Fig. 13
23 Turbulent-Scale Properties Vertical profiles of TKE(m 2 s 2 ) Inner Eyewall Edge Outer Radii Strong Turbulence Peak TKE (20 m 2 s 2 ) Peak TKE (8 m 2 s 2 ) TKE = 1 2 u 2 + v 2 + w Fig. 14
24 Axisymmetric Structure of Vortex-Scale Fields Stratiform Precipitation Fig. 15
25 Convective-Scale Properties Vertical profiles of reflectivity (dbz) Outer Radii Bright Band Inner Eyewall Edge Linear Drop Above Melting Level Rapid Drop At Melting Level Peak Reflectivity (55 dbz) Peak Reflectivity (50 dbz) Fig. 16
26 General Schematic
27 General Schematic Tangential Wind
28 General Schematic Relative Vorticity
29 General Schematic Radial Wind
30 General Schematic Radial Wind Abs. Ang. Mom. M a lost to friction in HBL Brings in high M a
31 General Schematic Divergence Radial Wind Abs. Ang. Mom. D I V E R G E N C E M a lost to friction in HBL Divergence Convergence Brings in high M a
32 General Schematic Divergence TKE Radial Wind Abs. Ang. Mom. D I V E R G E N C E M a lost to friction in HBL Divergence Convergence Brings in high M a
33 General Schematic Vertical Velocity
34 General Schematic Vertical Velocity Abs. Ang. Mom. M a approx. cnsvd.
35 General Schematic Reflectivity Vertical Velocity Abs. Ang. Mom. M a approx. cnsvd.
36 Follow-Up Questions for Discussion Could they have merged the profile and swath data to get a more complete picture? What if they used <50% of data in composites? What about >50%? r Is using r*= is the best way to composite inner-core TC observations? Downsides? RMW 2km Did any of the results in the paper shock you, or were results pretty much as we expected?
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