Climate, Weather and Renewable Energy. Prof. Frank McDermott, UCD School of Earth Sciences 30 th November 2017 UCD

Transcription

1 Climate, Weather and Renewable Energy Prof. Frank McDermott, UCD School of Earth Sciences 30 th November 2017 UCD

2 Energy Systems Integration Partnership Programme (ESIPP) 2

3 Energy Systems Integration Partnership Programme (ESIPP) 3

4 NAO EA SCAND Sea level pressure anomalies (mb) 4

5 NAO North Atlantic Oscillation EA East Atlantic Pattern SCAND Scandinavian pattern Sea level pressure anomalies (mb) 5

6 Maps on right hand side show correlations between atmospheric teleconnections (NAO, EA and SCA) and winter (December to February) rainfall and temperature NAO 20CR-V2 CRU-TS 3.1 EA SCAND 6

7 Reanalysis Datasets Reanalysis product Provider Spatial coverage Spatial resolution Years covered 20CR-V2 NCAR-UCAR Global 2 x 2 (~200 km) ERA-Interim ECMWF Global 0.75 x 0.75 (~78 km) 1979 present MERRA-2 NASA Global 0.5 x (~50 km) 1979 present MÉRA Met Éireann Regional 2.5 x 2.5 km present

8 Wind generation simulation This study used MERRA Reanalysis data 8

9 How does the NAO affect winter wind speeds? Average wind speeds (ms 1 ), for (a) all months with NAO+ values, and (b) all months with NAO (wind data from ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset ). 9

10 For NAO positive conditions - % change in winter wind speeds EA SCAND Zubiate, L., McDermott, F., Sweeney, C. and O Malley, M. (2017) Spatial variability in winter NAO-wind speed relationships in western Europe linked to concomitant states of the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143,

11 For NAO negative conditions - % change in winter wind speeds EA SCAND Zubiate, L., McDermott, F., Sweeney, C. and O Malley, M. (2017) Spatial variability in winter NAO-wind speed relationships in western Europe linked to concomitant states of the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143,

12 Effect of negative NAO conditions on WCF and Demand Winter 1987 Winter 2010 Cradden, L. and McDermott, F. A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters Submitted to Environmental Research Letters, November

13 Wind speed analysis using MÉRA new high resolution (2.5km) reanalysis produced by Met Éireann MÉRA best for Mean Error (ME) and RMSE at 4 of 7 stations studied for 10m wind speed. Best for Pearson correlation (r) at 6 out of 7 stations. Seánie Griffin s PhD results 13

14 Wind-Solar correlations Seánie Griffin s PhD results Reanalyses tend to overestimate the strength of the negative correlation between wind speed and solar radiation. Post-processing individual variables improves the resulting correlations. 14

15 SW Radiation Skill Scores Eadaoin Doddy s PhD results Difference in tail behaviour 15

16 Adaptive post-processing SW Linear least squares adaptive post-processing 30-day training window Eadaoin Doddy s PhD results 16

17 Spatial Patterns SW changes E-W and N-S MÉRA captures this, MERRA2 does not Land-sea differences now being investigated Representatiopn of clouds? Eadaoin Doddy s PhD results 17

18 Effect of NAO on winter SW radiation using new MÉRA dataset Joao Correia s PhD results 18

19 Effect of SCAND on winter SW radiation using new MÉRA dataset Joao Correia s PhD results 19

20 Some combinations of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns exert very strong effects on incident SW radiation during the winter months with implications for PV Joao Correia s PhD results 20

21 White et al. (2017) 21

22 Observations Model ensemble mean 22

23 Conclusions Large atmospheric teleconnection patterns (e.g. NAO) strongly influence wind and solar resources (as well as electricity demand) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominant driver in NW Europe but. Effect of NAO is strongly modulated by East Atlantic (wind) and Scandinavian patterns (incident short-wave solar radiation) New reanalysis data product from Met Éireann (MÉRA) significantly better for Ireland than previous large-scale low resolution products (ERA-Interim and MERRA-2) Effect of long-term climate change on NAO and other teleconnections not well understood at present. Recent progress on seasonal-scale and year-ahead predictability of the NAO by UK Met Office and others 23

24 Eadaoin Doddy Seánie Griffin Joao Correia The Climate and Weather PhD students check out their posters! 24

25 This publication has emanated from research conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland under the SFI Strategic Partnership Programme Grant Number SFI/15/SPP/E3125. The opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Science Foundation Ireland. 25