Yearly Updated Op-mal Climate Normal of CONUS Temperature and Seasonal Predic-on Skill

Transcription

1 Yearly Updated Op-mal Climate Normal of CONUS Temperature and Seasonal Predic-on Skill Peitao Peng CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Poster 1 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*on CPC has changed the OCN of CONUS temperature from K=10 to K=15, is K=15 really op*mal? Would yearly added data have impact to OCN for longer training period? Comparison of 4-types of OCNs: K(SS, CD), K(SS), K, K(SS, EOF) K(SS) K

2 Fidelity of Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses for Climate Applica-ons Aus-n King and Dr. Aaron Kennedy, University of North Dakota, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Poster 4 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Date Fidelity and error characteris*cs of severe weather environments in the latest genera*on of atmospheric reanalyses Iden*fied. Inves*ga*on of these environments using the best performing reanalyses and select simula*ons from the Community Earth System Model (CESM).

3 Assessing drought risk under climate change in the US Great Plains via evapora-ve demand from downscaled GCM projec-ons Candida Dewes, Im-az Rangwala, Joe Barsugli, Mike Hobbins Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, University of Colorado Poster 5 - Applica-ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic-ons and Projec-ons Mid-21 st century changes in Evapora-ve Demand (E 0, May-Sep) compared between original and downscaled GCM projec-ons The spa(al pa*erns and magnitudes of rela(ve change in es(mates of E 0 from the raw GCMs output (le> column) are faithfully reproduced by using the 4-km MACA downscaled projec(ons (right column), hence preserving the diversity of future climate scenarios offered by the different GCM projec(ons, and at the same (me removing the climatological mean bias in the GCMs %

4 Your Photo Iden-fying Blizzards in Present and Future Climates Dr. Aaron Kennedy and Brooke Hagenhoff University of North Dakota Poster 8 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Ques-on: How can we iden-fy hazardous weather events in climate models? Historical Blizzard Events High temporal (subdaily) output is now available for many climate models. A compe**ve neural network is used to classify weather states associated with historical blizzards over the Northern Plains. This classifica*on is then used to iden*fy payerns within a climate model. Classified States

5 Observed and projected climate extremes of surface temperature and moisture for Alaska Rick T. Lader1,3, John E. Walsh1,3, Uma S. Bhad2, Peter A. Bieniek3 1Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, 2Geophysical Ins*tute, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 3Interna*onal Arc*c Research Center, UAF Poster 12 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Alaska statewide average Temperature Days above 25 C Precipita-on Max 5day PCPT

6 Developing seasonal predic-ons of lightning poten-al for Alaska with applica-on to the summer wildfire season P Bieniek 1, U Bhad 1, A Sampath 1, R Thoman 2, R Ziel 1, S Alden 3, H Strader 3 1 UAF, 2 NOAA, 3 AICC Poster 13 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Date Most of the annual area burned in Alaska is due to lightning-ignited fires: seasonal predic*ons of wildfire danger need to incorporate igni*ons Average June Lightning Alaska historical lightning data need to be homogenized due to significant sensi*vity changes from network upgrades Lightning ac*vity increases with higher convec*ve precipita*on and atmospheric instability Lightning flashes per month

7 Seasonal Forecasts of Canadian Forest Fire Indices for Alaska using NMME Akila Sampath 1, Uma Bhatt 1, Peter Bieniek 1, R. Thoman 2, R. Ziel 1,3, A. York 1, R Jandt 1 1 University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 2 NOAA, 3 Predictive Services Poster 14 Applications of Climate Forecasts: Predictions and Projections Poster #, Session There have been major fire seasons in Date Alaska. Fire managers needed earlier predic*ons of fire in spring to prepare for the fire events. Apply seasonal weather forecast products (NMME CFS v2) to predict fires.

8 Marine Mammal Management Project Results from Course: Applied Arctic Climate Problems: From Science to Actionable Policy Allison Brooking1, Diana Campbell1, Georgeanna Heaverley1, Geneva Mottet1, Kaja Brix2, and Uma Bhatt1 1University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 2NOAA Poster 16 Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Ringed seal An independent group of University of Alaska Fairbanks graduate and undergraduate students acted as peer reviewers to determine if two species of Arctic ice seals, bearded seals and ringed seals, should be listed as threatened or endangered. natgeocrea(ve.com NOAA Fisheries faced issue, as well, ended up in court. Bearded seal Find out our recommendations: did we list? julienboule.com

9 Marine Mammal Management Project Results from Course: Applied Arctic Climate Problems: From Science to Actionable Policy Allison Brooking 1, Diana Campbell 1, Georgeanna Heaverley 1, Geneva Mottet 1, Kaja Brix 2, and Uma Bhatt 1 1 University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), 2 NOAA Poster 16 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons Problem: Determine if two species of Arctic ice seals, bearded seals and ringed seals, should be listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act. cbsnews3.cbsistatic.com Recommendation: List species as threatened Lack of conclusive evidence regarding biological adaptability Increase federal funding to establish baseline monitoring in the Arctic ecosystem

10 Your Photo Current and future vulnerability to invasive plant establishment in the Arc-c Coastal Plain of Alaska Madhew L. Carlson, Megumi Aisu, and E. Jamie Trammell Alaska Center for Conserva-on Science, University of Alaska Anchorage Poster 17 - Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons 2010 We map current non-na*ve plants in arc*c Alaska and invasion vulnerable landscapes Northern and high eleva*on regions of Alaska are currently resistant to invasion due to climate thresholds Invasion Date resistant 2010 Invasion vulnerable 2060 Increased risk of invasion over much of arc*c Alaska is expected by 2060 especially in oilfield infrastructure and floodplains by coldtolerant weeds Taraxacum officianle - Arc*c coastal plain Geographic payern of non-na*ve plant diversity by SNAP cliomes Invasion resistant Invasion vulnerable Overlay of anthropogenic footprint and floodplains with climate invasion thresholds

11 Introducing the Your Photo Alaska Ocean Acidifica-on Network Darcy Dugan, Alaska Ocean Observing System Poster 40 Applica*ons of Climate Forecasts: Predic*ons and Projec*ons The Alaska OA Network was formed in 2016 to engage with scien*sts and stakeholders to expand the understanding of OA processes and consequences in Alaska. Monitoring plahorms across the state are providing data and insights into OA drivers and current condi*ons. Research on the affect of OA on Alaska species is young but expanding. Studies on crabs and bivalves are underway. The network provides resources on monitoring efforts, links to data, an exper*se database, scien*fic ar*cles, and ways to get involved: