QPF Verification in Small River Catchments with the SAL Measure
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1 QPF Verification in Small River Catchments with the SAL Measure Pertti Nurmi Sigbritt Näsman & Antonios Niros Joint MAP D-PHASE COST 731 Mid-term Workshop Bologna, May 2008
2 Requirements for optimal spatial precipitation forecasts Occurence vs. non-occurence should be forecast Location (displacement) predicted precisely Amplitude (volume) predicted correctly Structure (size and shape; pattern) and spatial variability predicted properly SAL Entity-, Object-, Features-, Displacement-based family of verification measures (like CRA, MODE, ) SAL Originator Uni. Maintz / MeteoSwiss / DLR Software (Fortran code) available at FMI in mid-2007 Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
3 SAL features QPF in pre-specified area River/Lake catchment Three independent components addressing the quality Structure -S- Amplitude -A- Location -L- For a perfect forecast: S = A = L = 0 More details of the method in Wernli, Paulat, Hagen, Frei, 2008 (MWR) Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
4 SAL features S: Structure objects Perfect objects too small or too large or too peaked too flat A: Amplitude averaged Perfect averaged QPF under- QPF overestimated estimated L: Location 0 +2 Perfect wrong location of Total Center of Mass (TCM) and / or of objects relative to TCM Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
5 What s the truth? From precip observations to precip analysis Gauge data? Radar data? Used mostly in this study Merged Gauge-Radar data? Would like to use, but Which methodology??? Observed truth? ~ Uncertainty? Implications to verification! Interpretation of the results!?!? Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
6 SAL Hydrology Catchments areas in Finland: Sub-domains for SAL verification (b) medium-size river catchment Helsinki (a) small river catchment Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
7 Forecast Data 1. ECMWF QPF ~ 25 km 2. HIRLAM RCR (Reference) QPF ~ 16 km 3. HIRLAM MBE (MesoBeta) QPF ~ 7.5 km 24 hr area accumulations used in verification 4. MetEdit = Forecasters grid edited QPF ~ 15 km o Radar QPE ~ 1 km o Gauge obs ~? Truth ~ 3000 km 2 Helsinki testbed area Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
8 Small catchment case study Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
9 Small catchment case study 9 November hour precip Radar ~ 1 km Helsinki Airport: 42 mm in SYNOP obs ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
10 Small catchment case study 9 November hour precip Radar ~ 1 km Helsinki Airport: 42 mm in SYNOP obs S: 1.07 S: 1.13 S: 0.94 S: 1.19 A: 0.41 A: 0.24 A: 0.35 A: 0.36 L: 0.12 L: 0.16 L: 0.11 L: 0.15 ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
11 Medium-size catchment ECMWF ~ 25 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Kokemäki river catchment HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
12 Medium-size catchment case 1 Radar ~ 1 km 13 April hour precip ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
13 Medium-size catchment case 1 Radar ~ 1 km 13 April hour precip S: 0.79 S: 0.81 S: 0.45 S: 0.72 A: A: 0.04 A: A: L: 0.10 L: 0.06 L: 0.02 L: 0.06 ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
14 Medium-size catchment case 2 Radar ~ 1 km 8 January hour precip -Snowfall! ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
15 Medium-size catchment case 2 Radar ~ 1 km 8 January hour precip -Snowfall! S: 0.65 S: 0.25 S: S: 0.04 A: A: A: A: L: 0.02 L: 0.04 L: 0.01 L: 0.02 ECMWF ~ 25 km HIR_RCR ~ 16 km HIR_MBE ~ 7.5 km MET_Edit ~ 15 km Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
16 Medium-size catchment Winter SAL Statistics (63 cases) ECMWF A Too large/flat precip objects, on average S Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
17 Medium-size catchment Winter SAL Statistics (63 cases) HIR_RCR (Reference) A Somewhat too large/flat precip objects, on average S Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
18 Medium-size catchment Winter SAL Statistics (63 cases) HIR_MBE (MesoBeta) A Slightly too large/flat precip objects, on average S Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
19 Medium-size catchment Winter SAL Statistics (63 cases) Met_Edit (EndProduct) - Frequent underestimation of amplitude S A - Slightly too large/flat precip objects, on average Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
20 Medium-size catchment Winter SAL Statistics All fcs aggregated - Stratified on parameter L 0.2 < L 0.2 < L < < L A S S S Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
21 Future (potentially) Need to better understand SAL behaviour Include AROME ~ 2.5 km model Already initiated! Cover more / all catchments (icl. Lake catchments) Apply gauge radar merged QPE as truth info i.e. analyse observation uncertainty Verification Already started! Compare with other object-based schemes (e.g. CRA) Operational implementation (?) Joint MAP D-PHASE_COST 731 Mid-term Workshop, Bologna, May
22 Grazie! for your attention
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