2007 PIRP Forecast Performance
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1 Presented at the PIRP Workshop Folsom, CA May 30, PIRP Forecast Performance John W. Zack AWS Truewind LLC Albany, New York
2 Reference Info PIRP forecast specs Overview How PIRP Forecasts are produced Overview of PIRP 2007 Examples of 2007 PIR Data Quality and Forecast Performance Summary
3 PIRP Forecast Specifications Next Operating Hour Forecast (NOHF) Definition: Hour starting 2 hr 45 min after forecast delivery (essentially a 3 to 4 hr ahead forecast) Target Performance ly MAE < 12% of installed capacity ly Bias < 0.6% of monthly production Exceptional Performance ly MAE < 10% of installed capacity ly Bias < 0.1% of monthly production Next Day Forecast (NDF) Forecast delivered by 5:30 AM PT and covers all of the hours of the following calendar day Extended forecasts before weekends and holidays No performance criteria
4 How PIRP Forecasts are Produced
5 Forecast Bias Minimization Procedure PIRP power production forecasts are adjusted to minimize the monthly net deviation (I.e. the monthly forecast bias) External correction procedure is used Net Deviation (ND) is calculated from start of month: curren t hour ND = ( F i O i ) i=first hr of month Bias adjustment is calculated from ND for each forecast hour: F biasadj = F 0 C * ND Adjustment phased in between X th and 10th of month C = 0 from 1st to X th of month C linearly increases to max value from X th to 10th C remains at max value from 11th to end of month Hourly adjustment limited to the average magnitude of the MAE
6 2007 PIRP Overview Data Availability Forecast Performance
7 Data Availability (% of Hours with Valid Data) Facility Yearly Max ly Min ly % Hours % Hours % Hours % 94.89% 62.10% % 99.73% 58.33% % % 86.42% % 97.98% 18.55% % % 88.44% % 93.55% 60.89% % 99.58% 77.96% % 98.89% 78.36% % 98.92% 85.75% % % 85.08% % 98.19% 77.69% % % 45.70% % % 62.77% % 95.83% 45.56% % 99.58% 62.50% Overall 89.70% % 18.55%
8 Performance Metrics Net ly Deviation (NMD) F h = Forecasted Hourly Production; A h = Actual Hourly Production NMD = (F h A h ) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) A h F h = Forecasted Hourly Production; A h = Actual Hourly Production C h = Installed Hourly Production Capacity MAE = F h A h C h
9 Next Operating Hour Forecast Net ly Deviation (% of Production) Facility Net ly Deviation Net Annual Avg Mag Median Mag % mons < 0.6% Deviation % 0.37% 66.7% 0.74% % 0.30% 66.7% 0.69% % 0.68% 41.7% -0.01% % 0.68% 41.7% 0.71% % 0.36% 66.7% -0.18% % 0.44% 58.3% 0.27% % 0.87% 33.3% -0.01% % 0.74% 16.7% 0.14% % 0.40% 66.7% 0.06% % 0.59% 50.0% -0.28% % 0.19% 83.3% -0.27% % 0.37% 58.3% 2.18% % 1.05% 41.7% 1.07% % 0.73% 50.0% -2.51% % 0.41% 58.3% 0.73% Overall 1.88% 0.55% 52.0% 0.41%
10 Next Operating Hour Forecast Mean Absolute Error (% of Capacity) Facility Next Operating Hour Next Day Annual MAE % mons < 12% % mons < 14% Annual MAE % 22.2% 55.6% 19.83% % 16.7% 58.3% 18.60% % 0.0% 16.7% 19.43% % 100.0% 100.0% 15.38% % 66.7% 83.3% 15.63% % 33.3% 50.0% 18.44% % 25.0% 66.7% 21.17% % 16.7% 50.0% 20.57% % 16.7% 50.0% 21.41% % 8.3% 16.7% 17.80% % 100.0% 100.0% 41.41% % 0.0% 50.0% 20.64% % 25.0% 50.0% 17.44% % 16.7% 58.3% 18.77% % 16.7% 33.3% 24.49% Overall 13.32% 28.7% 54.4% 18.85%
11 2007 Data Quality and Forecast Performance Data Availability Data Quality Net ly Deviation Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
12 100% 2007 Data Availability and Quality Reference PIR vs PIR #12 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reference PIR Reference PIR 2007 Power Production Data Availability % Data Available 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PIR #12 PIR # Power Production Data Availability % Data Available Availability adjusted Availability adjusted
13 2007 Forecast Performance Reference PIR vs PIR #12 Reference PIR PIR #12 Median Net ly Deviation: 0.36% Median Net ly Deviation: 0.37% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts PIR #12: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Net Deviation 3.0 Net Operating Hour Net Operating Hour Annual MAE: 11.3% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Next Operating Hour 24 Annual MAE: 14.6% PIR #12: Next Operating Hour Forecasts Next Operating Hour
14 100% 2007 Data Availability and Quality Reference PIR vs PIR #2 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reference PIR Reference PIR 2007 Power Production Data Availability % Data Available 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PIR #2 PIR # Power Production Data % Data Available Availability adjusted Availability adjusted
15 2007 Forecast Performance Reference PIR vs PIR #2 Reference PIR PIR #2 Median Net ly Deviation: 0.36% Median Net ly Deviation: 0.30% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts PIR #2: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Net Deviation 3.0 Net Operating Hour 3.0 Net Operating Hour Annual MAE: 11.3% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Next Operating Hour 24 Annual MAE: 13.7% PIR #2: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Next Operating Hour
16 2007 Data Availability and Quality Reference PIR vs PIR #14 Reference PIR PIR #14 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reference PIR 2007 Power Production Data Availability % Data Available 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PIR # Power Production Data Availability % Data Available Availability adjusted Availability adjusted
17 2007 Forecast Performance Reference PIR vs PIR #14 Reference PIR PIR #14 Median Net ly Deviation: 0.36% Median Net ly Deviation: 0.73% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 0.28 Net Operating Hour Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Annual MAE: 11.3% Next Operating Hour PIR #14: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Net Deviation Net Operating Hour Annual MAE: 14.9% PIR #14: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Next Operating Hour
18 100% 2007 Data Availability and Quality Reference PIR vs PIR #4 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Reference PIR Reference PIR 2007 Power Production Data Availability % Data Available 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PIR #4 PIR # Power Production Data % Data Available Availability adjusted Availability adjusted
19 2007 Forecast Performance Reference PIR vs PIR #4 Reference PIR PIR #4 Median Net ly Deviation: 0.36% Median Net ly Deviation: 0.68% Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts PIR #4: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Net Deviation Net Operating Hour Net Operating Hour Reference PIR: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Annual MAE: 11.3% Next Operating Hour Annual MAE: 6.8% 6.5 PIR#4: Next Operating Hour Forecasts 2007 ly Mean Absolute Error Next Operating Hour
20 PIRP Forecast Performance Where does 2007 PIRP forecast performance stand relative to typical and expected forecast performance?
21 2007 PIRP Relative Forecast Performance Teal band depicts composite of annual MAEs (% of capacity) for many AWST forecast sites in North America Red points depict 2007 MAE (% of capacity) for next operating hour & next day forecasts 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% PIRP 2007 Next Operating Hour PIRP 2007 Next Day 0% Forecast Time Horizon (Hours)
22 2007 Summary Data availability and quality was again an issue 2007 Overall Data Availability: 89.7% A number of PIR-months had less than 50% availability Turbine availability was not reliably reported for some PIRs Met towers often not representative of turbine locations Pmax (Capacity) sometimes misstated or unrepresentative Net ly Deviations of NOHF were reasonably good Median Magnitude: 0.55%; Best PIR: 0.19% Worst PIR: 1.05% % of months < 0.6%: 52%: Best PIR: 83.3%% Worst PIR: 16.7% MAE was highly variable and dependent on data quality Overall NOHF MAE: 13.3% of capacity Best PIR Annual MAE: 11.3% (6.8% with misstated Pmax) Worst PIR Annual MAE: 15.3% Overall Next Day MAE: 18.8% of capacity Higher quality data -> Better Forecast Performance Note reference site data quality and forecast performance Other factors also modulate performance among PIRs (e.g. weather regimes)
PIRP Forecast Performance
Presented at the PIRP Workshop Folsom, CA April 16, 2007 PIRP Forecast Performance John W. Zack AWS Truewind LLC Albany, New York jzack@awstruewind.com Overview PIRP Forecast Performance Forecast Performance
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