Tour d ALADIN.

Transcription

1 Tour d ALADIN 22nd General Assembly, Krakow, 21 Nov. 2017

2 1- First results of the implementation of surface data Assimilation system «CANARI» on the Algerian HPC Model: ALADIN Cycle : cy40t1 Number of observations : Development of new products based on ALADIN, AROME and ALADIN_DUST outputs 2-1. Weather warnings Wind Rain Snow/Ice Extreme temperatures Thunderstorms Dust storms 2m temperature ( C) Algeria 2.2. Roads weather warnings for Algeria

3 Austria Development of a parameter/process based stochastic physics scheme for the claef prototype ongoing (convection permitting EPS based on AROME) Continuation of work on AROME-RUC Nowcasting prototype: Tests with Austrian Mode-S data, Tests with OPERA data Migration of ALARO and AROME to new HPC including upgrades (switch 12/2017) Tornado show case Vienna Airport : nice AROME performance source: : top left: INCA analysis top right: AROME forecast bottom left: IFS forecast

4 Belgium - ALARO running 4 x daily at 1.3km resolution (cy40t1 + Alaro-1 + ISBA) - Combination of Alaro-1 with SURFEX available in cy43t2

5 Bulgaria cy41t1 is operational since 1st of November 2017 There are two Models: ALADIN BG 5000 m horizontal resolution, 105 vertical levels, 72 hours forecast range AROME BG 2500 m horizontal resolution, 60 vertical levels, forecast range 36 hours Comparative verification of the old operational model and cy41t1 was performed during the e-suite running

6 Croatia RMSE Relative humidity - mainframe computer upgrade (288 cores total) - ensemble B matrix - testing quality of LBCs from different models - testing different LBC options - MESSI project (meteotsunami forecast) forecasts RMSE Wind speed RMSE Wind direction 2hPa MSLP standard deviation and bias starting from analyses computed using different B matrices 6 hours measured ARP LBCs +TOUCANS Mean sea level pressure measured (black) and two forecasts coupled to ARPEGE

7 Czech Republic Data Assimilation Algorithm Background error covariances were derived for the BlendVar System; 3D VAR is forced to act mainly on the small scale part of the spectra; Details in Bučánek and Brožková, Assimilation of MODE-S MRAR data in operations since June 2017 Future high resolution preparations on new CHMI supercomputer NEC LX to reach its full configuration in early 2018 strong precipitation case 29/06/2017 2km resolution, ARPEGE analysis dynamical adaptation, 6h precipitation sum fcst at +12h 2km resolution, ALARO 4,7km BlendVAR dynam. Adaptation, 6h precipitation sum fcst at +12h Radar & gauges verifying observations

8 France AROME Overseas recent improvements - New Sea Surface Temperature initialization, daily updated (see Figure below) - Coupling Arome with a 1D ocean mixing layer model - Ensure a smoother initial time stepping of dynamical adaptation (using IAU ) - Specifically tuned diffusion of hydrometeors

9 Hungary Data Assimilation: Experiments with non-conventional observations in AROME: GNSS ZTD and RADAR reflectivity and radial wind Very-high resolution tests (500m-1km with AROME): Modification of the shallow convection parametrization in the grey zone Research in AROME microphysics: Experiments of low-stratus cases, underestimated by AROME ICE3 scheme developments Tests of two-moment LIMA scheme Convection-allowing ensemble system (test AROME-EPS): Representation of model uncertainty with SPPT scheme Operational application of a time-lagged AROME-EPS

10 Morocco A paper in under review: GPS Meteorology: Validation and Comparisons with Radiosonde for the Moroccan GPS Permanent Stations A paper in under review: A two-step radar-gauge merging method for quantitative precipitation estimate with C-Band radar in Morocco AROME(2.5km,90L), 3DVAR CY41t1 every 3 hours, Conventional data Work in progress: impact of high vertical resolution within a nesting framework Impact of wind on data assimilation system in multivariate mode and flow dependent BMatrix First work on separately detecting fog and low clouds using satellite data and groundbased observations Work in progress: Verification using ECMWF analysis Work in progress in collaboration with aeronautical service 21st ALADIN General Assembly

11 Poland Pre-operational version of CROCUS snow model is ready and running every day, providing forecasts of snow depth and snow water equivalent. AROME forecasts are used as an input. Special products were prepared for hydrology forecast for river basins, as well as verification scores. E-suite of ALARO1-vB is running for several months now. Basic scores are better, compared to ALARO1-vA. RMSE for September 2017, 00 UTC runs temperature at 2 m ALARO-v1A (black) and ALARO-v1B (yellow) Map of snow depth for Poland Map of snow depth for river Dunajec Time series of mean snow depth for river Dunajec Scatterplot for snow depth Verification of snow depth for station Kasprowy Wierch Verification of swe for station Kasprowy Wierch RMSE for September 2017, 00 UTC runs relative humidity at 2 m ALARO-v1A (black) and ALARO-v1B (yellow)

12 Portugal Operations DA Local Progress Increasing the number of levels (46 60) Positive scores on 24-hour screen level forecasts by moving from a 6-hour to a 3-hour OI_MAIN cycling in AROME-Portugal with Iberian WMO BUFR data Increasing the number of daily runs (2 4) T2M HR2M --- OPER 3-hour DA 6-hour DA Model Development DA Project Activities Successful validation of Alqueva Lake physiography in AROME-Portugal for ECOCLIMAP-II New subroutine amdarwmo for processing WMO BUFR E-AMDAR observations over Europe in collaboration with OPLACE (CHMI) Hosting ALADIN Data Assimilation basic kit Working Days in Lisbon V10M

13 Romania Observations 24 h cumulated precipitation increasing the integration domain and the horizontal resolution (including the Black Sea) => better representation of precipitation pattern the amount of precipitation in south-eastern part of the country is not accurately simulated

14 Slovakia After discovering and correcting a serious bug in quadratic coupling (Fig.left) the ALARO-1vB with 4.5km/L63 on CY40t1bf07 has been declared operational on new HPC on 20/03/2017. It clearly outperforms previous operational version in most of the parameters (Fig. right). MSLP evolution: bugged and reference run T2m scores: old and new version Good performance of new operational system in cases of high impact weather. Example of strong wind event on 14/09/2017: correct indication of extreme wind gust. However in general the timing, intensity and localization of the extreme weather patterns is not always excellent. wind gust by ALARO-1vB 4.5km 33.2m/s Meteogram Nitra wind gust INCA analysis

15 Slovenia Upgrade of the operational suites and HPC cy40t2bf7 with ALARO-1vB physics 11 additional compute nodes, additional memory, robot tape library specific humidity increment due to assimilated radar reflectivities STD T2m NEW OLD BIAS drying First steps towards radar data assimilation moistening

16 Tunisia Operational & Parallel Suites 3DVAR Data Assimilation Implementation Models installed on the HP research computer Model version Spatial Resolution Vertical Levels Boundaries Time step ALADIN operational AROME CY38t1_bf.03 CY38t1op2 CY38t1_bf km 2.5 km 2.5 km ARPEGE 10km ARPEGE 10km ALADIN 7.5km 45 0s 45 s 45 s Background error covariance matrix computation and assessment for AROME 2.5 km & ALADIN 7.5 km HARMONIE Fig1: Vertical profile of the standard deviation of specific humidity (q), temperature (t), vorticity (v) and divergence (d) for AROMETUNISIE during winter (blue line), interseason (cyan line) and summer (red line) periods; AROME Tunisie (mean of the 3 periods) (blue dot) and ALADIN-TUNISIE (green dot). Configuration of AROME-Tunisia 1.3 km (CY40, Coupled to ARPEGE 10Km, Time step 45s,90 vertical levels Installation of the cycle 40t1_ bf.05 on HP computer AROME-MEDJERDA: a small domain over Medjerda catchment Model Inter-comparison: Motivation of migrating from Aladin 7.5km to Arome 1.3 on the new Calculator A sample of case studies comparing AROME 1.3 km and ALADIN 7.5 km was made in order to justify the cost of the new HPC as AROME 1.3 is much more expensive in term of computation cost. AROMEMEDJERDA The following illustrations, North-West system and East system, present two atmospheric systems that characterize the main perturbations over Tunisia where we can see that regarding the localization and the intensity, AROME 1.3 km is much more accurate. Case study 09/02/2017 North-West system Model version Resolution Vertical Levels Boundaries Time step Center N Points CY km 90 ARPEGE 10km 45 s (8.75,36.5) 128*85 The catchement of Medjerda, located in the north-western region of Tunisia, is an area at risk that suffers from severe flooding every year. As it holds the biggest river in Tunisia and several dams around it, Medjerda watershed represents an important hydrometeorological study area. From left to right : Observation, AROME 1,3km and ALADIN 7.5 km Case Study 29/09/2016 East system 24H Accumulated precipitations of 25/02/ from left to right : Observation, AROME-Medjerda 1,3km and ALADIN 12.5 km

17 Turkey Updates of HPC Resource New HPC installation and acceptance tests have been finished on July 2017 (SGI ICE XA 4032 core, E v4, 2.60GHz, 192GB DDR4 RAM/node, ~168Tflops peak) - Towards Operational 3DVar at TSMS (cy40) - Calculation of B Matrix with NMC method - Observation Pre-Processing: Using all available BUFR conventional data on GTS. Non-GTS-TR synop data converted from TAC to BUFR. Validation of high resolution data included in BUFR TEMPs. Operational use of SEVIRI radiances in GRIB. AMSU-A Brightness Temperature tested. Developing obs. monitoring tool in Python - Surface Analysis: CANARI configuration was run on the soil in cy40. - Coupling: ECMWF LBCs were successfully tested in the assimilation in cy40