!"#$%&'()#*+,-./0123 = = = = = ====1970!"#$%& '()* 1980!"#$%&'()*+,-./01"2 !"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH

Transcription

1 = = = = = 7 = 6!"#$% ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 6 November 211!" (211) !"#$%&'()#*+,-./123 N O N=!"# $%&=NMMMUNO=!"#$!%&'()*+=NMMNMN = NCEP/NCAR!"#$%&!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()!"#$%&!" !"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'(!)*+,"-./1234!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!!"#!"!"#$!!"P426.6 ==!"#A = ====197!"#$%&'()* 198!"#$%&'()*+,-./1"2 x1j3z !"#$%&'( 1.8!"#$%&.39 /1a x4z!198!"#$%&'()*+,- x5j6z 21!" x7j8z!!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&!"'()*+,!-.!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&%'()*+,-!!"#$%!"!"#$%&!"!"#$%&'()*+ $+!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()*+, -!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+#$,!!"#$%&'%()*+,!!"#$%&'()*+ x9j12z!"#$%&'(#)*+,-./!!"#$% &!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,%-./1!"!"#$%&'()*+&',!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+,-.)/%1!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$!"#$%!"! = !!"#$%&'()29CB4213!"#$%29BAC51B5!"#$%&'41537! 1981!!"#$%&'()*+ liuyuny@cma.gov.cn Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J

2 = = = = = 386!"#$% = 211!"# $!"#$%&!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& ====!"#$%&'()*+, -./!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()!*+,-./12 2!"!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$!"#$%&'( x2i12z!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,%-./1!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./ N==! ====NCEP/NCAR!"# 1979!"#!"#$ x13j15z!"#$% &' 197!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%& !" NCEP/NCAR!"# x16z!"#$!!"#!" !"# 3 hpa!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+ x17z!"#$% x18z! 3 hpa!"#$%&' ! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-$.!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()*+!"#$% 2 mm!"#$%&'()*+,- 7317E 355N!"#$%& x19j2z!"#$%&!!!"#$%!!!"#$%42.55n895e N7515E O==!"#$%&'()*+,-./ OKN==! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'197928!"!"#$ 1a!!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,-./(!"#$%&'()*+,!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"# 1 kg/m 2!"#$%&' 15 kg/m 2!"#$%!"#$%&'!" x21z!"#$"%&'()*!"#$%&'5 kg/m 2!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'(")**+,-!!"#$%!"#$ %&'() 6N (a) 5N 4N 3N 2N 1N 2E 4E 6E 8E 1E 12E 6N 5N (b) 4N 3N 2N 1N 2E 4E 6E 8E 1E 12E !"#$%&'()*!kg/m 2!"#$%&'(%)*+), Fig. 1 Distributions of the (a) annual and (b) summer precipitable water content (unit: kg/m 2 ) averaged over the period 1979J28 ( The two solid line boxes in (a) and (b) denote the south and north of the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC for short), respectively) 386 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J392

3 6!"#$%&'()#*+,-./ !"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$!"#$%&'()*+,! ====!"#$%&'()*+,-#./ 1b6 8!"#$!"#$46 kg/m 2!"#$!" 6 kg/m 2!"#!"#$!"#$%&'()812 kg/m 2!!"#$%&'()*! 52 kg/m 2!"#$%& 3 kg/m 2!"#!"#$%&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()"*+,-!"#$%23 kg/m 2 OKO==! ====!""#$%&'()*+,-./' 43 kg/m 2!"# 11 kg/m 2!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&!"#!"#$!!"#$%&'()*+, !"#$%&'()*%+,!"!"#$%&'(!2!"#$%&'()*+,-.1!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"!"#!"#$%&'(!" /%!" /% 15 (a) 1 5 J5 J (b) 1 5 J5 J !"#$%&'()*+ Fig. 2 Yearly variations of the (a) annual and (b) summer precipitable water content percentage anomalies over ARNC from 1979 to 28!"#.32%/a.5!"#$!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./.28%/a!!"#$"%!"#$!199!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,!-!" 2b!"#$%&'()* 1=!"#$%&'()*+,-./ %/a Table 1 Linear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitable water content percentage anomalies over ARNC from 1979 to 28 (unit: %/a) * G!"#$%&'.5!"# * *.7 P==!"#$%&'()*+,-.' PKN==!"#$%&'() ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+, 3!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%#&'()*+,-./12!"#$%&$'()*!"#$%!"#$%&'()!*+,-#./!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'()*!"#!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'()!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./123 x22z Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J

4 = = = = = 388!"#$% 211 7N 6N 5N 4N 3N 2N 2E 4E 6E 8E 1E !"#$%&'()*!kg/(ms)F Fig. 3 Distribution of the summer vertical integrated water vapor flux averaged over the period 1979J28 (unit: kg/(ms)) ====!"#$%&'(197928!!!"#$%&'()*+,- 4!"#4a!"#$%&'( kg/s!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"7 1 5 kg/1a 199!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+, kg/1a!"#$%&' 199!"#$%&'()* ====!"#$%&'()*+,-." 4b!"#$%&'!"#!!"#$ kg/s!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+! kg/1a!"#$%&'()*+&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$ ====!"#$!"#$%!&'()!"#$%&' ()*+,-!!"#$%&'()*+,- x2i12z!"#$ 2!!"#!"#$%!"!"#!"#$%&'#$()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-.%&*+/ 5!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$% x23z!"!!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$%&! /(1 5 kg/s) J1 J3 J5 (a) 6N 5N 4N 3N! /(1 5 kg/s) J (b) 4 2 J2 J4 J !"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$ Fig. 4 Yearly variations of the water vapor budget at the east, west, north and south boundary of (a) southern and (b) northern ARNC in summer (Positive and negative values indicate the inflow and outflow of water vapor, respectively) 2N 3E 5E 7E 9E 11E ! !"#$!"!kg/m 2 Fig. 5 Summer atmospheric precipitable water content differences of 1999 J 28 minus 1979 J28 (unit: kg/m 2 ) ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&$'()*+, 6!6a3!"#$%&'()*!"!"#$%&'()!"!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%&!"#$%&' 388 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J392

5 6!"#$%&'()#*+,-./ !"#$% 199!!"#!"#$%&'()!"#$!"#$%&'()*+!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-./1234!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"!"#$%&'()*#!"#$!"#$%&'()*+, 7 3!"#$%&'()*!"#$%&'( kg/1a! /(1 5 kg/s)! /(1 5 kg/s) (a) J2 J4 J J (b) 2 1 J1 J !"#$%&'()*+, Fig. 6 Yearly variation of the net income of summer water vapor over ARNC from 1979 to 28 (unit: 1 5 kg/s) (a) southern region of ARNC, (b) northern region of ARNC ====!"#$%&'"()*+, 6b!"#$%&'()*+,-!"!"#$%&'()**+,!!"#$%&'()*1!"#$!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'( 721!"#$%&'()*+!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()*+,-./12%!"!"#$!"#$%&' x23z!"#$%$&'()*+,!"!"#$%&'()*#+,-. ====!!"#$%&'()* !"#$199!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#$%&'()*!"#$%& 7 6N (a) N 5N 45N 4N 35N 3N 25N 65E 75E 85E 95E 15E 115E 6N (b) N 5N 45N 4N 35N 3N 25N 65E 75E 85E 95E 15E 115E 7!"#$%&'()*+,-.!1 5 kg/s Fig. 7 Summer water vapor budget (unit: 1 5 kg/s) at each boundary of ARNC (The solid and hollow arrows denote the southern and northern ARNC, respectively) PKO==!"#$%&' ====!"#$!" #$%&'()!"#$!"#$% &'%()!"#$%&'()! x9z!!"#$%&'!"#$%&!"#$%&'()*+,-!" Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J

6 = = = = = !"#$%&'()*+,-(.!/!"#$%&'()* 5 hpa!"#!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&'()!"#$ x24z!"#$%& 711E! 35N 5N 5 hpa!"# ====!"#$%&'()* 8!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$ 199!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+, x25j27z!" 1!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$%&'()*+,-.!"#$%&'()*+%,-./!"#$%&'!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#!"#$%&'()**+,!"#!"#$%.6.5!"#! /gpm !"#$%&'()* Fig. 8 Yearly variation and linear trend of summer regional westerly wind index (unit: gpm) ====!"#$%&'()*+,-./1!"#$%&'()*+,-!" !"#$%!&'()*+,-!"#$!"!"#$%&'!"#!"#$%&'( 9 15E!"#$%&'()*+,-. 758E!"#$%&'!"!"#$%&'()*!"#$%!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'(!"#$%&'!"#$!"!"#$ %&!"#!!!"#$%&'()*+,!"#$%&'(!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./12!"#$%&'()*+,-%./12!"#$% E 8E 85E 9E 95E 1E 15E N!"#$%&! J!!"#$%&'!"# kg/(ms) Fig. 9 Time-longitude cross section of 35J5N averaged zonal water vapor transport anomaly in summer over the period 1979J28 (light gray shadings: negative anomaly; dark gray shadings: positive anomaly; unit: kg/(ms)) Q==! ====197928!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$%&'()*+,-!"#$%&' ()*+!,-./1!"#$%&'()*+, -./!"#$%&'()*+!"!"#$!"#!"#$%&!"#199!"!"#$%!"#$%&'()*+,-./123!"#$%&'!"#$%&'()!"#$%&'()*+,-./1 ====!"#$%&'(!"# 39 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J392

7 6!"#$%&'()#*+,-./ !"#$!"#$%&'()*+, 199!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#!"#$%&'(!"!".5!"#$!"#$%! [1],.!"#$%&'()*+,-./12%3 [J].! : B, 1991, 35: 666J672 [2],.!"#$%&'()*+,=[M]. :!, 21: 1J2 [3] IPCC. Climate change 27: the physical scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 27 [4],,,.!"#$%&'()%*+", =[J].!", 21, 27 (4): 592J599 [5],.!"#$%&' : 1 : =!"#!"#=[M]. : =!", 22: 49J61 [6],,.!"#$%&'()%*+,-./!=[J].!, 25: 23 (1): 1J16 [7],,.!"#$%#&'()*+,!"#$=[J]. =!, 22, 24: 1J6 [8],,,.!"#$%&'(&)*+,!"#$=[J].!", 23, 24 (3): 152J164 [9].!"#$%&'()*+=[J].!, 1994, 9: 79J 87 [1],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"=[J].!, 23, 22: 14J24 [11],,,.!"#$%&'()*+,- =[J]. =!, 24, 23: 912J918 [12],,,.!"#$%&'()*+, [J].!, 27, 28 (3): 434J442 [13] Yang S, Lau K M, Kim K M. Variations of the East Asian jet stream and AsianJPacificJAmerican winter climate anomalies [J]. J Climate, 22, 15: 36J325 [14] Inoue T, Matsumoto J. A comparison of summer sea level pressure over east Eurasia between NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and ERA-4 for the period of 196J99 [J]. J Meteor Soc Japan, 24, 82: 951J958 [15] Wu R, Kinter J L, Kirtman B P. Discrepancy of interdecadal changes in the Asian region among the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, objective analyses, and observations [J]. J Climate, 25, 18: 348J367 [16] Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 4 year reanalysis project [J]. Bull Amer Soc, 1996, 77: 437J471 [17],,.!"#$!!"#!=[J].!, 29, 64 (5): 61J68 [18],,.!"#$%&'("#)*+,!=[J].!, 25, 63 (1): 93J99 [19].!"#$%$&'()*+=[M]. = :!!", 1995: 17J25 [2].!"#$%#&'()=[M]. :!", 1992: 132J147 [21],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./!"#$%& [J].!"#$%, 211, 7 (2): 97J13 [22],,,.!"#$%& '()*+=[J].!"#, 26, 22 (2): 138J146 [23],,.!"#$%&'()*+=[J].!, 26, 16 (12): 1651J1656 [24],,,.!"#$ %&'()*+!"#=[J].!, 28, 3 (1): 28J34 [25] Frauenfeld O W, Davis R E. Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex trends and climate change implications [J]. J Geophys Res, 23, 18 (D14): 4423J4436 [26],,.!"#$%&'()*+,-./ =[J].!"#$, 26, 11 (5) : 593J64 [27].!"#$%&'()*+,-./1=[J].!, 29, 14: 12J13 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J

8 = = = = = Variations of Atmospheric Water Resources over the Arid Region of Northwest China and Its Causes Liu Yunyun 1, Zhang Xueqin 2 (1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 181, China; 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 111, China) Abstract: Based on the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 to 28, this paper has analyzed the variations of the atmospheric water resource over the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC) from the aspects of water vapor transport, precipitable water vapor and water vapor budget, and then has revealed the main causes of the variability. The results show that the annual precipitable water vapor over ARNC has shown increasing trend during the recent 3 years, while the summer water vapor net income has displayed an even more remarkable increasing trend. The westerly water vapor transport in the middle latitude had very important contribution to the variability of the atmospheric water resource over ARNC. The interdecadal descending characters of the regional westerly wind index implies the weakening of the water vapor transport both at the eastern and western boundary of ARNC, the descending trend of the water vapor budget at the eastern boundary, however, was much more significant than that at the western boundary due to the effects of the huge geomorphological structure of ARNC, thereby resulting in a lot of water vapor stranded in the arid region, and the total summer water vapor budget increased. Key words: arid region of Northwest China (ARNC); water vapor transport; precipitable water content; water vapor budget 392 Adv. Clim. Change Res., 211, 7 (6): 385J392