Evalua&ng theories for severe convec&ve weather using numerical simula&on
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1 Evalua&ng theories for severe convec&ve weather using numerical simula&on George H. Bryan NCAR Workshop on Severe Weather and Climate 15 March 2013 NCAR is sponsored by the Na&onal Science Founda&on
2 Main Points There are reasons why global warming (as currently proceeding) could lead to fewer tornadoes Numerical modeling of tornadic storms can be used to evaluate ideas but it requires a lot of computer resources, and hasn t been explored fully
3 Main Points There are reasons why global warming (as currently proceeding) could lead to fewer tornadoes Numerical modeling of tornadic storms can be used to evaluate ideas but it requires a lot of computer resources, and hasn t been explored fully Details
4 A Hypothesis (commonly presented to media) Temperature increases, and rela&ve humidity stay roughly the same, therefore water vapor mixing ra&o increases, therefore storms have stronger updraus (more CAPE), therefore more tornadoes will occur.
5 A Hypothesis (commonly presented to media) Temperature increases, and rela&ve humidity stay roughly the same, therefore water vapor mixing ra&o increases, therefore storms have stronger updraus (more CAPE), [I don t disagree with any of these points] therefore more tornadoes will occur. [I would call this a reasonable hypothesis that needs evaluation]
6 Other Ingredients SPC s Significant Tornado Parameter, STP (Thompson et al 2003) STP = (CAPE/1500 J kg- 1) ((2000- LCL)/1000 m) [this term set to 1 if LCL < 1000 m, 0 if LCL > 2000 m] (SRH1/150 m2 s- 2) [0-1 km storm- rela&ve helicity] (6BWD/20 m s- 1) [deep- layer (0-6 km) shear] A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1
7 Other Ingredients SPC s Significant Tornado Parameter, STP (Thompson et al 2003) STP = (CAPE/1500 J kg- 1) ((2000- LCL)/1000 m) [this term set to 1 if LCL < 1000 m, 0 if LCL > 2000 m] (SRH1/150 m2 s- 2) [0-1 km storm- rela&ve helicity] (6BWD/20 m s- 1) [deep- layer (0-6 km) shear] A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1 Assuming fixed RH, increasing temperature yields higher LCL Suggests fewer tornadoes +10 m for every +1 C (assuming fixed RH) (in STP units, that s roughly equivalent to J/kg CAPE)
8 Other Counter Points More water vapor means more condensate (e.g., liquid water) thus more evapora&on, stronger cold pools thus fewer tornadoes perhaps more severe convec&ve winds (e.g., derechoes)? Uncertain role of tornadogenesis triggers Descending reflec&vity cores (DRC) and Rear- flank gust front surges (RFGFS) occur just before tornadogenesis in well- documented events Note: both are related to condensate (which is increasing)
9 Numerical Simula&ons Nonhydrosta&c, cloud- resolving models (e.g., WRF) run with grid spacing of O(10 m), can produce tornadoes: Gray shading: pressure perturba&on; Color volume shading: reflec&vity; Color at surface: θ perturba&on (Visualiza&on by Leigh Orf, Central Michigan Univ)
10 Hypotheses can be tested in controlled condi&ons For example, an evalua&on of 0-1 km wind- vector difference (ΔU): Maximum Circula&on at z = 1 km (60-90 min average)
11 Experimental Setup The Control environment: (based on North American climatology) CAPE: 2500 J/kg CIN: 20 J/kg Surface T / Td: 27 C / 20 C Surface θ e : 350 K Δθ e : 25 K LCL: 1025 m LFC: 1500 m Wind profile: L- shaped 0-6 km ΔU = 24 m s km SRH = 116 m 2 s - 2 Note: STP = 1.5
12 Experiment: Change en&re temperature profile by a fixed value (- 4, - 2, 0, +2, +4 K) Use the same RH profile Temperature profiles: CAPE: varies from 1300 to 4500 J/kg LCL: varies from 990 to 1050 m STP: varies from 1.6 (coldest sounding) to 0.8 (warmest sounding) Other details: - Δx = Δx = 250 m - Δz varies from 25 m to 500 m - Morrison double- moment microphysics - roughness length z 0 = 10 cm
13 Maximum ver&cal velocity
14 Total surface rainfall
15 Maximum surface windspeed
16 Minimum poten&al temperature perturba&on
17 Maximum near- surface ver&cal vor&city
18 Work to be Done True tornado- resolving resolu&on (~10 m) An ensemble of simula&ons would be best Vary ini&al condi&ons to get different realiza&ons Vary some physics parameters (e.g., raindrop breakup, surface roughness)
19 Summary Increasing temperature, with constant RH, might lead to fewer tornadoes more condensate, higher LCL, stronger cold pools Numerical model simula&ons are a tool that can sort out the pros (greater CAPE) and cons (higher LCL) these simula&ons confirm more rain, stronger convec&ve winds tornadoes: inconclusive (so far)
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